Quick, someone throw a life jacket( not the cheap ones) to the MJO, it's drowning in phase 7

Yea , the EU is ugly. We new the Arctic air would finally reach the northern plains and NW but not much further through Dec. and that is still the case . I really don't like that at the end it shows the pAc ridge retrograding which we said was an option, resulting in more delays,, hopefully that cha...

I am noticing that after a long string of positive SOI days it has begin to drop. 3 days is not a trend but it has fallen quickly to -27. Not sure if any impact that will have on the MJO wave,. It has gained some amperage in Phase 7 as of 12/20 per the Aussies. Let's see how she moves over the next...

Nice post guys , all we can do now is wait for things to evolve, we sure do a lot of that in winter ,lol. Still give MJO a 50/50 chance of entering 8. Don't think it's a coincidence that the stubborn PAC ridge has loved taking a warm bath in the anomalis waters in the same region, and the positive t...

dont buy into the hype of any significant changes at day 10 or 2weeks out. remember the MJo was suppose to favor us and go into a good phase 4 weeks back and never happened . im taking it 1 week at a time and this coming week is a snooze fest . i been saying last week of month though, but my half i...

Severe blocking does beat the ridge down completely if correct. Would like to see those features a bit more east (Aleutian ridge, would like it more into AK) But anyway, mixing risks like snow to rain or rain to snow. Ice too are all possible in January with this pattern. Force those features to th...

Euro has a mild and wet Christmas to New Year's period. Will the MJO make it to 8 or keep it in 7 ? Too much -PNA. I give it a 50/50 chance atm. looking at SSTs , with those cold anomalies at and near the dateline , you can't help but wonder once the MJO goes through 7 and reaches the pearly gates ...

Cvg sitting at number 2 for the warmest Dec mean with 13 days left to get to number 1

No changes from EPS overnight concerning the next 10 days . Western ridge/trough continues to ruel the entire lower 48. For snow lovers , plenty of pain to go before potential gain. ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-1639872000-1639872000-1640736000-40.gif.a6d28c00471a9b96409fa1c07bb37f94.gif PRISM_...

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:56 pm Merry Torchmas from the 12Z Euro. Highs in the mid 60s Christmas Day at CVG. Ugh... The record is 66 from 1893. Yikes... Christmas Eve record is safe, 70 from 1964.

With DPs near 60 to the river and off the charts shear in the days just after the heat miser leaves our presents under the tree

3 day event total so far 1.25"

Yea that was a rough 0z suite for the next 10 days. But gradual improvements after that. Best thing I see this morning is a continued modeling of 850 wind anomalies and the relaxing of easterlies (blues)near the dateline in the coming week(s), should result in the MJO advancing through 7 and sniffin...

Per John Gumm: According to a storm survey in from the NWS in Memphis, TN, it appears as though the “Quad State Supercell” produced *two* separate EF4 tornadoes. They found an 11 mile break in the damage from the time one lifted in TN until the one that hit Mayfield, KY formed. That means the recor...

Overall with the 12z suite there's really not much change in the 6-10 day range from yesterdays runs. After this coming weeks slightly above temps, a cold front for Christmas which brings us , hopefully, to near.normal for a few days, maybe some mood flakes possible if everything works out . It such...

Seeing that sunshine here on the eastside

Didn't mention the MJO for a.couple days , I wanted to see some consistency, and I like what I see. Using the 850 wind anomalies, we see the easterlies (blues) shutting down closer to the dateline(180) early next week and then beyond the dateline going forward.!!!!!! Westerlies(yellowred) may not lo...

Models are all over the place at 500mb over the next 10-14 days , none of it especially good for the OV as has been eluded too . EU at Day ten has an awesome over the top block .....for the GOA and just off the west coast. Mods are having quite the conundrum of with the NPac block and the ensuing du...

Lowest negative PDO Oct/Nov readings since 1955 which also makes it #2 all time for these months. Coming in at -2.55 and -2.52 respectively. With the Mega trough for most of the rest of December, the Dec readings should at least be in the same neighborhood. Perhaps another clue to the failed, so far...

No changes for our rain event, a few showers later today with frontal passage. Might see some early morning sunshine tomorrow especially north of river before front moves back north midday with a few showers . Bulk of rain Still comes overnight Friday into noonish Saturday as the low moves along the...

Typhoon Rai has sucked the life out the MJO progression, might take even longer to advance in 7 with convection having to refire and gain momentum again to Rai east. I can see it sniffing 8 eventually but I think 1 has an extremely low chance atm I mentioned the other day that this would be a possi...

Typhoon Rai has sucked the life out the MJO progression, might take even longer to advance in 7 with convection having to refire and gain momentum again to Rai east. I can see it sniffing 8 eventually but I think 1 has an extremely low chance atm

Low temperature Wednesday morning at Fairbanks Airport -40F/C, same as the low temp Tuesday. This the first December since 2012 with back-to back days of -40F/C or lower (nine straight days that December). The longest -40 streak is 18 days in Jan 1971.

Minnesota has never registered a December Tornado. Could today change that? Let's hope not. The winds are going to be an issue for a lot of folks even without t-storms. Remarkable to see a moderate risk issued for Iowa and SE MN in December! Practically unheard of. Yea, I saw satellite pics where t...

Next week looks seasonal atm . Should be dry early week , closer to Christmas is tough to say. The cut off Lows traversing on the west coast is going to be a challenge to figure out when and where energy waves get kicked out for mid to late week.