November 2021 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Going to bring up a couple of things this morning. First Bgoney mentioned the mjo and how it has really been sort of stuck in phase 4 or 5 and moving quite slow. This is so true and why we keep having the old rinse and repeat with weather systems. Once we get into December those phases are much milder so we no doubt need to start moving away from those in the next week or so.

I want to thank the folks who run this site and giving me the freedom to post my thoughts concerning the weather. I know some sights where they will not let you post if the models don't show what you are talking about. Not sure why those folks would set up a policy like that and to me this site has a wide range of folks who love the weather but also have different styles in making forecasts. Never even looked at at model until I found Rich A site years ago and the first winter season I went all in with the models and had my worse winter forecasting season ever. My wife told me to return to your gut as that has served you well over the years. Sure I will miss forecasts but imo no worse than the models as we know Mother Nature is in control.

[tron777]

I like the idea of people having different ways of forecasting. I'm a model guy and sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. Tim is excellent at pattern recognition and using his experience in that area to make forecasts and the same thing happens. Like you said Tim, Mother Nature is in control and we just do the best we can in trying to predict her lol I respect anyone who comes up with a forecast no matter what their style is. It's a tough game to play but I love it and will always come back for more.

Getting back to the MJO discussion and I am seeing Phase 6, then 7 coming by the time we get into early December. If the Aussie Model is correct, Phase 8 is possible by the 2nd week or so of Dec so by mid Dec, the pattern would be supportive for cold and snow. As usual, we shall see how that shakes out.

[tpweather]

I like the idea of people having different ways of forecasting. I'm a model guy and sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. Tim is excellent at pattern recognition and using his experience in that area to make forecasts and the same thing happens. Like you said Tim, Mother Nature is in control and we just do the best we can in trying to predict her lol I respect anyone who comes up with a forecast no matter what their style is. It's a tough game to play but I love it and will always come back for more.

Getting back to the MJO discussion and I am seeing Phase 6, then 7 coming by the time we get into early December. If the Aussie Model is correct, Phase 8 is possible by the 2nd week or so of Dec so by mid Dec, the pattern would be supportive for cold and snow. As usual, we shall see how that shakes out.

Les the Aussie model is usually really good and tend to follow that model. This would no doubt support a warm up like we expect and then a turn to cold and hopefully snowy.

[cloudy72]

Down to 19 in my hood.

[tron777]

BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/23/snowta ... blog-1123/

[Mjr]

Good morning All..
19 degrees was my low here in Amelia.
Interesting to note: I have 3 sweet gum trees bordering my first fence line in my backyard. Two of them have dropped all their leaves, but the one closest to our shed is still full. Not a fan of those trees. Mattp

[tron777]

Good morning All..
19 degrees was my low here in Amelia.
Interesting to note: I have 3 sweet gum trees bordering my first fence line in my backyard. Two of them have dropped all their leaves, but the one closest to our shed is still full. Not a fan of those trees. Mattp

Same here, Matt. I cut mine down a few years ago. Those little balls that they drop shoot out like missiles when you mow and they aren't very pleasant if you step on one.

[tpweather]

Good morning All..
19 degrees was my low here in Amelia.
Interesting to note: I have 3 sweet gum trees bordering my first fence line in my backyard. Two of them have dropped all their leaves, but the one closest to our shed is still full. Not a fan of those trees. Mattp

Same here, Matt. I cut mine down a few years ago. Those little balls that they drop shoot out like missiles when you mow and they aren't very pleasant if you step on one.

Had one at my previous house and they are just a pain. They get into the sewer lines as well and this happen to me and ended up having a backup in the basement. Good Luck Matt.

[Browneyedgirl]

I have a huge maple tree that is still holding on to a lot of leaves. I’ll be leaf mulching on Christmas Day at this rate.

[tron777]

I have a huge maple tree that is still holding on to a lot of leaves. I’ll be leaf mulching on Christmas Day at this rate.

Same with the oaks lol

[MVWxObserver]

Still a ways off, but am going to keep tabs on the week of Dec 13th as this year my sister, bil, niece, and nephew will be coming up to be with my folks and I for an early Christmas. Haven't gotten together in years for the Yule season as we usually Skype, so this will be a real treat!

Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville and progged for around 40.

[tron777]

12Z GFS still shears out the energy for that clipper system this weekend. 12Z CMC has shifted well north with the track on todays run. Even more north then what the 0Z Euro had. 12Z GEFS members are coming in all over the place with track and strength. However, more members at least show that system vs 0Z. 12Z UKIE has it but way north also with the track.

[Bgoney]

I like what I'm seeing on the GFS fantasy range . During the first week of Dec. a monster ridge is nudging into west Alaska and expanding towards -EPOland. That could be the beginning of a pattern change for the OV after the 7th. Looking for multiple model runs over the next few days to keep showing this or possibly backing off .

