And the GFS at the end of its run. A snowstorm in Mexico.

KDAY 1/29 - 2/2:

Mon: +1 36/32 +1

Tues: -2 37/30 +2

Wed: +1 40/32 +3

Thur: +3 49/34 Nailed one!

Fri: +6 41/33 -4

I believe that someplace in Northwest Ohio and Eastern Indiana is going to get a thump of snow tonight. Something like 2-4 inches. It's impossible to forecast this and impossible to know how wide or narrow this stripe of snow will be, but I think there will be a narrow band of a 2-4 inch type thump.

I continue to be encouraged that the MJO continues to truck along stronger than models have been predicting. Today or tomorrow at the latest we should be in phase 7. Who knows if it continues into phase 8, stalls out, or dies out. Time will tell.

Seasonal Snowfall.png KDAY has had 7.5 inches to date so there, technically speaking, should be a darker blue around that area. But I'm sure this is a very good representation of what has occurred. Dayton is only a little over 5 inches below normal for the season so it's not impossible to still get...

Somebody just got Nam'ed.

Tim, the NAM has caught onto your idea. A little north and west for our liking, but hopefully it's seeing air that is just cold enough.

The GFS is certainly the most bullish on rain to snow this weekend. Not saying it's right because the other models haven't jumped on board. The atmosphere is teetering between plain ole rain and a couple inches of wet snow. Tim touched on this threat. It may not materialize, but the atmosphere is oh...

Praying. God bless you and your family!

Agree with dce that upcoming pattern is what we saw in December/early January, the dreaded “marginal airmass pattern “ which the OV doesn’t usually do well for significant winter events. Looks for now to last well into the first week of February. After that , imo still depends on a favorable MJO fo...

Good Morning and it seems we dodged a bullet though a few places and of course sidewalks could have a thin layer of ice but by 9am most surfaces should be above 32. Doug was correct yesterday afternoon and the warming was greater than models were showing earlier and I thought temps would drop more ...

Long term and though we know wet and mild this week what happens once you get into the weekend and next week. Temps should still be milder than normal but not by much as we will be on the western edge of some colder air as a trough develops off to the east. Can we get snow in this pattern and yes b...

Looks like the warm air just may be winning out. Seems to be a little less of an ice threat compared to earlier.

18Z NAM continues to bring in the rain by 3am. It has surface temps of 34 by then. I think that is a smidge too warm. And as ILN says that is 6 feet off the ground so the actual surface would be cooler. 18Z RGEM isn't as nasty with the frz rain as the 12Z run because the rain takes a bit longer to ...

KDAY officially received 1.9 inches today and .3 inches yesterday for a storm total of 2.2

.12 inches of precip for that 1.9 inches of snow. Pretty high ratio.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:14 am

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:12 am I'm guessing the ratios up by I-70 where greater than 15:1 based on radar returns compared to actual snowfall measurements. We'll see.

How much do you have Doug?

My guess is around 2 inches here in Huber heights.

I'm guessing the ratios up by I-70 where greater than 15:1 based on radar returns compared to actual snowfall measurements. We'll see.

I can safely call this a bust for the immediate I-70 area. Little more than a covering so far. Looking at radar the best returns are going to probably pivot south of 70. The northern half of the Miami Valley was forecast to get 3-5 inches and that looks to be a pretty big bust. Cincinnati looks to b...

So far this heavier snows have stayed south. Going to be a lot of busted forecasts especially north of I-70.

The snow looks to be developing quickly. Should begin to see some flakes very shortly.

00z HRRR

It looks to me like the two waves have already linked together. Precipitation from both areas have merged.

Snow squall warnings with this piece of energy. Nice to see that type of energy.

A nice run from the 12z Euro. 10:1 ratio.

It's been snowing lightly in Richmond, Indiana for about an hour now.