Absolute Vorticity

A cool morning in the U20s to L30sacross the area. A few snow showers are still possible this afternoon and evening. No issues are expected. A seasonal week temp wise in thew 40s and 50s for highs, with the 20s and 30s for lows. Not much precip until we get towards Friday and even that system is lo...

A cool morning in the U20s to L30sacross the area. A few snow showers are still possible this afternoon and evening. No issues are expected. A seasonal week temp wise in thew 40s and 50s for highs, with the 20s and 30s for lows. Not much precip until we get towards Friday and even that system is lo...

Heavy rain may be our biggest threat tonight. Training setting up to the west of town. Severe threat in Cincy is low. Better chance south of the river.

As expected, the slight risk has been expanded to cover the tri-state.

I believe SPC will likely upgrade our area to a SLGT in the next outlook.

Sounding for this evening showing PDS tornado so if anything pops this evening we could have some serious trouble. Will depend on quality of atmosphere after potential mid afternoon storms.

HRRR continues to show quite a line moving through early-mid afternoon. Watches out west currently for this activity. Needs to be watched.

The HRRR looks scary for areas north of Cincinnati this evening. Multiple supercells.

SPC's Day two outlook has the marginal risk now across our NW counties. I personally feel that severe wx won't be an issue for us as I've been saying due to poor timing of the cold front. We'll see what the SPC does with their next update for Thurs down the road. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/o...

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 9:36 am Back to our current weather and the 12Z NAM came in with the classic I-71 corridor screw zone. Mod to hvy rain well NW and SE of our local area. 0.25 to 0.50" falls within the lighter zone of precip. I am discounting this solution personally at this time.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 353 AM EST THU MAR 6 2008 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>095-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>063-070>072-077-078-061700- /O.NEW.KILN.WS.A.0005.080307T1200Z-080309T0000Z/ WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEA...

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:19 am I still think our wiggle room with the scenarios mentioned leave the region in the .75”-1.50” range as the general rule atm .

I'll agree with that.

Here are totals from the first system. The heavier amounts I was expecting panned out very well. And like others have said, we will add to the bucket tomorrow and Saturday which will put us in much better shape.

Nice improvement in the rain department from the 00z GFS to the 06z.

00z had <0.50" for CVG and 06z has >1.00".

Butler Co getting slammed again. They will have some of the heaviest totals of the day.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 2:15 pm As of 2pm, CVG is up to 0.09" Weeeee!

Yeah like I mentioned earlier, some areas will get screwed today. CVG is one of those lucky winners!

Very late spring-like setup today with thunderstorms popping/bubbling up all around the tri-state area.

Facebook is down right now (login issues) for anyone wondering.

12z Canadian agrees with the 00z Euro...

As for the Fri-Sat system, here is the 12z GFS and the 00z Euro. Major differences there. The Euro is a spread-the-wealth type event with widespread heavy rains. The GFS advertises a Cincy/Dayton/Columbus screw-job.

Butler Co has been getting nailed. Some areas likely close to an inch already. Some hail contamination is likely on the radar estimates.

I like our prospects better than others for today. I think some areas will see over an inch, with most getting 0.50" on average. If you are unlucky and get missed by multiple rounds, then you short. You know the drill...same goes for snowfall.

Seeing the number of tornado’s and the damage today , I think a small enhanced area was a good call from SPC. Only the placement should have been a bit further north Came to say the exact same thing. It was a good forecast. DPs made into the 56-59 range , it’s another example of how me/we? , need t...

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:23 pm Seeing the number of tornado’s and the damage today , I think a small enhanced area was a good call from SPC. Only the placement should have been a bit further north

Came to say the exact same thing. It was a good forecast.

Our next threat for strong storms to watch may be late Monday. The surface low tracks well to the north (like way up in Canada lol) so I think we'd probably be looking at a marginal risk type deal. Something to watch. The GFS does try to pop a secondary surface low further south and if that were to ...

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