1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Some

[tron777]

This event looks to be all snow at this point due to a weaker and further south track. Expecting a wave / low to form along an arctic cold front on Thursday Jan 6th. GFS and CMC have went weaker. Euro is weaker also but still in the 0.20-0.25" dept for QPF. 2.5" of snow is the mean accumulation from the 12Z GEFS. 12Z UKIE is mainly a SE of I-71 event and virtually nothing north of Cincy. Hope to see the more amp'ed up solutions come back once the energy is sampled. But it might not. We'll see! But this looks to be the first legit event of the season for folks S of I-70 at this time and if the amp';ed solutions don't come back, it'll be south of us event lol

[Bgoney]

EU trend south the last 3 runs

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[BookNerdCarp]

EU trend south the last 3 runs



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Odd that our first storm of the season would be moving south. We are usually cursed with the move north LOL

[tron777]

EU trend south the last 3 runs



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Odd that our first storm of the season would be moving south. We are usually cursed with the move north LOL

Very true Matt... energy might have been over sampled. We'll know in the days to come.

[tron777]

18Z GFS took a step up one notch in terms of amping up the storm. Need to see that trend continue to bring the more appreciable amounts back we saw the other day. Like a 2-4" 4-6" type of thing. That one GFS run a couple of days ago showing 6-10" was lol worthy though.

[tron777]

Good morning all! GFS is still too progressive with the pattern and is trying to locate the storm again. It has it, but pops the low way too far east. You want this thing developing before it gets here since we'll have the cold air already in place. CMC and Euro models have went a bit stronger again with the look of this system and show a pretty healthy snow shield. We can even stand a bump up to stronger yet again if it were to occur. We just don't want to see that weakening trend again. I can't pick out any clear trends yet from the GEFS. From dry to even rain / snow as this thing gets too amp'ed up. That is overdone IMO (seeing any rain with this system), it's a matter of how strong it is for the low track and when does the storm phase and get its act together as the arctic front will have pushed in already on Wed afternoon. Where does it stop for the next wave to move along it on Thurs. Obviously, too early to make any calls, as we are currently in model watching and trend watching mode the next couple of days. I still like what I see overall.

[tron777]

Going to be another couple of days before the NAM starts to get useful. At 84 hours, the 12Z run shows the system for our possible storm, coming out of the Rockies Wed evening.

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[tron777]

Fantasy Land on the Short Range 12Z Canadian (RGEM) also.

prateptype.conus.png

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues to keep the flow more confluent and progressive so the energy gets sheared and doesn't do anything until real late.

[tron777]

12Z CMC a tad stronger then the 0Z run from overnight. Temps in the teens with 0.50" plus of QPF. I'll take that lol I don't think anyone would object to this outcome lol I think ratios will be good with this storm. Should have some good fluff factor to the snow. Degree of QPF is the biggest issue to resolve right now. You get us a 1/2" of QPF with teens and 20s for temps and you've got a nice system on your hands that is for sure.

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[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and nice to see posts on a possible winter event for us locally. About 10 days ago I had pegged that late on Jan 2nd or on the 3rd we had a good chance of a winter event. Well the secondary system went about 100 miles to far south and east and we will miss the action. At least my thought process was much better than December.

Time to look at the models and we know the bias of the gfs is to swing systems through quickly and that is happening with the system late in the week. Both the CMC and overnight Euro has a nice little system that moves just to the southeast of us and we get a nice little snow. Again we get a first front through here Wednesday to bring in some colder air then a second front that hopefully will develop a low pressure that becomes our late week storm. I believe Ratios should be probably 12-1 which can give a nice snow total even with just .25 inches liquid. That is the next question and how much influence does the GOM have with the system plus the latest cold front finally make it to the GOM which may be the first one of the year especially in the western GOM. The front itself can probably produce .10 by itself but we need some transport of moisture from the GOM to end up with a really nice event.

More to come later and Les mentioned the NAM and with the current system it was very late in showing the snows in the southern apps so not sure if the model is having problems but in a day or two lets see what that model is showing.

[tron777]

12Z UKIE is weak /. south showing a low track from the Gulf Coast states to Atlanta, GA thru Central NC. Swing and a miss.

[tron777]

GFS was really gung ho at first then dropped off. CMC and Euro have kind of taken over so far. Hopefully the Euro will maintain later on. Several more model cycles to go before any good trends will be obtained. It was worth starting a thread yesterday since a storm signal is there.

[tron777]

Energy comes onshore the Oregon Coast overnight Tues per the Euro. 1014 MB low on the 0Z run. 1011 MB now on the 12Z run at Hour 66. 1005 MB low over Central Idaho by Wed morning. 0Z run had it at 1007 MB getting into Western WY already. This should be a more north and stronger run like what we saw with the CMC should the look continue at 72 hours.

[tron777]

Pretty close to the 0Z run. So nice to see the weakening trend stop lol Temps in the mid 20s to start Thurs afternoon falling to around 20 by evening. It's over by midnight at the latest so a quick hitting event. Probably an 8-12 hour window. QPF wise: 0.53" at CVG We'll take it! 10:1 ratio for the below snow map, not 12:1 ending as 15:1 which is what I think we'll see.

