Actually, 12z Euro gives CVG 0.05" of QPF Mon night so with ratios maybe an inch of snow. The Euro is really close to putting more moisture down in the Ohio Valley. It's trying but won't pull the trigger. It's a step in the right direction. Still 3 days away. The trends today have been in the ...

The UKIE is showing an inch and a half from Dayton to Cincinnati. With higher ratios, not exactly sure what they would be, but at 20:1 that should be a 3 inch snowfall. And that was just a 24 hr period of snow. All conjecture at this point, but it's good to see a couple of the models depict this sec...

The UKMET is back to showing a little snow for us. The models sure are having a hard time figuring out these waves of energy. Expect more changes in the coming model runs. This is a 24 hr snowfall map from about midday Monday to midday Tuesday at a 10:1 ratio. You would think with higher ratios this...

The GFS is more out to sea on this run. No help for us.

Starting to see some model agreement here with the 12Z NAM and RGEM. At 84 hours, both models develop a low down in the Western Gulf. This is what will become the main storm for the Lower OV, TN Valley, Mid Atlantic and East Coast next week. How strong that low gets as well as its track, will deter...

The 18Z NAM is awful like the Euro as in what storm? 18Z GFS is pitiful for the first piece but is not horrible for the second one. CVG MON 18Z 15-JAN -7.5 -13.0 1029 73 96 0.02 547 525 TUE 00Z 16-JAN -7.5 -12.9 1027 87 96 0.02 546 525 TUE 06Z 16-JAN -8.2 -12.5 1024 79 94 0.01 543 525 TUE 12Z 16-JA...

FWIW, the 12Z ICON has been another model showing the 1 storm deal and it's a nice hit too! Wonder if the UKIE will still show the 1 wave deal like it has been or does it cave to the GFS and Euro solutions? There you go. Cave. That's still pretty good...remember ratios will be much higher then your...

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:35 am FWIW, the 12Z ICON has been another model showing the 1 storm deal and it's a nice hit too! Wonder if the UKIE will still show the 1 wave deal like it has been or does it cave to the GFS and Euro solutions?

There you go. Cave. Went a little south. Not sure if is this is one wave or two waves.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:53 am 12Z NAM looks to be going the Euro route too with the earlier occlusion and reduction in QPF. 1/4 to 1/2" totals.

The 3km is much further east. Probably not correct.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:39 am

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:13 am For what it's worth. And I'm not sure it's worth anything, but the UKMET is all in for this system. By far the strongest for AV land.

Lock it in!

I will!

For what it's worth. And I'm not sure it's worth anything, but the UKMET is all in for this system. By far the strongest for AV land.

The 00z Euro and today's 12z.

12Z UKIE is out but on the customer side I can't get to the better maps on Pivotal Weather. Is it showing the bigger solution (CMC / Euro) or the weaker more suppressed look of the GFS? Thanks! A little hard for me to decipher, but if I'm not mistaken it is a very good run. Euro and CMC like. I thi...

12Z Canadian (and prior runs too) continue to show a much bigger storm system! At 500 MB you can see why. Our shortwave doesn't get sheared out and you even get a little phasing with the STJ and polar jets too. The CMC and Euro continue to be in the stronger camp. I like those odds. The CMC has had...

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 3:17 pm Unfortunately none of those change what qpf is left on the backside and the colder temps. A max of .20” or less

Not our storm. I would think that the GFS track would offer a little more hope for an inch or two. So far we have a decent pattern, but same ol same ol unfortunately.

Posted on Facebook by BamWx. The low will ultimately be somewhere in the middle of this spread.

Doug,,, I am expecting a low track near Cincinnati at this time with an inch or so of heavy rain and 1-2" possible for back side snows. Sounds like a good call to me. The GFS has been consistently the farthest east with the track. I,too ,would expect a little shift to the south and east by the...

Pretty substantial shift east on the 12z GFS for 00z Sat. 00z run last night had the low on the IL/IN border, 12z run today has it over SW OH... The CMC as well. The low was over northern Indiana on the 00z. Northwest Ohio on the 12z. So far the models have had the windshield wiper effect the last ...

The 12z GFS is definitely no help for snow around AV land. Snow to the north, south, east, and west. We need to catch a break. The models haven't had any dramatic shifts whatsoever in this new pattern.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 8:04 am GFS has been slowly sliding east with the track. Got to keep an eye on that.

It has. Let's hope that for once it does better than the Euro. Here's the ensemble means.

I am not feeling great about the MLK storm but trying to remember that we have 2 storms to get through first. Anything is possible! From a modeling standpoint our chances for snow look slim at the moment. It's an extreme pattern we have began to enter, so hopefully, something will break in our favor.

With today's 12z European the low ends up in northeast Ohio compared to lower Michigan on the 00z run. Quite a shift in placement. This particular run doesn't help us out in the snow department, but it does suggest, as we have already discussed, watching future runs for possible improvement for AV l...

Today's 12z GFS for next Tuesday. That's pretty cold.

00z GFS...964mb...incredible! Might have to rename this La Bomba II! They would be incredible to see. That would probably shut Indiana down for a day or two. Even Western Ohio would see impacts with winds that high with just a couple inches of snow. We need that thing to weaken just a tad for a cen...

00z GFS...964mb...incredible! Might have to rename this La Bomba II! They would be incredible to see. That would probably shut Indiana down for a day or two. Even Western Ohio would see impacts with winds that high with just a couple inches of snow. We need that thing to weaken just a tad for a cen...