Still going with 1-2.5" for the Thursday/Friday/Saturday event centered on I-71 coridor. Not much rain Thursday when the front moves through with scattered showers, but when the low develops riding along the stalled boundary Friday night into Saturday the bulk of qpf will fall. Either side of t...

Nothing says December 2021 like a moderate risk in MN,IA,WI.

EPS 850 temp anomalies , showing Tim's reference to the SW ridge

Usually when you have the QBO in an easterly phase blocking is usually stronger. We saw this in the early fall season but in recent weeks that has gone away. Hopefully if this returns to a more normal pattern in regards to the QBO then plenty of blocking should happen over the next 6 weeks or so. Y...

12Z GEFS is an improvement if you look at the North American View on Tropical Tidbits and use 500 MB anomalies. If you look at the entire run, you can see the -EPO and -NAO develop. -NAO looks very nice but the -EPO is a little too far west still. Pretty much an Aleutian Ridge. But you can see the ...

12Z runs are much the same (pattern)unfortunately . Things may be starting to transition at the 500mb levels , but in its infancy. So we go through more of the same through Christmas, at least ,with wet periods mixed in. A huge chunk of the lower 48 is well above normal and will finish the month as ...

I'd like it to stay stronger in 7 to build momentum it needs to fight the easterlies near the dateline, I'm afraid if it stays on the weak side, the wave could collapse

Big step in the pattern change process is in progress with the consolidated PAC jet running into a MAGA wall of high pressure at the dateline and for all intensive purposes splitting . Instead of ramming the PNW from the west , the polar jet drops in for colder systems. gfs_uv250_npac_fh-12-240.gif

Wet Thursday/Friday with front coming through and stalling with a wave then moving up the boundary. Going with 1"-2.5" for now, with amounts depending on where the front stalls. Dont think flooding issues will be a concern atm.. Saturday starts out mild bit cools down all day and possible ...

That should help get some arctic air for the Northern plains around Christmas. Right now I'm just hope we can muster seasonal temperatures for the OV

IMO Mayfield will definitely be EF3 with EF4 damage mixed in

So far from LOU Tornado damage found so far (as of 11pm Dec 12): *Bowling Green Area: Confirmed tornado with EF-3 damage and wind speeds of 155 mph. Twelve fatalities. Still assessing damage. *Ohio County: EF-3 tornado (140 mph winds). Still assessing damage. *Hart County: EF-1 tornado (90 mph winds...

Middle of the country going to see more record highs/record high lows this week. The severe threat is even more north this week than last , MN, SD, IA , in December!!

After next weekend cool shot, GEFs/EPS showing a warm shot leading into Christmas image.thumb.png.1b9949101f6ca8f2ccc2530746872b1f.png image.thumb.png.0060f58fee8b04c37fe2a4c1c32ad60f.png Hey Bgoney and I was wondering if the models are being affected by some tropical moisture down in the island so...

After next weekend cool shot, GEFs/EPS showing a warm shot leading into Christmas

Easterlies are still giving pushback to the MJO and to also throw another wrench into the equation , a developing cyclone in the tropics, possibly another reason for turtling along. Screenshot_20211212-084248_Chrome.jpg Arrows denote wind direction in Kelven wave zone Screenshot_20211212-084713_Chro...

MJO continues trudging through 6 and flirting with 7 and the 500mb pattern along with it is slowly showing signs of changing the long standing PAC pattern. In the extended we can see the models slowly building higher heights into Western Alaska and slowly eastward. We need them moving into the GOA a...

ington OH
@NWSILN
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The dewpoint at Columbus (KCMH) reached 61F earlier. At 5 AM. In mid-December. This is only the 6th time in the past 60+ years the dewpoint has reached >=61F in December at the site. It most recently happened in 2015.

Bowling Green Area: Confirmed Tornado with EF-3 damage and wind speeds of 150 mph. Still assessing damage.

Its impossible at this early stage to say this. It will be days at least , to determine if it was one contiinuous or multiple tornadoes. Same supercell maybe but IMO unlikely to be one continuous tornado. Im guessing here , but so are these reports that say otherwise

1.1" total here

65 here

Going to a sad day for many and even though the folks on here were ahead of the game I don't believe anybody could have seen this kind of death and destruction. I will bring one point that the media and yes folks in the weather business need to learn from this outbreak. I sent an email to my local ...

December to remember for all the wrong reasons