Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

We have 1 wave right now that has 20 / 30 for odds.

[tron777]

We've got a new wave now that has odds of 40 / 90 for development.

[tron777]

That tropical wave has a 90% chance now.

[tron777]

TD 19E is out there now. This one is expected to become Roslyn and potentially a hurricane before hitting Mexico on Monday of next week.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 102.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[tron777]

TS Roslyn now has winds of 65 mph moving WNW at 7. This one is expected to become a hurricane tonight and potentially close to a major cane when it makes landfall in Mexico by Monday.

[tron777]

Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
600 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022


...CENTER OF ROSLYN MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN NAYARIT...
...BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 105.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

[tron777]

The East Pac is about ready to get on the board with an 80% chance of a wave off of Mexico developing over the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

Hurricane Adrian has winds of 85 mph moving WNW at 8. This system will stay out over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific. Beyond that one, off the Mexican Coast, TD 2E has winds of 35 mph moving WNW at 14, This one is excepted to become a TS soon.

[tron777]

Adrian has winds of 100 mph moving WNW at 7. TS Beatriz has winds of 65 mph moving WNW at 13. She will also become a hurricane and parallel the Coast then clip the Southern tip of the Baja before turning west and heading out to sea.

[tron777]

A wave off the Mexican Coast has an 80% chance of development in the next 3-5 days. It will be moving generally westward away from the coast.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

Still watching a wave off the Mexican Coast that has a 90% chance to develop.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

TS Calvin has winds of 45 mph moving to the West. He is expected to not bother any land areas but become a hurricane over the next few days.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.s ... t#contents

[tron777]

Calvin is a Cat 2 cane with winds of 10-5 mph moving W at 16 away from land.

[tron777]

Calvin still holding at 105 mph but will weaken as it heads over cooler East Pac waters. This one may bring rain and wind to Hawaii as it weakens into a depression by the middle of next week.

[tron777]

A wave off the Mexican coast looks to be the next named system we see... a 90% chance of development.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

Hurricane Dora has winds of 130 mph and will pass well south of Hawaii and not really bother any land masses. There is another wave off the Mexican Coast which is likely to become the next named system in the next few days.

[tron777]

Dora continues to slowly weaken with winds down to 115 mph racing to the West at 18 mph. This one will pass well S of Hawaii and eventually cross over the Date Line into the West Pac.

We also have TD 6E now off the Mexican Coast. This one is moving to the NW and will become a TS shortly. However, it is expected that this system remain a TS then weaken as it moves over colder waters in due time.

[tron777]

Dora has actually ramped back up to a strong Cat 4 with winds of 145 mph moving W at 21 mph towards the Central Pacific.

TD 6E is now TS Eugene with winds of 65 mph moving NW at 14 mph. This one could briefly become a weak 'cane then dropping back to TS status. Then in time, it may hook NE towards the SW US as a depression and weaken further with time. Does any of that moisture get injected into the SW CONUS? We don't know if the storm will come that far NE before petering out. We shall see over the next week what happens.

[tron777]

Dora has winds of 130 mph moving W at 22 mph. It is well South of Hawaii but the wind fields are so big that 80 mph gusts have been reported on the Big Island and this has resulted in several large wildfires. Officials won't be able to get it under control until the hurricane moves a little further away and thus the winds will begin to relax.

Next up is a wave off the Mexican coast that now has a 60% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

[tron777]

Dora still has winds of 115 mph! She will finally weaken and dissipate once we get into the middle of next week. Still watching a wave off the Mexican Coast that has an 80% chance of developing over the next 5 days. Another wave has a 30% chance that is located further to the West over the Central Pacific moving slowly WNW at 10 mph.

[tron777]

While the Atlantic remains quiet, the East Pac is ramping up! We have TS Fernando with winds of 50 mph moving WNW at 10. This one is expected to become a hurricane by tonight then weaken back into a TS around the middle of next week.

We also have a tropical wave that is soon to become a depression in the next day or two. It is located about 1500 miles ESE of the Hawaiian Islands moving WNW at 10. This system should cross over into the Central Pacific basin by morning.

Finally, our next wave that has moved off of the Mexican Coast has a 90% chance of becoming a depression towards the middle of next week.

[tron777]

Fernanda is now a hurricane with winds of 130 mph moving to the West at 8 mph. No threat to land at this time and this one should weaken in the next 36 to 48 hours.

We now have TS Greg with winds of 40 mph moving to the W at 13 mph. Greg is expected to remain a TS and pass well south of the Hawaiian Islands.

Still waiting on that wave off the Mexican Coast to become a depression. A 60% chance in the next couple of days, a 90% chance within the next 5 days for development.

[tron777]

We can add TS Hilary to the list now with winds of 40 mph moving WNW at 14 mph. This system is expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow max out as a Cat 3, then weaken as it encounters cooler waters. This is the system that Joe mentioned in our August monthly thread that has the potential to track North into S California by late in the weekend or early next week. If correct serious flash flooding and mudslides are likely in the mountains and desert regions of CA, AZ, etc. It remains to be seen where that leftover moisture goes after that. We could be tracking that down the road in our August thread. We'll see what happens.

Track.png

[tron777]

TS Fernanda has winds of 40 mph moving W at 15 mph. Further weakening is forecast and this one should be done by this weekend.
TS Greg out in the Central Pacific has winds of 45 mph moving W at 15. This one should also be gone by this weekend.

Finally, closer to home Hilary is now a hurricane with winds of 75 mph moving WNW at 13. This one could come close to Cat 4 status in the next 48 hours before it starts to weaken. The current NHC Advisory is below. Hilary is expected to approach the Baja Penn. this weekend.

Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 4A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
600 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Corrected header to show hurricane

...HILARY BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 107.1W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Hilary. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for a portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 107.1 West. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California
peninsula over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Hilary
could become a major hurricane by tonight or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).