Absolute Vorticity

The only changes I have in the short term is to say that the rain might be in a little earlier Thurs so we'll have to see if that screws with the t-storm threat for Thurs. The weekend looks sunny. Cold on Sat but very nice on Sun for outdoor plans. Then we all need to keep a close eye on end of Feb...

Watching Thu for a sneaky strong t’storm threat. Nothing major but isolated small hail and gusty winds possible.

00z GFS advertising quite a large multi-day severe weather outbreak a week from Tuesday. Also something to watch.

15 this morning as expected due to the snowpack, clear skies, and light winds. The snow will take a big hit today with sunshine and SW winds gusting to 30 mph this afternoon. U30s to the L40s are expected for most areas. The weather for next week is quiet with a warming trend. Expecting 50 for Pres...

2-4" forecast worked out pretty well! There is a lack of reports in KY but I do believe they came in a bit lower but overall a very solid forecast.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:06 pm A lot of the hi-res models picked up on the I-70 Snow band from late last night and this morning. I saw 5-6" totals but they weren't high enough lol That 18Z NAM'ing wasn't too far off though.

Correct.

dce wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:49 pm I really don't buy the 7-8 inch amounts the NWS is talking about, but I hope I'm wrong. If the deformation band goes bonkers in the next couple of hours then maybe.

They have 3-6" for your location. There are two Winter Storm Warnings.

Lightning strike.

This is gonna be pure rippage when it gets here. Nice!

09z SREF looking good...

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:06 am Anybody got a snow map from the 12Z NAM? Thanks!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 8:28 am The later start is huge

Agreed.

Info to go along with map... I have only heard / seen thundersnow once or twice in the 40 some years I have lived in Burlington. That would be such a treat if it actually were to occur. I don't know if anyone will see it or not, but some data does suggest some weak instability and steep lapse rates...

HRRR is advertising 1"+ per hour rates right around rush hour. Not good...

Info to go along with map...

Here ya go, Lester.

Update. 2-4" across the board. I am less worried about my southern coverage area than I previously was.

Hey Trev... even the off hour HRRR runs look good! The latest one, 9Z, has 3" for almost everyone and isolated 4" amounts where the weenie bands occur. IMO this should be a fun system and the highlight for February. Doing a snowfall map update now. 2-4" for most. I will post shortly.

HRRR continues to be really juicy. Some of these snow bands are going to be no joke. I am starting to think we may have higher road impacts than I originally thought...

00z NAM very similar to the HRRR.

Here is the 0z Hrrr. Big shift from the 12z hrrr 0z.png I like that run. Position of the heaviest band will waffle around a bit but you get the general idea. I mostly like it as it shows less on the southern side which matches my map. Too much mixing down there so I’m not buying some of the models ...

12z Euro is nearly identical to 06z.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 10:42 am GFS gives us 1". Still tries to put heaviest snow across NKY/Central & East KY.

Screenshot 2024-02-15 at 10.41.44.png

This was an improvement for the tri-state as the GFS was holding 2”+ south of the river previously.

12z high-res RGDPS is a spread the wealth outcome. Note the banding showing up and areas that don’t see as much in between. Like others have said there will be some communities that stay on the low side. I’m skeptical of the southern snows which is why I kept areas south in 1-2”. I think there will ...

My latest update...

EDIT: Blend of the Euro, RGEM, HRRR, and NAM.

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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

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