Sitting at 50 just east of Dry Ridge. Boy, did that sunshine do a number on the snow cover today. Even the pond that was walkable yesterday afternoon is thawing in the middle.

Merry Christmas, everyone. We did it. A white Christmas. Even in a La Nina year.

Well, it appears that my decision to stop in Knoxville last night might not have been wise. Both 75 and 25 are nightmares. Black ice everywhere, accidents and pile ups, it is the most nerve-wracking driving I have done in a while. Might have been better off to leave it snow covered.

Woke up in Knoxville to... no snow! Not sure how that went down, as the radar returns were showing a band of heavy snow set to come through after midnight. On to NKY. Glad to see everyone got a good covering up there overnight, but interesting to see that nobody got those higher totals we saw on som...

Stopped in Knoxville, even though I really wanted to finished the drive to Independence tonight. Not worth getting stuck on top of the mountain. That being said, the plows are sitting on the roadside down here ready to do their thing. Think I will stay up and wait for the changeover (looks to be abo...

I've been driving north all day, so I haven't been able to post or check in much. I'm on 75 in Chattanooga,and I'm trying to figure out if I can get through the mountains and across the Kentucky line before the change over happens. Any updated thoughts on when the freezing line might cross down her...

I've been driving north all day, so I haven't been able to post or check in much. I'm on 75 in Chattanooga,and I'm trying to figure out if I can get through the mountains and across the Kentucky line before the change over happens. Any updated thoughts on when the freezing line might cross down here?

I actually think someone is going to see some pretty strong fetch all the way down here from the lakes, depending upon how the wind direction sets up. Wouldn't surprise me to see someone stay in those backside snows longer than expected if everything lines up for them. Maybe a narrow stretch of a co...

GFS says "dry slot" to Cincinnati, but still 1-3 depending on ratios. If we could just get another 50 miles east...

00z GFS is cutting the low through Illinois, and we're back into the 50s by New Year's. Still have a shot at seeing an inch or two on the ground, but the fat lady has sung. That numerically slight verification advantage the Euro has over the GFS sure does feel pronounced in the winter.

Can we just take a minute to address how bad modeling still is past 7 days? Three days ago we were talking a foot of snow in ATL. Some of us have been in the same forums for over 15 years. Seems like long-term verification should have improved more over that period of time.

I know these snow maps keep showing a nice snow, but backside snow is almost always overestimated by models. This run is just another step to the Euro's consistency.

I really like Bernie's explanation, but he doesn't give much reasoning for thinking the Euro is wrong. I can think of only one time where the Euro collapsed east within 5 days and, to be fair, that happened about 2 days out, but I'm seeing no reason to believe that the Euro is about to bend. I think...

I don't think the GFS is done shipping this thing west. Yesterday I thought we were over 50% odds of having some snowcover, now I'm not so sure we see anything more than mood flakes. The Euro isn't wanting to dig as deep before the low winds up and if that trend continues we'll struggle to see much ...

00z GFS has eliminated our low, and transfers the energy to the east coast low, similar to what we were seeing a couple of days ago. All snow, and a longer period of snow, but not the same intensity as there is no apps runner to speak of like we saw at 18z. A nice 4-6". This solution and the 12...

I'm on the record saying I think it cuts, but the strength of this low and the associated temps still allow that to be a possible white Christmas for us. When there is a great divide on low track between the Euro and GFS six days out, I'll almost always ride with Dr. No. That being said... Holy smok...

Saw Ryan Maue post the 12z GFS snow map and had to go look at it myself. Yikes. Honestly, I love where we are sitting 8 days out, even though we're currently sitting in a donut on that map. Euro showing the weak low at 174 that the GFS abandoned yesterday and shows hints of today, but MUCH slower wi...

Moved to FL a couple of years ago, came back to AV to talk about Christmas up home and had to re-register. It's like I never existed. :lol: Being that I'll be home for Christmas (there's a song about that, I think), I have a vested interest in it not being 70 degrees again. So many possibilities as ...