As of 2/10, we are still in Phase 7 of the MJO per the Aussies. Looks like we have done a complete circle through Phase 7, so we'll have to wait and see if it can get into Phase 8 or not going forward. For snow lovers, I am still watching the period around the 16-17th. Yep , latest sat/precip shot ...

Purdy and calllahan couldn’t handle the blitz the second half . KC defense saved the day. Mahomes was Mahomes when it mattered most

Purdy should have changed his last name after all. I thought chiefs would win but it certainly wasn’t because Mahomes played well .. Both teams looked out of sorts, a strange one for sure.

18z Eu about the same as 12z

What a boring game

Along with the south trend , models are shrinking qpf totals during the window for snow accumulation and that would probably mean intensity of precip or dbz would be lighter or for a shorter period, at least on the western edge of the precip shield. For now the eastern edge looks safe

WA for counties along the river

Another beauty out there. Mid day temps

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 1:30 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 1:16 pm Euro with a pronounced jiggle

No doubt further south.

That’s 3 runs in a row the Eu has nudged south, each time about 20 or thirty miles . With such a small deform band that’s a lot. Maybe it an over correction and iit adjusts accordingly, or maybe not

Euro with a pronounced jiggle

IMG_1418.jpeg This bodes well for lake effect snows later this month. Many times the lakes are frozen or mostly frozen at this time of the year so that is a plus for folks near the great lakes. I hope so, they’re not used to seeing bare ground this time of year , they’re nearing what normally is pe...

The globals continue to largely argue against any sustained cold pattern developing. Yea I still like week 3 temp mean to be in that 4-8 below normal range . Warmer(near normal) early in the period and colder later (19-20) with some teens for lows especially if we have a covering of snow nearby but...

Normally, Lake Erie has ice or the weather is so bad you cant get out. Winter time fishing and early spring can be some of the best walleye fishing of the year and since the weather this winter has been nice, you've been able to get out quite a bit. Wish I lived up there lol Got a think that would ...

Still over 36 hrs away, not much has changed for days with the axis of accumulations jiggling back and forth centering on 71 corridor. More jiggles to come from the not so good long ranges of the short range models . Don’t particularly like the trend of the low reaching west Tennessee/kentucky , wou...

Here you go Les

Early evening temps and last 24 Hrs of record’s continuing

Looks like CVG topped out at 58. Rain amounts

Briefly hit 57 here , back down to a current 56

Frogs in my small pond have emerged and are having a loud good time

Good Morning and great post Bgoney. This kind of system really will be a now cast imo. Sure models can try and narrow the area where snow falls but again you have a storm that is still developing and getting stronger as it heads northeast. I like the call of 1-3 somewhere nearby and so far that is ...

We’ve had a handful of these southern lows moving into a marginal airmass this season but those were pretty straightforward in that they weren’t bringing their own cold air with them. This one atm , does bring its own cold pool with it as long as precipitation is heavy , so the track actually matter...

Slight trend today in both GEFs/EPS compared to each of there OPs . There ensembles are slightly more south with the track of the low. With such a small axis of some accumulations any shift is crucial

Our vort for Monday was at least partially sample for the 12z suite , but 0z should be fully sampled