Agreed that we are still well within range for changes and model disagreement to continue. The guidance yesterday and last night was a pretty big shift, but as I explained in my post the models struggle with huge airmass changes like this. I am lowering my PoPs a bit in my extended outlook though. ...

Agreed that we are still well within range for changes and model disagreement to continue. The guidance yesterday and last night was a pretty big shift, but as I explained in my post the models struggle with huge airmass changes like this. I am lowering my PoPs a bit in my extended outlook though. I...

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:46 am Dude... wrong thread!

LOL it’s so busy I’m getting mixed up!!

Genuinely surprised that hasn’t already happened to me

High res models continue to go nuts with wind late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Could we see a 60mph gust in the tri-state? It’s possible…

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:13 am For what it's worth. And I'm not sure it's worth anything, but the UKMET is all in for this system. By far the strongest for AV land.

Lock it in!

Keeping an eye on a possible storm late next week as the cold eases, but I’m also watching to see if we can get a clipper sometime midweek in during our coldest period.

Good morning folks... the main take away in our monthly January thread will be to see how much snow we can get on the ground. Then, that will tell us how cold we can get next week when the arctic hammer drops. We may get a clipper system at some point as well with another shot of arctic air. The co...

Good morning folks... the main take away in our monthly January thread will be to see how much snow we can get on the ground. Then, that will tell us how cold we can get next week when the arctic hammer drops. We may get a clipper system at some point as well with another shot of arctic air. The co...

Further south than 00z and 06z. Enough for a couple inches locally but the heaviest is down in CB Country,

Definitely slower through 99.

Great forecast Trev. I do believe the winds could be worse than yesterday. My guess is you may lower the overnight lows next week if and of course if we get a decent snow Sunday/Monday. Busy is the key word over the next 1-2 weeks and hopefully in February as well. Of course! If confidence increase...

Great forecast Trev. I do believe the winds could be worse than yesterday. My guess is you may lower the overnight lows next week if and of course if we get a decent snow Sunday/Monday. Busy is the key word over the next 1-2 weeks and hopefully in February as well. The only comment I have is that i...

Planning Forecast Update [Wed 1/10/24 9:30am] Well it doesn't get much busier than this on a forecast graphic! Let's break it down. -Thursday is the PICK DAY with only a few clouds and high temperatures a few degrees above normal. ENJOY. IT. -Storm #2 moves in on Friday with periods of heavy rain li...

Not only that, Tim, but a further west track increases our chance to mix down some wicked winds. The NAM went crazy with gusts...

In my forecast update today on my page (I will post here soon) I mentioned gusts exceeding 50mph possible. HWW may be needed.

Anybody got a QPF map from the 12Z NAM? The track looks similar to La Bomba and the model deepens the low to 968 MB over Lake Huron. EDIT: Never mind. I was able to locate something. Looks like the 1" plus totals are along the track of the low. We get 0.75" over Cincy and our Western coun...

I think we've got the trifecta. Trev, Tim, and myself seem to be on the same page! :lol: Yes sir! I will probably have a first call out tomorrow. Given that we are not dealing with p-type issues which is usually the case, this is somewhat of an easier forecast. We will get snow and we will get accu...

Rundown that I posted on my page...

Tim / Trev... I don't know what the Euro is doing. It has a similar track and everything like most models but it has very little wrap around precip also. Only thing I can think of would be moisture transport from the Gulf getting disrupted if there is convection going on down over the Dixie States....

Good Morning guys and feel like I need to squeeze myself like a sponge after yesterday. Trev, like the early map and only change is maybe a more southwest to northeast tilt but again we are over 4 days away. Les like you mentioned on temps will depend on how much snow is on the ground. Still believ...

Here are the latest runs of the big three models. Canadian is in its own camp with the heavier rains overtop the tri-state.

With a low this strong tracking west of our area, it doesn't make sense to me to cut back on the QPF that we get ahead of the front. I see no reason to change a thing other then the low track which I already mentioned this morning. Yeah looks like we have the same rainfall forecast, though I'm goin...

Canadian is the opposite with much more.

The only change I am making to my forecast for this storm, is to go the way of the Euro. The GFS has caved and now tracks the low to our West over Indiana. Still, heavy rains are returning on Fri and the PM commute will be impacted with strong winds and rain. Then we change to snow on the backside ...

Good morning Trev! Your map looks good my man! Once the models lock in on the track for the 12-13th system (again we went it to cut as far west as possible), then we should be able to get a better handle on how much overrunning moisture we can get with the wave / arctic frontal passage. Should be i...