Saturday morning temps-

Looks like .21” of ice, probably 1-3” of sleet over 12 hours, then it snows until 4a Friday, with 10-12” - wowzers!

.21 of ice, then heavy sleet, about 4a-4p Thursday.

GFS trying to bring the ice earlier.

ILN has upgraded furthest North portions to a Warning.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning

Pepper wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:23 am Question for you all what is looking like down around Murray KY?

Ice, Ice, Baby…

The map shows 1+” of ice.

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:19 am Curious what the 12z Euro has to say...

We’ll find out when it runs again around 1:30pm.

The map shows 18” at CVG, but some of that is sleet, so subtracting it out, it gives us 10. Hmmm Kuchera on COD is tagging it as 13" (including sleet). That’s why I did the math. Pivotal is slamming it as all snow at 18”. The simulated ptype, shows it as sleet, so I did it myself. Best guess w...

The map shows 18” at CVG, but some of that is sleet, so subtracting it out, it gives us 10.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:02 am Does TWC still name their stupid storms? Gonna call this one Joe Brrrr.

Yes. The next one is named Little House on the Prairie

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:57 am She's coming south... bad ice storm for CVG... and esp SE Counties.

Looks like about a 30 mile shift South.

Only a few hours of freezing rain, then sleet.

GFS says transition to ice 3z-6z Thurs.

Ice accumulation 0z Fri-

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:36 am You are correct guys. We'll see in the next few frames how that'll translate for us. Probably going to be an icier run.

15z Thurs has ice into HamCo. Low track looks further South.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:06 am 12z NAM is running. At hour 33 now.

It looks out to lunch already…540 line halfway into Michigan, pushing ice line into Canada with a 988 low to the North… I’m not buying it.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:26 am Hopefully the NAM is the NW outlier now. We'll see shortly.

It just looks like usual NAM noise 48 hrs out. The Low track is unlike anything we have seen this winter. That pains me to begin with.

Euro-GFS ice spread is 0.59-0.69 - that seems realistic and consistent.

18z Euro same Timeframe - Ice

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 5:09 pm 18Z GFS continuing the north trend a bit more from 12Z. Nasty icing N Cincy burbs to I-70. Mainly snow north of there. CVG / Downtown and NKY do not changeover to rain until Thurs late afternoon.

You mean changeover to ice.

Euro Ice:

I like how all the OV weenies started posting hour 384 of the 6z GFS to Facebook… whipping everyone into a frenzy over our 30” of snow

Still 38° here- sleet rain mix. The cold is definitely a slow mover…

38° here and we are still getting snow flurries…

The clipper seems to becoming a non-event, like most of this winter so far.

It just started here. It’s graupel. Definitely not flakes.