There you go. Or first Winter Weather Advisory of the season. ILN is calling for up to 2 inches in northern areas. Up to 1 inch in the southern areas of the forecast area.

Lightning tomorrow, anyone? High-res models are picking up on it. Actually is fairly typical to have some of that going on during "peak heating" under a strong ULL. We should have some steep lapse rates too. The snow squall parameter looked decent especially for folks north of the river. ...

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:11 am No one guessed FMS 12/18.

If it does accumulate at CVG on the 18th Bgoney would win as he guessed 12/22.

Here's my snowfall forecast update (graphic and text discussion)... https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=748134197340657&set=a.574742584679820 I truly hope that verifies for us snow starved weather weenies. Seems plausible to me considering how potent that little upper level wave is. Should look...

Anybody have any data on what the latest measurable snowfall has been for Cincy, Dayton and Columbus? Grandma Wooly can't find our records here at the woodpile. CVG: 0.1" 1/12/1983 DAY: 0.5" 1/4/1941 CMH: 1.0" 1/10/2016 I found all the above info here: https://www.weather.gov/iln/cli...

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2023 11:24 am KDAY week of 12/11/23 - 12/15/23

Mon: -1 38/28 -1

Tues: +6 44/26 +3

Wed: +3 40/24 Nailed the Low!

Thurs: +7 42/22 +2

Fri: +8 48/24 +5

At least we weren't shut out this week Eric.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2023 10:34 am New MEI value is out for ON. It is at 0.8 per: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Wow. You can clearly see on the chart the other 3 super ninos. Way over 2.0. This Super Nino is very different. Hopefully we get a different outcome. We all know how bad those Ninos were.

Not really buying the east track personally. I think the next couple of runs will bring it back west. Even the Euro trended eastward to the coast on this run. I suspect we are seeing the windshield wiper effect and it will come back a little to the west on subsequent runs. We are still about 3 days...

KDAY 12/11 - 12/15:

Mon: Nailed! 37/28 -1

Tues: +3 47/27 +2

Wed: +1 42/26 -2

Thur: +5 44/24 Got it!

Fri: +6 50/27 +2

dce wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 7:58 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 8:25 am We both nailed the Mon high, bro!

We usually don't guess the same. That's unusual!

At least we nailed a couple this week Eric.

The 18z NAM doing what the NAM does. I would say this is HIGHLY unlikely.

The Euro also says that we will stay all rain. Looks like a decent snowstorm for Pennsylvania on up into interior New England. Just not enough arctic air around for the Midwest to get much snow from this.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 8:25 am We both nailed the Mon high, bro!

We usually don't guess the same. That's unusual!

There have been a few flakes mixing in from time to time around the Dayton area, but mostly a light rain.

KDAY 12/4 - 12/8:

Mon: Nailed! 44/33 -3

Tues: +2 39/30 +6

Wed: -1 43/31 -1

Thur: +3 51/29 +2

Fri: +7 52/38 +7

I find it interesting that we get this pretty healthy trough digging into the central and eastern part of the country behind next week's storm considering the MJO will have been traveling through the warm phases over the next week. If this were to verify it would go to show the MJO phase doesn't alw...

Good Morning and some wonderful posts and different ideas on how the current pattern is and what happens in the future. The old saying we can agree to disagree but in a very polite way is always the way to go imo. Bgoney mentioned that Siberia is going to get cold and that is true because the AO ha...

The 12z Euro has a system on Monday and then again on Tuesday of next week diving into our region producing some light snow. The CMC and GFS do not have these 2 systems.

KDAY 11/27 - 12/1:

Mon: Nailed! 34/29

Tues: -2 30/20 -3

Wed: +1 43/18 Got it!

Thur: +9 49/26 +8

Fri: +8 55/38 +5

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:02 pm KDAY week of 11/20/23 - 11/24/23

Mon: Nailed the High! 50/34 +4

Tues: -2 54/44 -2

Wed: +4 44/36 -2

Thanksgiving Day: +5 48/28 +5

Black Fri: 46/32

Not our best week, but great job on the Monday high!

0Z EPS vs the new 12Z run. This is centered on the Dec 3rd - 8th five day mean. Note more Western US ridging. I wish it was a little further West with the ridge axis though. That is really the only problem that I have with it. Nov24_EPScompare.thumb.gif.2a0eb1781e875a54a0bf23a51c2fbe7c.gif Seems to...

-PDO not going anywhere soon, hanging tough IMG_0856.gif What stands out to me, along with the -PDO, is that the temperatures across the equatorial Pacific are becoming more uniformly equal across all 4 enso regions. Many models have an El Modoki developing during the winter months. I'm curious to ...

KDAY 11/20 - 11/24:

Mon: -2 52/34 +4

Tues: -4 56/45 -3

Wed: +6 42/35 -1

Thur: +5 48/29 +4

Fri: -5 45/31 -5

A non phased system for next week from both the GFS and CMC on today's 12z run. Thus not as cold next week. We will see what happens in future runs.

Good afternoon all... no changes to the forecast thru the weekend. Upper 60s maybe even 70 today and tomorrow then we get our 1/4" of rain on Friday that Trev was mentioning this morning. Maybe an isolated 1/2" amount for a select few. Then we are cooler and dry for this weekend. The patt...