Tim I expect Feb to average near normal just like Jan. Warm first half, cooler second half. You’re much more optimistic about cold late month than I but like I said I hope I’m wrong I would love another bout of winter before spring. Like I said late Feb deep cold outbreaks rarely work out. Especiall...

12z GFS snow. There's some snow snowfall across the Northern Midwest and Northern Plains but nothing too crazy, and still well below normal for them. Yet another reason we are going to struggle to get really cold. Any air coming from that direction will modify greatly by the time it gets here. I kno...

We need to see the 12Z Euro long range a few hundred miles further south if it all possible. ;) :P Yeah 12z also ditched the big ice event with that storm that I was skeptical of on the 00z run. Really hard to get big ice events with no cold air in place beforehand. Like I said earlier, our biggest...

12z GFS valid Feb 20th. If you want snow and wintry weather, this is not going to bring it.

Write-up on my page re: Feb temps.

Trev its great to have different outlooks. I know Les and I once in awhile have different opinions on the certain storms or longer term outlooks and its funny how much of the time the weather is between those two outcomes. That may be the case here as well. Tim, I like you more bullish call on a ch...

The pattern does support a potential big winter storm(s) across the eastern US but that's about all we have going for us to cash in. We know how hard it is to get that around here as timing and track and all of that has to be just right. That's why we don't see storms like that every year. So yes th...

00z Euro does give us winter weather weenies some action on the 12/13th. Heavy rains to freezing rain to snow. I still have yet to have my ice storm I predicted in my winter outlook so I would love to see it minus the power outages and impacts of course :lol: The cold air ahead of that system is mar...

Here are the latest GFS and Euro Ensembles. The expected turn to cooler is shown well on both models around the time we have been discussing. I like the numbers these models show. Nothing super cold, but rather slightly below average. It would take a stronger storm to tap into colder air to supply i...

Trev we disagree on how deep the trough will be. Models and yes they are better than 10 years ago but still have problems with new patterns. We saw this in December as it was a last minute change when models caught on to how deep and cold the PV was. Models are terrible with colder outbreaks even j...

Here's a look at the 00z GEFS run. I added in the average high line which starts at 41 and ends at 45. As we hit the last part of February there is much more fighting against cold and snow on any given year, but especially in a Nino year (albeit weakening).

Without sharper, deeper troughs it's just not going to happen. We need a more amplified pattern. Our source region for phases will not be all that great either. For winter storm potentials you don't want the air to the west and north to be marginal at best.

Great Posts this morning. Most years February is the month where you get back door cold fronts and that is where you can get some winter like weather. The PV from what most experts are talking about is a stretched out look which again brings cold air but not like in January. This looks to be locate...

Here's the GFS precip totals through the 19th. We run over an inch below normal.

Looking ahead at the latest run of the GEFS and while there continues to be support for cooler shots the second half of the month, this just continues to not look all that impressive to me. Temp anomalies look to run a couple to a few degrees cooler than normal which would put us in the upper 30s to...

Having said that, it is pretty clear that the first half of the month will be above normal and the second half below normal which should average out to normal temperatures by month's end. Looking ahead to March, it does appear we will start cooler than normal.

I definitely think we see colder shots of air second half of the month but I just don’t see anything too crazy or anything sustained. Snow chances are of course on the table but that comes down to timing and track aka luck lol

This is early, but I have to laugh- even the eclipse just barely goes to our north. This looks like most of the snow maps we've seen. ;) Screenshot 2024-02-01 094224.png It's still going to be 99.69% total in Cincinnati. The best one we've seen here in quite some time... True, and it doesn't sound ...

This is early, but I have to laugh- even the eclipse just barely goes to our north. This looks like most of the snow maps we've seen. ;) Screenshot 2024-02-01 094224.png It's still going to be 99.69% total in Cincinnati. The best one we've seen here in quite some time... True, and it doesn't sound ...

I hope for mid month and beyond we can get into a prolonged period of a nice +PNA , a nice SEridge, and a neutral NAO pattern and roll the dice for a chance at a bigger snow fall , with just enough cold Yeah that’s about our only way to be honest. Strong Ninos are just not good to snow lovers in th...

CPC update on MJO pretty much saying the same thing talked about here for a while IMG_1338.jpeg Yeah that’s one of the big reasons I’m skeptical of any big time, sustained cold the second half of Feb. Climo also fights against it. I do think the second half of the month will be cooler than the firs...

CPC update on MJO pretty much saying the same thing talked about here for a while IMG_1338.jpeg Yeah that’s one of the big reasons I’m skeptical of any big time, sustained cold the second half of Feb. Climo also fights against it. I do think the second half of the month will be cooler than the firs...

Temperature profile is going to be marginal (again) but most high-res models like a quick blast of wintry precipitation.

NAM has more of an ice signal...

HRRR smacks us with a squall line of snow. Quick inch+. Interesting...