Absolute Vorticity

Earl has winds of 100 mph moving NE at 17. The Central ATL waves odds have dropped to 40% and the African wave has also dropped to 20%.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:29 am Earl has winds of 100 mph moving NE at 17. The Central ATL waves odds have dropped to 40% and the African wave has also dropped to 20%.

Les we had that uptick while the mjo was in phase 2 but since it had come back to the COD and it looks like we are heading to a more quiet period. I would expect one more uptick in later September but this season will end up on the low end of tropical systems.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:29 am Earl has winds of 100 mph moving NE at 17. The Central ATL waves odds have dropped to 40% and the African wave has also dropped to 20%.

Les we had that uptick while the mjo was in phase 2 but since it had come back to the COD and it looks like we are heading to a more quiet period. I would expect one more uptick in later September but this season will end up on the low end of tropical systems.

I was expecting to get Fiona and maybe the G storm too, but sheesh! This season sure has been a pathetic one. That is good news for the CONUS bad news for us weather folk.

Earl has winds of 100 mph this afternoon and picking up speed NE at 22 mph. The other two tropical waves are now down to a 10% chance of development.

Today is the peak of Hurricane season and we stand at 5 named storms. Not much in the near future but most years we will have a second uptick of storms in the Atlantic. Still believe a below normal year in terms of named storms unless they get bored and just start naming clusters of thunderstorms.

Lol, can't wait for all the experts to fall over themselves trying to be the first one with the excuse of what happened to our Hyper-active hurricane season. Personally, I don't think it's any coincidence we've had a dead in the water MJO the last 6 weeks and a dead in the water hurricane season. The brief flare up in phase 2 , was meaningless imo, because it went nowhere, it was basically stationary, before it died, therfore having no influence for any noticeable uptick in tropical activity, other than normal climo

Good Morning and the tropics are still sleepy. I agree somewhat with Bgoney on the mjo and I do believe the several days it spent in phase 2 was enough to at least see some action. If we could have stayed in the COD or phases 4-6 then maybe nothing would have formed. Again we don't know for sure which is correct but we both agree that normal climo would tells us something see be forming no matter what phase. Such a dud in the Atlantic and though the pacific has picked up some they are still behind but they can catch up more quickly as the pacific ocean is so much bigger than the Atlantic and you can get 3-4 storms of a decent size and not take away from the strength.

One system in the Atlantic today and the models having different timings and locations over the next 10 days of where the storm may go. GFS is furthest east and does not affect the mainland USA. The Euro ends up coming up through eastern Florida and the CMC heads towards New Orleans. At this point I have no ideal which is correct if any of them will be correct. Just from what I can tell with the pattern the Euro makes the most sense at this point but we are talking later next week.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 3:19 pm One system in the Atlantic today and the models having different timings and locations over the next 10 days of where the storm may go. GFS is furthest east and does not affect the mainland USA. The Euro ends up coming up through eastern Florida and the CMC heads towards New Orleans. At this point I have no ideal which is correct if any of them will be correct. Just from what I can tell with the pattern the Euro makes the most sense at this point but we are talking later next week.

Just a update and the Gfs is still on the same path with the tropical system and the CMC has switched to the gfs point of view. Still waiting on the afternoon Euro. The pattern never seem to fit a path into New Orleans and again the CMC is not the best tropical model. My guess the Euro will be similar to yesterday which is really not that far off from the gfs. If this holds true then cooler air is not doubt headed this way and I can't wait. Again the Atlantic tropical season is going to be a bust for most forecasters this season.

Just want to add that the huge storm in the pacific should also have some downstream affects as well. Throwing very mild and wet weather that far north should help in pushing what cold air is near the poles south and I believe models will see that in the near future and that is why in about 10 days or so we could see a nice push of cool air headed this way.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 1:22 pm Just want to add that the huge storm in the pacific should also have some downstream affects as well. Throwing very mild and wet weather that far north should help in pushing what cold air is near the poles south and I believe models will see that in the near future and that is why in about 10 days or so we could see a nice push of cool air headed this way.

Euro is in and this model has joined the other two in pushing the system well out to sea. So if this holds up the gfs will have been correct and that is usually the case in the hurricane season.

A famous hippo at the Cincy Zoo has a storm named after her. Her bro Fritz is probably a bit jealous.

Fiona has been the talk of the town with massive flooding on Puerto Rico as well as the collapse of the power grid (Thanks to Maria 5 years earlier weakening it severely). She has winds of 90 mph this morning moving NW at 8. A Cat 2 or 3 is possible but she will recurve back out to sea and not impact the CONUS.

Fiona strengthening as expected.

Fiona is a major hurricane this morning with winds of 115 mph. Bermuda maybe impacted by this one after it lashes the Turks and Cacaos. A Cat 4 is expected (140 mph winds) before weakening as it rockets to the NE later on down the road.

Meanwhile, a wave in the N ATL out in no man's land may get a name with an 80% chance. Of more immediate concern is a wave in the S ATL approaching the S Islands. A 50% chance in the next 5 days. It is this system that models have in the Gulf in early October. So the tropics are far from over folks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:59 am Fiona is a major hurricane this morning with winds of 115 mph. Bermuda maybe impacted by this one after it lashes the Turks and Cacaos. A Cat 4 is expected (140 mph winds) before weakening as it rockets to the NE later on down the road.

