The ceiling has been lowered, though IMO.

HRRR wants to take us from no CAPE to 1500 in a couple hours. Man that'd be something! As Les said remain vigilant. As I posted on FB the all clear cannot be given until the front clears.

--

Absolutely not in the clear at all. But yes I am wondering if our sig tornado threat may not materialize.

We'll have to give it a few more hours to see if the action to our West / SW will be the saving grace. I know a few of you have said that on here and you maybe right. I'm not letting my guard down yet and this event should still be treated with the utmost respect until we are sure. Until the front ...

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 12:24 pm--

Whoops disregard. I had dewpoints pulled up not temps LOL

--

My latest thoughts...

-

06z NAM and HRRR continue to look very nasty. Nearly 2k of CAPE. Yikes.

Cincinnati tri-state bullseye on the 00z HRRR. A swarm of supercells across the area tomorrow afternoon/evening...

Flash flooding risk increasing for tonight.

HRRR continuing to show supercells (one large one in particular) in the Cincinnati area. ILN noted this as well. STP is increasing as well. May see an enhanced upgrade today for the area.

Good morning all and a busy weather week for us is ahead. Periods of rain and storms today and tomorrow followed by light rain and much cooler temps for Wed and Thurs. Then we bounce back up for Fri and the upcoming weekend. We have some breathing and relaxation room ahead but we have a few busy da...

06z HRRR has the front getting further north today thus increasing our severe threat. SPC agrees and nudged the risk further north to cover the entire tri-state.

00z NAM continues the very aggressive look. Most models put the tri-state near the triple point. I mentioned this in my post on FB but if these trends continue I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the area eventually upgraded to a MDT risk. Attached is the 00z NAM UH tracks. Signal is growing for ...

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 7:00 pm When the region had numerous severe weather a couple weeks ago we had shear in the 60-70 range. Tuesday some models have shear in the 80-90 range

Yeah if we can throw 1000j/kg+ of CAPE on top of that things will get rough.

Monday update...

High-end enhanced or maybe even a MDT may be required IMO. Of course will continue to watch things.

NAM continues to go wild for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Attached the modeled CAPE and STP.

https://www.facebook.com/cwc513/

Just posted multiple updates on my page...too many to C/P here. Check it out if you'd like.

HRRR also showing a few wicked supercells across the southern half of the tri-state area tomorrow evening.

High res NAM only goes out to 18z on Tue and the STP is already climbing big time.

Tuesday has the potential to be a big severe weather day in the tri-state. All modes possible but the tornado potential is elevated for sure.

I’m still rolling with 2-4”+ area-wide. More of the guidance is falling in line with that forecast which increases my confidence.