Latest ensembles... Hopefully we score on Friday as that will likely be our last meaningful and impactful accumulation for the remainder of the season. I think we get one more brief cold blast in March then that will probably do it for the season. No idea if the cold blast would yield any snow this...

Latest ensembles...

Hopefully we score on Friday as that will likely be our last meaningful and impactful accumulation for the remainder of the season.

Here's the QPF from the same model. What I like about this image is not necessarily the amounts, but rather the illustration of how banding works. Some areas score big and others not so much. Such is the nature of the game and I expect that to be the situation here as well.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:11 am 6Z RGEM bumped up the QPF a tad and it now shows isolated 4" amounts over NKY.

The even higher resolution version has a weenie band similar to the Euro.

Updated snowfall forecast map will be posted later this morning.

No surprise here that the NBM continues to increase amounts locally.

This is starting to look even more interesting! I noted that we needed to watch for a further north and wetter solution and so far the models are beginning to play ball with that idea.

Big European run for the tri-state!

Road impacts will likely be minimal from this during the day. It’s after sunset when temps drop that there will likely be some tricky spots.

If we see heavier rates, the snow can overcome the warm ground and produce more widespread travel issues during the day. Rates will be very important.

00z NAM is colder but still the weakest solution of the bunch. This run did slow it down though which is good for accumulation as more will fall later in the day.

Let’s get it Friday!

This is the best looking Euro run out of the last four cycles.

SREF is north so that's something to watch. We want the system to track further north but too far north and we get mixing issues.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 4:26 pm A low slowly strengthening along the KY / TN border is an ideal track for Cincinnati. 18Z NAM has 0.27". 18Z RGEM has 1-3" across the area. Slower moving system and the later arrival after 4 or 5pm Fri.

I have both of those models starting things around 2pm.

For max accumulation potential, we don’t want this to speed up. If it falls primarily during the day, accumulation will be harder to achieve.

NBM favors the tri-state.

NAM is also faster. Just after lunch time on Friday. High res version is also further both but rather anemic looking.

Had a feeling we’d see a north bump. Now we just don’t want too far north lol!

NAM coming in much further north. It’s a catch-22 though as we have mixing issues closely by.

00z Euro and GFS ensembles. Continuing to show a more above normal trend. Of course there will likely be a dip or two after this weekend behind fronts that is cooler than modeled, but the writing is on the wall at this point. Models are even trending warmer than I was expecting and I was already the...

RGEM is further north. It has the boundary further north and a stronger system.

Quite the boundary to work with here. With the cold high sitting further west, we need to watch and consider northward bumps in future runs. If the high were closer to us/to our north I would be more concerned about suppression. With such a stark contrast across the boundary, it would not surprise m...

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:55 am GFS getting closer to the NAM with the dreaded shrinkage of qpf

Huge decrease in QPF on this run for sure!

I don't recall ever having a winter where 90% of our storm threads turn into utter failure. For the 2023-2024 season, we've had 1 or 2 successful threads and that's been it. What have we done to piss off the snow gods? :lol: Anybody have an extra goat they don’t want , to sacrifice for the good of ...

Went ahead with a first call. Went even more conservative given the uncertainties that remain. As Bgoney and I have talked about before, it's better to add more snow than to take it away. People HATE that. I don't always follow my own advice, though

Might go a bit more conservative for my public forecast and start 1-2” for now.