Here's the control run of the CFS seasonal model which takes us through the end of October.

There is some talk about possible drought this summer so I figured I would post some of the long range models.

1st image is the GEFS extended.
2nd image is the Euro Weeklies.
3rd image is the Euro Seasonal which takes us through August.

Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 9:05 pm

cincy bud wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 8:24 pm 825pm and I feel no humidity outside. No surge of moisture. Any thoughts?

Interesting. I felt the opposite in Maineville. Felt stuffy when I was out at 6pm.

For February it absolutely feels muggy. DP is just under 60.

One thing is for sure.... the radar won't be showing much until after dark. Then it's just a question of when the cap breaks and how much CAPE we have left from the daytime hours. This is definitely a conditional threat with high bust potential IMO. I understand why the SPC upgraded us and it's not...

That enhanced risk area is nearly identical to where I outlined the greater risk early this morning.

https://www.facebook.com/cincywxcenter/

HRRR showing supercells across the tri-state late this evening/tonight.

Watching t-storm action today folks... to me things look scattered and unorganized. Should allow us to get close to 70 again today, cloud cover dependent. Scattered rain / storms are located well to our SW trying to push up this way., We'll see. The best shot for rain may not come until the actual ...

About a 25+- degree drop in temps Wednesday morning in a 2 to 3 hour span Can’t wait 😭 You know you love it! You're no longer the heat miser, remember? :lol: Yeah but even I have my limits. This is the time of year I transition to storm mode :lol: That is true. Since we are not in a cold pattern, I...

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:29 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:27 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:08 am About a 25+- degree drop in temps Wednesday morning in a 2 to 3 hour span

Can’t wait

You know you love it! You're no longer the heat miser, remember?

Yeah but even I have my limits. This is the time of year I transition to storm mode

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:08 am About a 25+- degree drop in temps Wednesday morning in a 2 to 3 hour span

Can’t wait

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 25, 2024 10:35 am 73 is the record for tomorrow set back in 2000. I think we fall short. But you never know.

Thanks for posting that record. Used it in my post on the page.

We almost always overachieve this time of year with a nice SSW flow and sunshine.

70 is def doable tomorrow. I'm thinking low 70s actually.

I agree with the above. General rain with some thunder and lightning. Could still see up to 1" of rain for totals so a nice soaking indeed which we still could use. I also don’t like the second LP popping. It’ll muck up the atmosphere for better severe odds. As soon as I started seeing that I’...

SPC has marginal for the tri-state for Tuesday/Tuesday night which I agree with. I have definitely become less impressed with our severe potential over the last couple days of model runs. Still isolated severe and something to keep an eye on of course!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 23, 2024 9:23 am Last year compared to this year at this date




IMG_1488.jpegIMG_1489.jpeg

Zoom of Cincinnati this season. Pretty pitiful, but our seasonal average is low compared to areas north because we do see winters like this mixed in. Just the way it goes here in Cincinnati!

Zero difference for us but totally different for the Northern Midwest and Northern Plains.

My forecast…

Add the Canadian to the GFS’s camp for Friday night/Sat morning. I had 50% snow PoPs in my update yesterday and honestly I do buy wetter solutions. Will probably up to likely PoPs in my new update. I could see up to an inch of slushy accum on grass/car tops/etc wherever the little system tracks. No ...

12Z GFS continues to have rain chances Tues and Wed, On this run, we have a wave along the front and an upper low to produce a bit of snow on the 29th. That would be interesting. :lol: GFS also puts down some slushy accumulations late Friday night/early Sat AM. It’s the only model that aggressive w...

Both the 00z GFS and Euro advertise a WICKED storm next week. Severe storms to a thump of snow. Highs winds as well. I’ve been talking about this on my page for a while now but man that was a wild run.

The only changes I have in the short term is to say that the rain might be in a little earlier Thurs so we'll have to see if that screws with the t-storm threat for Thurs. The weekend looks sunny. Cold on Sat but very nice on Sun for outdoor plans. Then we all need to keep a close eye on end of Feb...

Watching Thu for a sneaky strong t’storm threat. Nothing major but isolated small hail and gusty winds possible.

00z GFS advertising quite a large multi-day severe weather outbreak a week from Tuesday. Also something to watch.

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