For those not familiar, I recommend taking a look at the WoFS model here: https://cbwofs.nssl.noaa.gov/forecast?model=WOFSRun20240227-143238d1&rd=20240227&rt=202402272000&product=comp_dz__member&sector=wofs It is a short-range, high resolution forecast model that only runs for severe...

18z HRRR animation for tonight.

Current dew points:

Current satellite image. Definitely a lot of clouds. Makes me kind of skeptical if we can get the necessary instability in place for anything major.

And FWIW, here is the experimental CSU outlook for today.

Figured I'd start a dedicated topic since there's now an enhanced risk for the lower Ohio River Valley. SPC outlook https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif Hatched 10% tornado risk now along the Ohio River IN/KY border: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_...

WAVE3 in Louisville being gutsy on trying to pinpoint where the dry shaft will be this early: https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/426520756_797337439103618_2140916743542329969_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=3635dc&_nc_ohc=Nl5hM7SU3fkAX9DFnok&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.x...

I've updated the logo for you guys:
FWIW, 12z HRRR came in stronger for central and southern KY:

MattD41 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:31 am Any update gor Louisville/Lexington?

Louisville looks to be out of the game. Lexington still has potential though

00z HRRR…

LOL... 18z HRRR... I approve

Chance of zero to 12 in of snow for my area? ...

HRRR showing a top 10 snowfall event for Memphis, TN area...

Me looking at the winter storm watches down south...

Usually I’ve found that if I’m in the bullseye for snow at this stage in the game, it usually doesn’t turn out that way. (Just me trying to come up with some positive reverse psychology)

I'll just say I'm glad I put a "?" in the title of this thread lol

Euro of past runs not too different in QPF placement but trending drier.

GFS and Euro have been fairly consistent recently on showing a snowstorm potential for us southern Ohio Valley folks on Monday, Jan 15. Definitely do not see warm air being a concern with this system. Question is, will this system turn out weaker than what is showing or will dry artic air keep moist...