What a fascinating storm to open the season with. I really like the set up with the trough becoming neg tilt over Ohio. I think temps are going to be marginal for slushy accumulations but the set up is right for rapid intensification east of Ohio. -Nao/-Epo blocking with a nice 50/50 low in place is...

Looks like another Mjo wave getting ready to amplify in phase 2 coinciding with what the models are picking up around the 21st. IMG_1048.gif November phase 2 temp anomalies IMG_1049.gif November phase 3 temp anomalies IMG_1050.gif It might be short lived but it’s nice to see some tropical convective...

Current 7 day ssta anomaly map shows cooling in the pdo region. Let’s hope this continues IMG_1046.png I also noticed the polar vortex is nice and strong at 10mb IMG_1047.png I’m also liking how operational and ensembles are picking up on a potential cold shot/first lake effect snows the week of the...

Wonderful post Phr0z3n! My only thoughts to counteract a favorable MJO phase is the extremely -PDO and the -IOD. Despite the La Nina either staying cold neutral / weak... wouldn't those two factors still allow the majority of the MJO forcing to be in Phases 4-6 which we know are the kiss of death i...

I’m thinking this La Niña is never going to make it. There is another MJO wave to monitor IMG_1022.gif Looks a lot stronger also than the one we just encountered. This makes sense as the IOD just went negative. IMG_1024.png You can also see in the upper ocean heat content anomalies that this current...

The PDO seems to be weakening a little bit this week. IMG_0318.jpeg I’m hoping beyond hope that continues. Throughout the years I’ve always liked our chances with a -EPO scenario more than with a -NAO. IMO our winters have done better especially downwind of the lakes with that scenario. We can even ...

I like seeing this. 18z gfs always has credibility even more so than any other run a lot of times. Usually in this setup the transfer happens north of what is forecasted too. So this is looking really good imo. A lot of times the transfer happens near the Ohio West Virginia border which usually mix...

18Z GFS came back north with the primary into WVA. Heaviest snows SE of our local area as you would expect. CVG SUN 00Z 07-JAN 0.6 -3.0 1010 98 95 0.15 546 538 SUN 06Z 07-JAN -0.1 -3.1 1010 97 93 0.06 544 536 SUN 12Z 07-JAN -1.7 -4.7 1013 94 95 0.01 543 532 HAO SUN 00Z 07-JAN 0.2 -3.1 1011 98 95 0....

I see the difference now with the 500mb vorticity in regards to sat-sun night. For us to cash in the upper level trough has to turn negative just east of the Mississippi. Gfs operational depicts this well. Euro operational is just a tad farther east when it goes negative. We have plenty of time to w...

Looks like models are trying to fire a Miller C snow event for Sat-Sun night. I definitely like the consistency in the model runs this far out. When comparing the 0z euro and 0z gfs there are a lot of the ingredients there. 50/50 low appears to be in place with a decent Newfoundland block. IMO maybe...

To add to the ongoing discussion... check out what the GEFS extended is showing with regards to forcing. If correct, we should see the MJO take a tour thru Phases 7, 8, 1, and 2 for the later portion of December. In January those phases would absolutely work! gfs-ens_chi200Mean_global_29.png.7ebae5...

CFS extends the stagnant pattern in the equatorial pacific well into the second half of NOV IMG_0742.png Very good posts on the MJo. Looks like the MJo is stuck in a phase 1 , phase 8 look IMG_0305.gif This matches up nicely with what we should expect phase 1 and phase 8 to look respectively IMG_03...

So here’s the 30 day euro weekly for October D5168C50-AD39-4B25-97A2-C5DAE92B555E.png I would think that October will feel overall very seasonal. I looked at ecmwf seasonal,canspis and cv2. They all have a general idea of December being somewhat normal to mild and then go nuts with blocking in Jan a...

Hey Phr0z3n! Always glad to see your posts. :) What are your thoughts on the tropical forcing for El Nino? It is expected to shift towards the West as time goes on which is good. Preferably, we'd like to see it near or West of the Date Line in the West Pac. If it is East Based, that is usually neve...

Hey guys how is everyone doing? Hopefully everyone has had an awesome summer. I wanted to mention some preliminary things that I’m seeing that I wanted to share. Upper ocean heat content anomalies are looking real good to hopefully keep El Niño moderate IMG_0296.png I always like this indice because...

The only thing I can think of is the low is to far from the coast for a clean transfer.

18z gfs this should be where the transfer happens

IMO this always had a miller a look to it. There’s really nothing in the way to hinder an inter-coastal transfer.

Anyone seeing this that some European ensemble members and nam/rgem seeing a secondary low pop inner coastal. This would change the game with an energy transfer.

I also wanted to point out how far south the daughter vortice gets over Canada. 487B6378-DD87-4CE0-A1AB-EC8885E4A098.png Models have been showing this for sometime now and if this were to happen teen lows would not be out of question with massive lake effect snows possible. That’s if the propagating...

Some really interesting features are taking place or are getting ready to take place. We’re already seeing a reversal of the arctic zonal winds between .4 and 2 hPa. This will in turn split the polar vortex in the latter half of this month and has been modeled well at 10mb in the arctic stratosphere...

Hrrr going insane with snow totals for my house. Could be in the deformation band or close to it

Marc Weinberg from WDRB in Louisville is tweeting that the GFS is showing massive southerly flow 925 mb to 600 mb and that means the GFS is going to be wrong on precipitation type over a chunk of its snow area. Why? Because the southerly flow will warm mid level temps notably more than the model sa...

Good evening everyone. Classic Miller A snowstorm scenario setting up. In my opinion usually transfers to the primary are earlier than forecasted. This will be a fun one to watch. This one is setting up more to the west. So inner coastal primary track is probably favored at the moment.

I am watching and waiting but... Is the Nina already weakening??? If it is, this bodes well for winter esp that it is still East based. IsTheNinaWeakeningAlready.jpg Good Morning Les and you know my thoughts on the La Nina, I know some models/folks kept calling on a moderate La Nina but the oceans ...