500h_anom.na.png

[tron777]

If the MJO going into Phase 8 by the second week of December is correct (per the Aussie model), then we should be seeing some continued changes in fantasy land towards a more colder and wintry look. Would love to see that ridging being shown above to be a little further east but I agree... it is an improvement for sure.

[Bgoney]

No doubt it needs to be east and extrapolating a bit , after finally pushing the GOA trough off its high horse and down the west coast , hopefully the progression is to expand east to the Yukon and the trough then moving into the center of the country, and a ridge takes its place along the coast and then joins the Alaska ridge and wah-lah. That's not asking to much, is it?

[tron777]

No doubt it needs to be east and extrapolating a bit , after finally pushing the GOA trough off its high horse and down the west coast , hopefully the progression is to expand east to the Yukon and the trough then moving into the center of the country, and a ridge takes its place along the coast and then joins the Alaska ridge and wah-lah. That's not asking to much, is it?

No, not at all! First step is getting the GOA trough out of there for sure then we can deal with the rest later,

[tron777]

12z Euro is also north with the clipper. Rain to snow.

[tron777]

Tomorrow, the biggest travel day of the year, looks good across our region. Locally, expect sunshine to start with increasing clouds and temps in the low 50s. Rain moves in late Wed night and into the day on Thanksgiving. That system should pull out during the evening hours. Maybe some flakes for those to the north but that chance is not really as good as it once looked. Cold for Black Friday with highs only in the 30s. We should moderate into the 40s over the weekend. Then do we get the clipper or not for Sunday / Mon of next week. Models differ on timing, strength, and even the track of that system. Very low confidence forecast for late this weekend into next week.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and a few things to talk about this afternoon. First the Aussies have declared that we are in a La Nina. Was not official until today. They expect the waters to continue to get colder but expect a short-lived episode. That tells me a weak La Nina but saying that expect with the cooling to continue over the next few months that this helps us in getting some decent winter weather.

The second thing we seldom talk about is the southwest ridge that has been going on this fall. We talk about the southeast ridge that can be a pain for us in keeping us milder that normal but so far this season the southeast has not been at play and matter of fact frost and freeze warnings in northern Florida tonight which is early in the season for them.

How does this southwest ridge affect the weather and its one we don't always see in the late fall and winter and one that I need to study more because I believe their are affects to this and how systems well southwest of us will work around that ridge this winter. I also believe this ridge is helping in two areas and that is keeping troughs from digging to deep into the west plus when we get the correct pattern it will be that much easier for ridges to form and expand towards the poles out west. The bad thing is if it expands further east like it has this fall and we see the central and southern plains get very warm and that warmth tries to outdo the cold.

[tron777]

Tim.... the SW ridge is okay but we really need to see a ridge extend further to the north all the way up into Alaska. You really need a +PNA / -EPO combo. The ridge would extend along the entire West Coast of North America. That creates cross polar flow and buckles the jet enough to deliver cold into the Eastern US. If the ridge is only over the SW US, then you don't really get the arctic air for storm systems to tap into. It's okay to have a SW ridge, I mean it is better then a trough of course but a SW ridge only is flat. You still get the Pacific Jet to roll into SW Canada and NW US. The cold we get is more modified in nature and not a true arctic airmass which is needed IMHO for better chances at wintry weather. So in short, a SW ridge is not a bad thing at all, but you need the ridge to extend more poleward along the entire West Coast of North America to have a more profound impact on our weather for snow lovers.

[tpweather]

Tim.... the SW ridge is okay but we really need to see a ridge extend further to the north all the way up into Alaska. You really need a +PNA / -EPO combo. The ridge would extend along the entire West Coast of North America. That creates cross polar flow and buckles the jet enough to deliver cold into the Eastern US. If the ridge is only over the SW US, then you don't really get the arctic air for storm systems to tap into. It's okay to have a SW ridge, I mean it is better then a trough of course but a SW ridge only is flat. You still get the Pacific Jet to roll into SW Canada and NW US. The cold we get is more modified in nature and not a true arctic airmass which is needed IMHO for better chances at wintry weather. So in short, a SW ridge is not a bad thing at all, but you need the ridge to extend more poleward along the entire West Coast of North America to have a more profound impact on our weather for snow lovers.

Les we are almost on the same page here and that is what I mentioned how it may be easier for the ridge to expand towards the poles because your not overcoming a deep trough in the southwest. My major concern and again we do see this in the summer where the heat in the southwest expands northeast overtime and can lead to a hot summer. If you have that same pattern in the winter and the ridge expands eastward this can keep clippers further north and east of us plus does it keep the stj well east of us and the east coast becomes the winner in terms of winter storms. Hopefully this shakes out more in the coming weeks but again as weather folks we tend to looks for what can go wrong department at all times lol.

