Cleveland upgraded. ILN will at any moment I'd imagine.

This should help illustrate what I'm talking about. Better chance for a further north track when the cold eases.

The next system of interest will be around Thurs and Fri of next week Jan 18-19th. We've got a northern clipper system dropping in as well as another southern wave. Do we see any interaction between the two? Does the arctic air shunt everything south of us again? Stay tuned... I actually like our c...

Could have used this dynamical cooling last week

Same here in Amberley Village attm.

The latest Euro weeklies want to keep us below normal through March 1st. Granted we won't be in the ice box the whole time, below normal is below normal. Would fit my winter outlook!

Comparison between the 00z and 06z GFS.

Outside on my balcony about a half hour ago!

6Z GEFS I also think was a nice improvement considering how far south the Ensemble Guidance has been, I am gaining confidence in the two part solution. Late Sun night into MLK maybe a touch of snow, but don't be surprised if we are dry all the same. The main piece still looks to be late Mon night a...

Louisville Office upgraded to HWW. I'm sure ILN will too at some point today.

Euro tries to phase Mon night but just doesn’t do it.

Waiting on the Euro but I think we all know what that will show! I’ve been hammering home the uncertainty but also the trend south on my page. It’s not dead in the water just yet but I do think it’s safe that our chances of 4”+ are rapidly decreasing.

If you’re wanting a snowfall you better root for Team Canada as that’s about all that remains.

The shift south in the other deterministic models is no surprise giving the ensembles have been south.

Add the GFS to the camp that caved to the Euro. Some light snow showers late Tue but that’s about it!

It will be interesting to see how the models handle wave two. Unless something changes wave one will be limited with an inch or less (or nothing). Wave 2 has the better chance to put down a couple to a few inches in the tri-state. The majority of the heaviest amounts will be to our south. Remember I...

Great news this afternoon and its some of the models are just out of whack. I am not the best model watcher but I watch energy out in the pacific and a few pieces from Sunday through all of next week are nice. Do we get one piece at a time or can we get two combining. Since I seldom ever base my fo...

The boys went with the wind advisory only Trev. ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky and central, south central and southwest ...

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:24 pm LOU and JKL have wind advisories issued for their respective CWA's.

Yes they do. I’d be shocked if ILN doesn’t go HWW. Even LOU may have to upgrade as well.

IND went HWW so I bet that is what ILN will do as well soon.

Looks like the system will occlude quicker and that would also cut down on totals Being away from the heaviest precip will also increase our winds. I went 45-55 (isolated 60) in my FB update. ILN is debating whether to go HWW or WA, but I suspect they may go WA and upgrade if needed. I would unders...

Agreed that we are still well within range for changes and model disagreement to continue. The guidance yesterday and last night was a pretty big shift, but as I explained in my post the models struggle with huge airmass changes like this. I am lowering my PoPs a bit in my extended outlook though. ...

Agreed that we are still well within range for changes and model disagreement to continue. The guidance yesterday and last night was a pretty big shift, but as I explained in my post the models struggle with huge airmass changes like this. I am lowering my PoPs a bit in my extended outlook though. I...

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:46 am Dude... wrong thread!

LOL it’s so busy I’m getting mixed up!!

Genuinely surprised that hasn’t already happened to me

High res models continue to go nuts with wind late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Could we see a 60mph gust in the tri-state? It’s possible…

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:13 am For what it's worth. And I'm not sure it's worth anything, but the UKMET is all in for this system. By far the strongest for AV land.

Lock it in!