We have a nice baroclinic zone for the weekend storm to tighten up along, just comes down to track and strength. I think our chances are better than this last event before the models started taking a nosedive. Not a guarantee of course, but the threat is there.

Good Morning and looks like the snow decided to stay away for the most part with the departing system. That system was always tricky and getting snow was not going to be easy with the best track because of the mild air ahead. Not sure but looks like south of here got very little snow as well. Trev ...

GFS is advertising a COLD day on Saturday. I am actually somewhat interested in our snow prospects for that system. The cold will be there, but will the moisture? We shall see. But as I have been saying again and again, very brief cold shots behind fronts (typical) and nothing more. Cold Saturday be...

06z HRRR shifted north but not enough to make a difference locally. More so saying that to show that models shifting multiple rows of counties from run to run this close to the event is wild!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 12:01 am Well ILN can trim away the WWA.

They may wait until the morning to see if there are any corrections back north before pulling the plug.

00z GFS continues the bump south. That’s a wrap folks.

Some things better change soon if you’re on team cold for the second half of February. I continue to not see anything impressive when it comes to cold.

Tellies don’t always behave like they should on paper…

Assuming guidance holds overnight ILN will drop the advisories.

Great call on the title, Les

It’s comical at this point it really is…

I can’t remember the last time we saw such a swing in the models this close to an event. Wild.

Latest NBM

Trev I agree because the heavy band may only be 2-4 counties wide and that is a small target 30 plus hours away to pin down a total. Yes very tricky. Wouldn’t blame them if ILN holds off on any headlines until tomorrow morning. Kinda good timing as most people are in Super Bowl party mode today any...

Here’s the graphic I went with on my page this morning. There is definitely a trend toward southern options. Like Bgoney said there will likely be further adjustments and even corrections so we are still in the too early to call time for now. This is why I haven’t put out numbers on my page yet. Unl...

The NBM has the sweet spot right over the tri-state.

The globals continue to largely argue against any sustained cold pattern developing. Hey Trev and I believe those numbers especially longer term will come down. My forecast for the next 25 days hinges on the PV. Even if the PV does not split or become elongated I believe temps will be 2-4 degrees b...

The globals continue to largely argue against any sustained cold pattern developing.

A higher ceiling can be achieved if we see a similar mesoscale setup as that event last January I think it was? NWS has a SPS then a WWA then a WSW. Not saying that will happen again, but these type of systems can be tricky and feature a narrow band that goes crazy.

I think confidence is increasing for a 1-3" cement snowfall for parts of the tri-state. Is that over Cincinnati or areas close by remains to be seen, but the GFS has been very consistent and the 12z Euro now shows an almost identical outcome. Not really optimistic about higher amounts attm but ...

I will add though: with these type of systems there will be a NARROW corridor that actually stacks it up. Less than the width of say, Hamilton Co. but where it comes down it will come down hard. Where that is? TBD. Super mesoscale so probably not until the event is underway. This is one of those sys...

Another one of those situations that renders Kutchera amounts maps useless Yep. The snow to liquid ratio will probably be in that 5 to 7:1 range. If we do see any snow it'll be of the concrete variety. Kuchera would be more accurate versus the 10:1 as it factors in varying ratios. Having said that,...

CVG is already up to 51 degrees. Today will be an overachiever temp wise. Tomorrow probably as well. This was my update from yesterday morning. I debated going 65 for Friday but held with 63. A SSW wind will almost always lead to overachieving temps especially this time of year without huge amounts...

06z GFS shows a Cincy bullseye for the Mon/Tue system but temps are garbage so it’d be a very wet snow with melting. We need a better phase to bring in colder air.

Feel bad for the Midwest/plains . Upcoming pattern is dryer than normal for them . So a big chunk of that area won’t be adding a whole lot of snow. Pouring rain atm in Minnesota. Northern half of the OV will also average below normal in precip Both the Midwest and Plains typically have a quieter se...

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 5:41 amIMG_1392.jpeg

Talk about a torch! Well above normal in areas that should be seeing some of the coldest air in the country this time of year. That’s a strong El Nino for ya..

As expected, the ensemble is much cooler than the deterministic. This is a more realistic temperature regime IMO, but I do think it is missing on some peaks and lows that will happen. I could definitely see some days in the 60s and some in the 30s down the road with an active storm track.