As expected, the ensemble is much cooler than the deterministic. This is a more realistic temperature regime IMO, but I do think it is missing on some peaks and lows that will happen. I could definitely see some days in the 60s and some in the 30s down the road with an active storm track.

00z GFS ensemble isn’t finished yet but I can guarantee it will come in cooler than the deterministic run. For the long range it’s probably best to blend deterministics and ensembles…with a bit more weight on the ensembles.

00z GFS says what cool down? While that is likely overdone and not the final result, it is further evidence that a true, sustained wintry pattern is going to be hard to achieve. Best advice would be to hope we can take advantage of any cold pushes we have, however brief it is. Because other than tha...

Re: Mon/Tue system—One thing that could help it track further south is if the lead low on Saturday is stronger. That would help set the tracks for the next system to track further south. The Mon/Tue system also needs to not deepen too much. The stronger it gets the further north it will cut. I favor...

Trev... it does not need to be sustained to get snow, although it obviously would help. It is thread the needle all the way in this set up. If we get something, it'll be gone within a couple of days. Correct. Just posting evidence to support why I disagree with some other forecasts I have seen.

The 12z Euro and GFS really illustrate my thoughts well. Quick shots of cold in an overall rollercoaster temperature regime of below, normal, and above. I just don’t see the proper blocking working out that would lead to anything sustained.

Like I have mentioned many times when you get different ideas of what a forecast be it short term or long term it seems to fall somewhere in the middle by the end of the day. Very true, Tim. I say that often re: winter storm model solutions windshield-wiping from run to run. But yes, the solution i...

Looking even further ahead, I notice but do not like :lol: the signal for shots of cooler than normal temps for a good chunk of March. Much like getting a big winter storm, early springs do seem like a thing of the past around here. My March prediction on my winter outlook of a quicker flip to warme...

500mb still needs a lot of work to get anything sustained. Quick hitting troughs hence the ups and downs in temperatures. It's going to be busy as Tim said, so one would think the odds are good that we cash in on one of those dips! But then again this is the Ohio Valley

06z GFS shows a colder outlook for sure, but again notice that there is no staying power. Ups and downs, very typical for this time of year. I just really don't see anything sustained happening. Future runs will likely change as models do have a difficult time nailing down a pattern change. But like...

I’m really starting to wonder if it will even make it to 8 in the near future. May end up in the COD.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:01 am MJO has stalled in Phase 7 as of 2/5 per the Aussies. We'll have to see how long it remains in this phase.

This is something I am not surprised to see.

6Z GFS = :wub: CVG MON 18Z 12-FEB 1.9 0.5 1006 96 97 0.28 548 544 TUE 00Z 13-FEB 0.1 -4.0 1002 98 97 0.70 540 538 TUE 06Z 13-FEB -1.9 -7.9 1010 84 49 0.25 535 527 Yes that was a great run and illustrates the only way we will get meaningful snow from that system…and that is it has to phase. If it do...

00z Euro shows our issues with the Mon/Tue system as well. Even though we are north of the track it won’t matter if we don’t have cold air to work with. I see no issues for us with that system even if models start showing snowier solutions. Don’t buy into it. I will also caution models pushing back ...

00z GFS came in with a cold shot in the long range. It’s been doing that every so often. The thing is, even if we do get a day with highs in the 20s (I’m skeptical but it’s not unheard of in Feb), you’ll see that we quickly rebound. Sustained cold is just not going to happen with our setup and it be...

Latest GFS meteogram. Not looking good if you’re wanting cold and snow. I suspect some of the Mets expecting cold (CB, John Gumm, etc) will be changing their tune soon enough. Maybe not CB though…he is the King of the Weenies

12Z EPS for Mon / Tues next week is much further North and West with the surface low track then the suppressed OP Euro. 18Z OP GFS is NW too with a band of high elevation snow for the Apps. I’m not too interested in the Mon/Tue system as we rarely do well when dynamical cooling is required for snow...

Good morning all! No changes to the current forecast. Dry until Thurs night after midnight. Then we get some rain into Fri morning. Another batch Fri night into Sat morning and again late Sunday into early next week. Mild temps too. Could hit 60 on Thursday, cloud cover dependent. Can we cash in du...

Good morning all! No changes to the current forecast. Dry until Thurs night after midnight. Then we get some rain into Fri morning. Another batch Fri night into Sat morning and again late Sunday into early next week. Mild temps too. Could hit 60 on Thursday, cloud cover dependent. Can we cash in du...

For our week 3 (14-20th) colder period , going with a range of 4-8 degrees below normal average mean. Going to feel plenty cold from where we’re coming from. Ensembles have been consistent for quite some time . Modified pacific air for the OV , with deeper arctic air staying north during this perio...

12z Ensembles (in particular the Euro) hint at a moderation in temps ~20th after our cooldown mid month.

12z GFS continues to advertise any cold having a tough time sticking around. Sure last month that cold blast was impressive and struck around for a week, but I wouldn't call that sustained. Cool for a couple days behind fronts then a rebound; that has been the trend this season overall. Major impro...

12z GFS continues to advertise any cold having a tough time sticking around. Sure last month that cold blast was impressive and struck around for a week, but I wouldn't call that sustained. Cool for a couple days behind fronts then a rebound; that has been the trend this season overall. Major improv...

DCE, you posted the GFS ensemble and here is the meteogram for that same run. This illustrates what I am saying. Like I said if this setup was happening in January I would be right there with you guys.

I don't know. The 14th-20th look pretty cold to me. Yes, Canada is warm at the moment, but Alaska is very cold. There is a lot of cold air on our side of the globe. It's just bottled up in Alaska at the moment. If we see this blocking develop, just like in January after no cold was to be found in C...