The system is just coming into view on 84 of the 18z NAM. The NAM is showing the low tracking through middle TN. That’s further North than both the GFS and Euro, which have it in Northern AL.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:49 pm I'm busy working so if anyone could post the QPF that the 12Z Euro showed for Thurs / Fri that would be wonderful. Thanks!

Here’s both - snowfall and QPF

Unbelievable, the football game in buffalo got postponed. Sign of the times I would hardly call that a sign of the times. There’s a full travel ban for Saturday night and Erie County is under a state of emergency. Holding a football game would be irresponsible, and allocating resources where they a...

It’s sleeting like crazy right now in Green Twp/Dent. More than half of what is falling right now is sleet!

mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:01 pm Can we not start a thread a week before the next system. Maybe wait until the day before !! I am completely joking!

Seems logical to me!

Wednesday morning definitely looks cold. I'm not sure Florida can handle temps in the 20s...

The weaker and suppressed look kills the snowfall. It seems each passing storm is hell bent on making sure we don't get any snow.

12z GFS seems to stick with the ~1" idea.

I think we are continuing to see the same thing we saw last week. The models can only handle the potent storm into the weekend, before they can decide what will happen next week.

6z GFS still gives us a nice hit, even with the two part system. It’s not 10”, but it’s also not zilch.

Anybody got a QPF map from the 12Z NAM? The track looks similar to La Bomba and the model deepens the low to 968 MB over Lake Huron. EDIT: Never mind. I was able to locate something. Looks like the 1" plus totals are along the track of the low. We get 0.75" over Cincy and our Western coun...

Weather Station at my house hit 29.04” today, so that’s 983mb. I saw a lot of posts where people’s wall barometers have bottomed out.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:44 pm 12Z Euro is looking a lot more GFS like for MLK. I like what I am seeing there.

We are almost to the scary point. The Icon is looking similar as well.

I agree with you guys. I don’t think any of the models are compensating for the flood of cold air that we know is coming. As that pushes in, I suspect that subsequent systems will start to track further South. One should be about perfect to give us a good chance at a decent snowfall.

I don’t think the models are handling the pattern change well at all. They are all over the place, run to run.

Hopefully some sampling and then after this first one moves through, it will be a little bit calmer on the huge “wobbles”.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:56 pm You should probably move that post to the La Bomba thread.

Are you saying Trevor needs to be moderated...

I'm glad that I didn't come out with a snowfall forecast yet. After seeing the 12Z suite, I was going to come out and say 2-4" (for CVG Land) and 4"+ for SE Crew. 18Z GFS and GEFS said "hold on Wilbur!" :lol: 0Z tonight should be telling. What did I miss? Good or bad? More model...

I was doing some reading the other day. I read up on the Blizzard of 1978. I'm not saying we are going to see that, but the really low pressure and a very warm December all incline me to think that is a realistic scenario again. Everyone I have talked to that remembers it, says that winter was eeril...

#LockItIn

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 4:24 pm 18z NAM is essentially a complete miss...

It is the NAM after all. Next one will show storms and then a thumping of snow…

12z GFS is weird on this run, tracks the Low from TX panhandle, to OKC, to Columbus, MO then St Louis, then it seems to retrograde South to Evansville/Terre Haute, then it moves to Indy and then Ft Wayne and then into the thumb of Michigan, for us to still get a whopping 0.3"

Uhh...

Over reaction from what happened on Sunday. Both Mets and schools.

EDIT: I do think the HRRR seemed to do the best again when the event got closer. It was more granular in the precip and that’s how it went.

When the low finally gets here, even the HRRR tracks it West of us! About Ripley County by this frame.

18z HRRR Snow:
18z Forecast GIF Run 00-18hrs:

17z HRRR is actually trying to diminish the dry slot. This might be interesting.