Looks like some of the heaviest totals may ironically be south/sw of the metro where the screw zone was indicated by models!

Winter Storm Update [Fri 1/19/24 12:00am] Light snow continues across the tri-state, with plenty many more hours of snow to come. I am watching that area of moderate to heavy snow over Illinois as it will be tracking in our direction in a few hours time. Road conditions will continue to go downhill ...

Brwncntysnwdog wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:05 pm Light snow has started in Florence

Thanks for the report! :D

Delays/Closings Update. I expect the number to continue to exponentially increase. UPDATED THURSDAY, JAN 18 AT 8:54 PM ACHIEVEMENT CAREER ACADEMY: Closed Tomorrow ACHIEVEPOINT CAREER ACADEMY: Closed Tomorrow ALLIANCE ACADEMY: Closed Today and Tomorrow Carroll County Schools: Closed ; Traditional Sno...

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 8:51 pm Might take a bit to get saturated cvg was 30 and dp of 11 last hour, while Louisville was 31 and 23

Seeing PING reports mixed in that snow band so while you are correct, it doesn't look to be taking long.

Zoomed in view. Let's start seeing some ground reports!

Snow continues to rapidly develop to our west and southwest. It would be a good idea to get where you need to be now if you haven't already. Road conditions are going to go downhill very quickly over the next few hours.

Just another possible bust is the ratio. I have been going with maybe 12-1 but that may be low and if that somehow gets closer to 20-1 then there is the bust. Still too early but will watch this especially on Friday as temps will drop all day. Ratios should average 13-17:1 for a majority of our sno...

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 8:08 pm 0Z HRRR is def. suggesting the heaviest snows are along and SE of I-71. 2" to 2.5" has fallen by 7am tomorrow morning in that zone and it's not over yet.

Yep that's what I am expecting and backs up the placement on my map.

From a radar and mesoanalysis perspective, things look pretty darn good. Pretty confident in 3-4" isolated 5" along and east of 71.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 6:46 pm Going to get a little windy later in the day tomorrow 15-25mph maybe higher towards I70 crew. So some blowing of whatever fluffy snow falls

Yep. Going to look and feel very wintry tomorrow!

Saw a couple flakes here in AV. Heavier returns moving this way now.

12z GFS ensemble...

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:37 am Wow! You went all in Trev! Soooo GFS-like!

The forecast was weighted toward the GFS and to some extent the Euro.

Here's my latest update...

Looks like 0.30+ at CVG...

This is a solid GFS run!

I figured the NAM was going to cave and glad to see it!

Okay just worked a ten hour shift and now back in action at the desk. Will have my map posted soon.

I will be on here a lot but I will have more rapid updates posted on my FB page. I will be taking a nap early afternoon then back up for the evening and overnight hours here at the desk.

I will also be debuting a new style to snowfall forecast versus ranges so stay tuned for that.

I think the high res will cave this time. Forecast update coming mid morning which includes increased amounts for the area.

HRRR is in the drier camp. Screw zone for metro.

12z NAM vs 00z NAM. Obviously not as wet as the other models but a marked improvement for sure. I think we can start giving these wetter runs a bit more legitimacy…

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 2:01 am winter weather advisory 1-4" posted here

Nice! Our WFO will be issuing one tonight or tomorrow morning.

Also of note: while the NAM is the driest model, it did close the gap on the dryslot a bit more from 18z to 00z.

Canadian and Euro both have marked QPF increases. I have a suspicion that we may be on track for higher snowfall locally. Let’s see if the NAM follows suit.

If 06z overall continues with higher QPF totals then I will be increasing my snowfall forecast in my morning update.