Meanwhile, a wave in the N ATL out in no man's land may get a name with an 80% chance. Of more immediate concern is a wave in the S ATL approaching the S Islands. A 50% chance in the next 5 days. It is this system that models have in the Gulf in early October. So the tropics are far from over folks.

Good Morning Les and after we had the first surge in early September when the mjo was in phase 2 we talked about a break before another uptick later in the month. So the forecast is working out perfect. So we are on the 6th named storm of the season. Most forecast were calling for around 14 or so named storms with 3 major hurricanes. Not going to be easy to hit 14 even with another surge. Concerning Puerto Rico and they have not updated the grid down there enough to handle these type of storms.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:09 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:59 am Fiona is a major hurricane this morning with winds of 115 mph. Bermuda maybe impacted by this one after it lashes the Turks and Cacaos. A Cat 4 is expected (140 mph winds) before weakening as it rockets to the NE later on down the road.

Meanwhile, a wave in the N ATL out in no man's land may get a name with an 80% chance. Of more immediate concern is a wave in the S ATL approaching the S Islands. A 50% chance in the next 5 days. It is this system that models have in the Gulf in early October. So the tropics are far from over folks.

Good Morning Les and after we had the first surge in early September when the mjo was in phase 2 we talked about a break before another uptick later in the month. So the forecast is working out perfect. So we are on the 6th named storm of the season. Most forecast were calling for around 14 or so named storms with 3 major hurricanes. Not going to be easy to hit 14 even with another surge. Concerning Puerto Rico and they have not updated the grid down there enough to handle these type of storms.

Good morning Tim! This is a good thing, seeing an uptick for the Atlantic Basin ACE (not so good for the folks impacted of course). Watching to see if there is a correlation with triple dip Nina's... busy tropics in October then the ensuing winter. Will save this talk for the winter thread. Anyway, MJO is on the COD right now if I recall, and it might come out weakly 4 - 5-, 6 in October. So right now if this pans out, the MJO is not really a driver for the next 2 weeks. But there is always an uptick in October before chances drop off significantly in November (although not unheard of it all to see Nov storms) I think this season shuts down after middle October anyway but it'll stay busy until then.

TD 8 is now born in the N ATL:

Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 20 2022

...EIGHTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 45.7W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of the system.


The Southern wave's odds have increased to 40 / 70 as of 11am.

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Fiona has winds of 130 moving N at 8. Gaston has winds of 65 mph moving NE at 16 and won't bother anyone. The wave approaching the S Islands now has an 80% chance in the next 5 days. We also have two new waves coming off of Africa. A 20% and 50% chance to develop respectively.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:36 am Fiona has winds of 130 moving N at 8. Gaston has winds of 65 mph moving NE at 16 and won't bother anyone. The wave approaching the S Islands now has an 80% chance in the next 5 days. We also have two new waves coming off of Africa. A 20% and 50% chance to develop respectively.

Lots of mets are really latching onto that S Islands wave as a big player in the Gulf for next week. We shall see of course, but it is the peak of the season now so nothing unusual. Loooong ways off, but GFS currently has the system bombing out in the east central gulf then making landfall next Friday in the panhandle of FL (965 mb). Euro has major hurricane (954 mb) hitting near Naples FL Thursday morning. These tracks will change of course, but both models hint at something impactful along the eastern Gulf coast late next week.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:36 am Fiona has winds of 130 moving N at 8. Gaston has winds of 65 mph moving NE at 16 and won't bother anyone. The wave approaching the S Islands now has an 80% chance in the next 5 days. We also have two new waves coming off of Africa. A 20% and 50% chance to develop respectively.

Lots of mets are really latching onto that S Islands wave as a big player in the Gulf for next week. We shall see of course, but it is the peak of the season now so nothing unusual. Loooong ways off, but GFS currently has the system bombing out in the east central gulf then making landfall next Friday in the panhandle of FL (965 mb). Euro has major hurricane (954 mb) hitting near Naples FL Thursday morning. These tracks will change of course, but both models hint at something impactful along the eastern Gulf coast late next week.

I agree Mike and it is that wave that is concerning to me. It should become Hermine in time. Odds are now up to 70 / 90 as of 11am.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:36 am Fiona has winds of 130 moving N at 8. Gaston has winds of 65 mph moving NE at 16 and won't bother anyone. The wave approaching the S Islands now has an 80% chance in the next 5 days. We also have two new waves coming off of Africa. A 20% and 50% chance to develop respectively.

Lots of mets are really latching onto that S Islands wave as a big player in the Gulf for next week. We shall see of course, but it is the peak of the season now so nothing unusual. Loooong ways off, but GFS currently has the system bombing out in the east central gulf then making landfall next Friday in the panhandle of FL (965 mb). Euro has major hurricane (954 mb) hitting near Naples FL Thursday morning. These tracks will change of course, but both models hint at something impactful along the eastern Gulf coast late next week.

I have some friends, a former pastor of mine and his wife and also their daughter and her family from Hamilton, OH days who reside in Tampa.

EU ensembles early look, more east than GFS, but everything on the table atm

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