With today's 12z European the low ends up in northeast Ohio compared to lower Michigan on the 00z run. Quite a shift in placement. This particular run doesn't help us out in the snow department, but it does suggest, as we have already discussed, watching future runs for possible improvement for AV l...

Today's 12z GFS for next Tuesday. That's pretty cold.

00z GFS...964mb...incredible! Might have to rename this La Bomba II! They would be incredible to see. That would probably shut Indiana down for a day or two. Even Western Ohio would see impacts with winds that high with just a couple inches of snow. We need that thing to weaken just a tad for a cen...

00z GFS...964mb...incredible! Might have to rename this La Bomba II! They would be incredible to see. That would probably shut Indiana down for a day or two. Even Western Ohio would see impacts with winds that high with just a couple inches of snow. We need that thing to weaken just a tad for a cen...

KDAY 1/8 - 1/12:

Mon: +2 37/28 +5

Tues: -2 52/35 Nailed!

Wed: +5 33/29 +3

Thur: +6 39/26 +2

Fri: +6 42/28 +2

We are on the warm side of every storm on today's 12z Euro until we get to about day 9. Still much to be figured out from a modeling standpoint. I hope we don't continue this Indiana/ Illinois storm track too much longer. Would hate to see a good pattern not bearing any fruit.

All snow in Vandalia. It took a little while to moisten the atmosphere. It's coming down at a good clip. A thin layer of white covering everything. By the looks of radar it should begin to pick up in intensity for a bit. I would expect to receive about an inch up here. We will see.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:39 am This system is overperforming down in NW AR. Seeing 2-3" reports already coming out of Fayetteville!

The GFS is showing rain in NW Arkansas. Less than an inch of snow. This model is off from the beginning. The short range models are definitely the way to go in my opinion.

Anyone got a QPF total from the 12Z NAM? I can't access Accuwx Pro from the customer side. Thanks! Based on what I am seeing, we should be getting NAM'ed! :lol: Two snow maps. One for Saturday and the other is the total with Sunday's snow. nam 12z wave1.pngnam 12z wave 2.png Personally, for the I-7...

Should we expect a winter storm warning? I'm guessing Winter Weather Advisory. Temps will be marginal. ILN is historically reluctant to go with a warning. Most of the time they start out with an Advisory and upgrade to a warning if necessary. I think an Advisory to start out fits this storm perfect...

These forecasted snowfall maps by the NWS seem to always be wrong. Most of the time, very wrong. This map has the heaviest accumulation to the north of and along I-70. Very little in northern Kentucky. No model is showing this. What is the thought process? Are these maps from ILN or do they originat...

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 4:34 pm 18Z RGEM looks good for the Tristate. 0.25" of QPF to work with. 18Z NAM only about 0.12" for Sat and 0.11" on Sun. (That is for CVG).

18z HRRR looks pretty good as well. Even the I-70 crew.

FWIW the UKMET still shows a little love. A trend that is showing up on the majority of the models is a little more snow in Indiana that dies out as it heads toward Ohio. I can't see Pivotal on the customer side here at work (Would have to jump on my work laptop) but based on that snow map, my assu...

FWIW the UKMET still shows a little love. A trend that is showing up on the majority of the models is a little more snow in Indiana that dies out as it heads toward Ohio.

The NAM isn't even showing much snow at the end of its run for the Northeast. This is vastly different from the other models. I'm inclined to say the NAM may be clueless with this storm. Either that or it's leading the way and the rest of the models will lower snow totals significantly in the runs t...

As Aaron put it, the "model wobble" continues on the 00z runs. Both the GFS and Euro have come in much weaker with the northern (lead) low, and thus have significantly reduced precipitation amounts. That is essentially what it comes down to. Weak lead low, low precipitation amounts. Stron...

The 00z Euro nails New York City to Boston. Our forum area gets basically no snow on this run. The 00z suite as a whole is definitely a step in the wrong direction for accumulating snowfall in our area. Still time for a bit of a reversal, but it's not very encouraging at this point.

Well, the 00z run of models didn't help our cause for this weekend. This storm trended better for the coastal cities from DC to NY but not for the Ohio Valley. The UKMET and the CANADIAN models offer us a 1-3 inch snowfall. The GFS says not much to write home about. My guess is that the EUROPEAN wil...

18Z GFS is definitely coming in weaker unfortunately. A tenth of an inch at CVG for QPF. Time to throw those rotten tomatoes at Trev! :lol: Still 4 days out. Not much of a concern in my opinion. We often see these fluctuations 3-5 days out. We shall see. I know. I was joking with Trev. ;) :oops: :l...

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:00 pm 18Z GFS is definitely coming in weaker unfortunately. A tenth of an inch at CVG for QPF. Time to throw those rotten tomatoes at Trev!

Still 4 days out. Not much of a concern in my opinion. We often see these fluctuations 3-5 days out. We shall see.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 9:16 am KDAY week of 1/1/24 - 1/5/24

New Year's Day: -1 38/28 +3 **root beer**

Tues: 40/26

Wed: 42/28

Thurs: 34/26

Fri: 38/20

I'm a little late this week Eric. I'll let you do the honors this week. Will be back at it next week my friend.

The ceiling really is very high for my bomb. That is going to be one hell of a storm in terms of size, strength, and impact. Honestly could be a kitchen sink situation for us, Les. Some wintry, wet, and windy. That's going to be a fun one to watch... I would think that with the historically warm la...

The European is back to showing an out and out split of the polar vortex. Just like Tim said yesterday, it may indeed switch back. Now we have to see if it holds. If today's run of the European is correct, the middle of January is going to get very cold around here.

Today's European for the next ten days! This is at a 10:1 ratio! Yikes! Back to back big storms. Lots of model tracking to come! Finally, we have something interesting to keep our interests this week and next. Finally! I almost feel like an Internet troll for posting that, but what the heck! We're ...

Today's European for the next ten days! This is at a 10:1 ratio! Yikes!