Normally with a weak La Nina we tend to be on the wet side but this thorn in the side could play a role. I really don't know but its something I will continue to monitor over the next few weeks. This ridge is also hurting snowfall in the rockies big time and sure some of the ski resorts which usually get big turnouts for the Thanksgiving Holiday are having some issues.

[tron777]

Tim.... the SW ridge is okay but we really need to see a ridge extend further to the north all the way up into Alaska. You really need a +PNA / -EPO combo. The ridge would extend along the entire West Coast of North America. That creates cross polar flow and buckles the jet enough to deliver cold into the Eastern US. If the ridge is only over the SW US, then you don't really get the arctic air for storm systems to tap into. It's okay to have a SW ridge, I mean it is better then a trough of course but a SW ridge only is flat. You still get the Pacific Jet to roll into SW Canada and NW US. The cold we get is more modified in nature and not a true arctic airmass which is needed IMHO for better chances at wintry weather. So in short, a SW ridge is not a bad thing at all, but you need the ridge to extend more poleward along the entire West Coast of North America to have a more profound impact on our weather for snow lovers.

Les we are almost on the same page here and that is what I mentioned how it may be easier for the ridge to expand towards the poles because your not overcoming a deep trough in the southwest. My major concern and again we do see this in the summer where the heat in the southwest expands northeast overtime and can lead to a hot summer. If you have that same pattern in the winter and the ridge expands eastward this can keep clippers further north and east of us plus does it keep the stj well east of us and the east coast becomes the winner in terms of winter storms. Hopefully this shakes out more in the coming weeks but again as weather folks we tend to looks for what can go wrong department at all times lol.

Normally with a weak La Nina we tend to be on the wet side but this thorn in the side could play a role. I really don't know but its something I will continue to monitor over the next few weeks. This ridge is also hurting snowfall in the rockies big time and sure some of the ski resorts which usually get big turnouts for the Thanksgiving Holiday are having some issues.

I get it Tim. If the ridge rolls over then yes. What you are saying is correct and not a good thing. We do not want to see the SW US ridge become a roll over ridge. What we want to see is what I described in my first response. I believe we are both on the same page here, just using different wording, like usual.

[tron777]

Good morning! We get wet tomorrow then all eyes on the clipper. GFS has it finally but too far north. The 0Z Euro did not run so no Euro data this morning. CMC is also north with the snow into Mich. Not good trends on the overnight models for this one. We shall see. It's still early in the game. We warm up next week as we kick off December. A front looks to move thru around the 5th stopping the warm spell. Then, the question is... do we get more favorable yet for wintery weather or do we wait until mid month?

[tpweather]

Good morning! We get wet tomorrow then all eyes on the clipper. GFS has it finally but too far north. The 0Z Euro did not run so no Euro data this morning. CMC is also north with the snow into Mich. Not good trends on the overnight models for this one. We shall see. It's still early in the game. We warm up next week as we kick off December. A front looks to move thru around the 5th stopping the warm spell. Then, the question is... do we get more favorable yet for wintery weather or do we wait until mid month?

Good Morning Les and wonderful post and you got everything covered. The position of the clipper really will be determined by the system that moves through here on Thursday and will it sort of stop in northeast Canada. The further east it stalls the further north and east for the clipper. We are just doing the old rinse and repeat cycle and with the mjo also being stalled in phase 4 and 5 this is what you expect. The Aussies believe that will change shortly so lets hope their knowledge of the mjo is correct and in many ways it means more to them because it happens in their spring and early summer and they need to know how much rainfall for the early growing season though many areas are subtropical in nature so growing season never ends but slows down except in the south where the growing season is truly a growing season.

The coldest temps in the NH that I can find is around -50 in northern Siberia and northern Canada. That is normal for this time of year. Alaska has been cold but seasonal cold for them but will they get colder early next week and the answer is yes but will it stay that cold. Getting to minus 30 looks possible but if that is the coldest they reach and temps start to rise that is a good sign for us in December. Sometimes you will see that much of interior Alaska can get into that -40 - -50 range in early December and we know cold dense air can be hard to budge. Even if their is a pattern change the amount of time for that to happen can be lengthen because of snow and cold. Will be fun to see how quickly the pattern changes and really I thought around the first full week of Dec looks good but tell you the truth the later in Dec we can get the change the chances of it being a true arctic outbreak is greater.

We have had some decent cold this fall season without and true arctic outbreaks so that is a plus as surface temps will not be that warm when we finally get some snowfall.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim and thanks! I do believe we turn mild to start December but there are indications (if correct) that we turn colder after the 5th or so. As usual, we shall see how that pans out over the next week of model watching.