00z Euro is in and essentially doubles our QPF versus the 12z run. The 18z run was a step in the wetter direction and the 00z continued…

00z Canadian juiced things back up and supports a 3-4” snow across the tri-state…

It’s wise as a forecaster to stay in the lower end of guidance in this setup (I have 1-2” for Cincy) but there is definitely potential for overachieving if some of the wetter guidance is correct.

mikeyp wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 3:24 pm 18z Nam screws everyone lol

Indeed lol

18z HRRR says I-70 has the lower totals…

CB's first call...

Here's a look at the 12z snow maps from the models all in one spot. Did not include HRRR as it doesn't go out far enough to show total snow...

Updated forecast...

Yeah it looks like the GFS caved to the NAM. Will be adjusting my map a bit.

12z NAM continues to show our issues big time. The main reason is that the surface low is weak (what Les mentioned) and is still developing which puts us in an unfavorable position. Really just bad timing and nothing else but thats always a factor in weather. Better precip is east of us as the low b...

HRRR QPF supportive of a couple inches locally.

I will take a look at the 12z runs and make any necessary adjustments to the map. But I feel pretty good about what I came up with yesterday. Looks like its fairly similar to what ILN came up with as well. Pretty similar to our original forecast Les for 1-3" but I think most people will get 2&...

I will take a look at the 12z runs and make any necessary adjustments to the map. But I feel pretty good about what I came up with yesterday. Looks like its fairly similar to what ILN came up with as well. Pretty similar to our original forecast Les for 1-3" but I think most people will get 2&q...

Here's the SREF in map form...

Continue to watch that dryslot which has been a concern of mine for a couple days.

00z rundown...

From my FB page...

Euro 12z - it continues to show that dry slot, so it cuts down the snow for a point. IMG_0796.jpeg We're in no man's land between the waves of snow too on this run which is certainly a concern. One thing is for certain, I think location is going to be very key with this system and snowfall totals a...

Confidence for I-70 is higher, much lower down here.

My forecast confidence isn't quite there yet so I will hold for now and wait for 18z and 00z. I'll have a map tonight more than likely.

In short... if you get no wave interaction, I would go with a 1-2" event for northern posters and an inch or less for southern posters. If we can get some wave interaction then a high end advisory event if not a low end warning event (depends on degree of phasing) would be in the cards. That i...

I like what Tim mentioned. Do we see any interaction between the two waves or are they going to remain separate? That will be the difference between a little bit of snow or something more meaningful. Then, I also like Trev's point about a possible dry slot which some guidance is showing. Lots to ir...

NBM. Probably a safe route for now.
The 06z NAM concerns me a bit so I would like to see if the 12z continues or shakes it. Biggest area of uncertainty in my forecast is the tri-state area and points west unfortunately lol. Higher confidence north and east.

06z NAM illustrates one of my concerns. It phases the storm but it happens a bit too late and the low tracks too far north and we get the dry slot.

So close to being a great track for us though!

I’ve got two runs between now and map making (06z and 12z) but I am currently leaning toward maintaining the 1-3” call for the metro. I want to stay conservative for now given the reasons I mentioned above. If things continue to be more aggressive I can adjust upward by tomorrow. But I wast to play ...