fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:54 am
0z GFS Snowfall (Kuchera)
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6z GFS Snowfall (Kuchera)
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I’d say it’s definitely coming in line with other models. 1.3 then 1.6” on the 6z. Fits closer to other models. Now just time to iron out the fine details.
It looks like the GFS is trying to tap the GoM for moisture. There is a crazy difference between the moisture in the 0z and the 6z. Makes it look like a bigger event.
Euro is rolling in now.
Exactly Aaron... need the energy to round the base of the trough at the right time to be able to interact with the cold air, pop that low faster, so the Gulf can be tapped. That's what the GFS did originally 3-4 days ago when it was the first model to blow up this storm. Foreign models then took over as the GFS lost it like usual.
3Z SREF has remained rock solid the last 2 days giving everyone a general 1-2". That is the mean mind you. There are a few weenie members like normal. I am seeing very few SREF members showing zero now so that's a better sign.
6z Euro appears to have bounced back North again. It has Northern edge of snow pushing into Indy and Columbus, unlike 0z which was Evansville and Cincinnati.
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the NAM has a really nice track and weak surface Low that travels almost right up the App before jumping to the coast. that would probably be a solid 4-8 " event for many including me.
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:54 am
the NAM has a really nice track and weak surface Low that travels almost right up the App before jumping to the coast. that would probably be a solid 4-8 " event for many including me.
6Z NAM is probably too amped up but I'd love for that to occur nonetheless.
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:54 am
the NAM has a really nice track and weak surface Low that travels almost right up the App before jumping to the coast. that would probably be a solid 4-8 " event for many including me.
Historically, those have been really good tracks for us in terms of snowfall. When the low tracks along the Appalachians, we usually do pretty good.
See what the models do in the next 48 hours as the energy comes onshore.
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:54 am
the NAM has a really nice track and weak surface Low that travels almost right up the App before jumping to the coast. that would probably be a solid 4-8 " event for many including me.
6Z NAM is probably too amped up but I'd love for that to occur nonetheless.
will need another day to determine if the NAM has a possibility or not. either way this is an accumulating snow event for many. up to this point I have had less then 1.5" so its time
Not surprisingly the Nam further south with the low compared to 6z
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The 6Z NAM was way juiced up and the reason is because the flow begins to back much sooner then other models. Trough starts to amplify before it gets to the MS River and that is how we score bigger snows and get App Runner lows. 12Z NAM has coming in south / weaker because the trough gets going later which brings in less QPF for us to work with.
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Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Finally, no precip type issues to worry about for you lol