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12Z Euro text data:

Code: Select all

CVG
THU 18Z 06-JAN  -3.5    -5.0    1017      64      99    0.04     544     531    
FRI 00Z 07-JAN  -6.4    -8.3    1015      84     100    0.34     537     525    
FRI 06Z 07-JAN  -8.2   -13.8    1019      82      76    0.15     529     514   

HAO

THU 18Z 06-JAN  -4.0    -5.4    1018      59      99    0.03     543     529    
FRI 00Z 07-JAN  -6.7    -8.7    1015      82     100    0.31     536     525    
FRI 06Z 07-JAN  -7.9   -14.3    1019      82      78    0.15     529     514   

MGY

THU 18Z 06-JAN  -4.6    -5.6    1018      57      96    0.01     543     529    
FRI 00Z 07-JAN  -6.9    -8.6    1015      83     100    0.29     536     524    
FRI 06Z 07-JAN  -7.7   -14.4    1018      84      86    0.15     528     514  

DAY

THU 18Z 06-JAN  -5.2    -6.3    1018      53      90    0.01     542     527    
FRI 00Z 07-JAN  -7.3    -9.1    1015      82     100    0.27     535     524    
FRI 06Z 07-JAN  -7.7   -14.6    1017      85      87    0.14     528     514   

CMH

THU 18Z 06-JAN  -4.0    -5.2    1018      50      78    0.01     543     529    
FRI 00Z 07-JAN  -6.0    -7.2    1014      82      96    0.24     537     526    
FRI 06Z 07-JAN  -6.5   -14.2    1015      83      93    0.25     528     516    
FRI 12Z 07-JAN  -8.4   -15.5    1022      82      50    0.01     529     512   

FGX - Matt!

THU 18Z 06-JAN  -1.0    -3.2    1016      58      97    0.01     548     535    
FRI 00Z 07-JAN  -4.3    -7.2    1012      84      94    0.18     541     532    
FRI 06Z 07-JAN  -6.9   -12.6    1018      83      96    0.20     530     516    
FRI 12Z 07-JAN -10.4   -15.0    1025      78      32    0.01     536     517    

[tron777]

Euro left and CMC right - Kuchera.

Euro and CMC Kuchera.jpeg

[allowat3]

The dogs are definitely barking after seeing those maps, I am holding their leashes another day or so before posting on my page.

[tron777]

The dogs are definitely barking after seeing those maps, I am holding their leashes another day or so before posting on my page.

I agree Mark. The hounds need to stay tempered for a couple more cycles.

[tron777]

18Z GFS goes from nothing to a swath of light snow over SKY.

[Bgoney]

GFS progressive bias in the long range is now correcting as we close in on the event in the medium range. I'll take a meeting in the middle kind of deal in the coming days

[tron777]

GFS progressive bias in the long range is now correcting as we close in on the event in the medium range. I'll take a meeting in the middle kind of deal in the coming days

To me, that would mean a 2-4" or a 3-5" type of system which would be great. If foreign models don't change, then a shot at warning criteria.

[tron777]

Just in case anyone forgot how to use the weather models while we track this system...

WeatherModels.jpg

[Bgoney]

No model changes overnight. After a reinforcement of cold air late Wednesday,
Both GFS/EU have a shortwave dropping out of the NW flow through the rockies and to our south. EU strengthens it into a perfect intensity and low track for most of the region, while the GFS keeps it weak and progressive.

[tron777]

Overnight AFD from the boys... they are discounting the weaker GFS at this time.


For the period Thursday into Thursday night, s/wv energy in the
west to northwest flow aloft is forecast to dig east from the
central Plains into the Ohio Valley. Operational ECMWF and CMC
models are stronger with this energy compared to the weaker
operational GFS. The stronger solutions allow low pressure to
develop over the lower MS River Valley, deepening as it heads
northeast through the Tennessee Valley to the central Appalachians.
The weaker GFS solution has been discounted at this time since there
is support for a stronger system from its own GEFS, which is further
supported by the ECMWF and CMC ensembles. The result will be a
precipitation shield which should rotate northeast across the
forecast area. It should be plenty cold enough for p-type to be all
snow. Ensemble probabilities at this juncture indicate that at least
a few inches of accumulating snow will occur, especially for our
southern/southeast CWFA. It is a little too early to give specific
snowfall amounts but will make mention of the hazard in the HWO.
Highs on Thursday will range from the lower 20s northwest to the
lower 30s southeast. Lows Thursday night will be much colder,
ranging from the single digits west to the mid teens east.

[tron777]

Good Monday morning all! My customer isn't back until tomorrow so should have time to talk about this system more in detail today since work will probably kick my butt beginning tomorrow.

Still love what the foreign models keep offering. CMC and Euro both continue to look great. OP GFS is slowly beginning to correct itself. GEFS is stronger then the OP with about 3 or4 members supporting the Euro and CMC solutions. UKIE is further north as well bringing in accumulating snow into the Metro. Low track is still too far south, but correcting towards the Euro and CMC solutions. Def want to see those two models hold for maximum snowfall.