One thing to watch is timing/strength. The Euro is similar to 12z but the “dry slot” got nudged a bit east reducing our totals. Main reason being that the southern wave is weaker and misses us. Still a solid advisory event locally but we do need to keep an eye on that. That’d be the difference betwe...

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GFS is similar, though lighter on totals. NAM only goes out to Friday morning but does look like it would be a similar run to the GFS.

We got NAM’d by the Canadian

Guidance today was in pretty good agreement on placement with some smaller differences in amounts. Unless we see some model shenanigans on 00z, I’ll have my first call map out tomorrow morning.

What ratios are we looking at for Thursday if the models continue to favor AV land? Probably 12:1 or so to start increasing to 15:1 or so. Agree Trev, 15 would be max Also agree.... as it stands right now if the current guidance is correct, I think a 1-3" or if the gods are smiling, a 2-4"...

What ratios are we looking at for Thursday if the models continue to favor AV land? Probably 12:1 or so to start increasing to 15:1 or so. Agree Trev, 15 would be max There will definitely be a ceiling on the ratios as the upper levels will be warming a bit. I use that term loosely as it will still...

allowat3 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:41 am What ratios are we looking at for Thursday if the models continue to favor AV land?

Probably 12:1 or so to start increasing to 15:1 or so.

12z runs looking decent. This won’t be a blockbuster snowfall but a couple to a few inches is possible.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:11 am Thanks Trev... that's a good 1-3" snowfall on the Ensembles then. As usual, we shall see!

Right we still have a couple days to fine-tune the forecast. This is probably not going to be the final outcome but as you said it certainly needs to be watched.

Here's the GFS Ens while we are at it...

Here ya go Les...

Here's a rundown of the latest runs for the Top 4...

The Euro would be the solution that is bothering you. Again it is entirely possible, but that solution only has one supporter right now and that is the Euro. The rest give us at least something.

Probably going to be a situation where the heaviest band is 3-5" and areas right around that band see 1-3".

Good morning all! 6 degrees at CVG, 7 in my backyard right now. 0Z GFS reduced QPF, about 0.12" for CVG for the Thurs / Fri system. The 0Z Euro had about 0.21" for us. Models so far favor an I-70 special. Still going to be a couple days before things solidify from a forecast standpoint. I...

Good morning all! 6 degrees at CVG, 7 in my backyard right now. 0Z GFS reduced QPF, about 0.12" for CVG for the Thurs / Fri system. The 0Z Euro had about 0.21" for us. Models so far favor an I-70 special. Still going to be a couple days before things solidify from a forecast standpoint. I...

Going by radar and now casting, Close to Inch amounts for a good portion of the tri-cities region, possibly isolated 1.5” if you get more than one heavier burst Agreed. I went 0.5-1.00" (with some areas seeing more) in my forecast update earlier this afternoon. Should look pretty wintry out th...

I continue to see decent snow showers this morning IMBY. Just went to the store and main roads are fine, but neighborhood roads and side streets do have icy patches. 21 degrees. 12Z RGEM was okay for tonight's snow shower activity with the arctic front, but the 12Z HRRR is really showing widespread...

That’s pretty much how it’s going. The models are alternating between which one brings the shield far enough north to give us a little snow. Those aren’t good odds, and that’s why I lowered PoPs in my forecast. Is it possible that things shift north? Sure. But it’s bad practice to base a forecast on...

Same with the Canadian.

00z NAM is an improvement….

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 5:28 pm Don’t be surprised to see at least a dusting late Saturday/early Sunday morning with the arctic front

Yeah I’ve been noticing that on the models over the last 36 hrs.

The next system of interest will be around Thurs and Fri of next week Jan 18-19th. We've got a northern clipper system dropping in as well as another southern wave. Do we see any interaction between the two? Does the arctic air shunt everything south of us again? Stay tuned... I actually like our c...

The next system of interest will be around Thurs and Fri of next week Jan 18-19th. We've got a northern clipper system dropping in as well as another southern wave. Do we see any interaction between the two? Does the arctic air shunt everything south of us again? Stay tuned... I actually like our c...