Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion 2024

Post by **tron777** » Thu Apr 25, 2024 8:40 am

Hello all....

With an El Nino to La Nina transition and above avg SST's in the MDR (Main Development Region) of the ATL basin.... it is expected that we will be having a well above avg hurricane season. However.... will the Saharan Dust Layer (SAL) have a thing or two up its sleeve to slow the activity down or at least delay the formation of systems for a while? Something worth watching that is for sure. I have seen a couple of seasonal tropical models (Euro and UKMET) and both seem to be going with above avg tropical activity. As far as the storm tracks go, the models are showing that the SE and East Coasts will be at risk from more West to East moving systems instead of recurving systems like we saw last year, As usual, we shall see! Thoughts?

tpweather · Post by **tpweather** » Mon May 06, 2024 12:30 pm

Good Afternoon and no nothing forming at this point. We have a trough digging into the eastern USA late in the week and next week. This will promote some decent rainfall for Florida but south of there can we get an early tropical system to develop. Again its just when you see these troughs dig rather far south in May sometimes you can get a system to develop or least some added moisture as Florida will become active. The pacific is calm once again and it seems year after year we are seeing less activity in the pacific ocean and you got wonder with the waters being warm in so much of the ocean this is one reason with the lower numbers.

Post by **tron777** » Mon May 06, 2024 2:33 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2024 12:30 pm Good Afternoon and no nothing forming at this point. We have a trough digging into the eastern USA late in the week and next week. This will promote some decent rainfall for Florida but south of there can we get an early tropical system to develop. Again its just when you see these troughs dig rather far south in May sometimes you can get a system to develop or least some added moisture as Florida will become active. The pacific is calm once again and it seems year after year we are seeing less activity in the pacific ocean and you got wonder with the waters being warm in so much of the ocean this is one reason with the lower numbers.

IMO wind shear is the killer for t-storm development and convection which is needed for tropical development. The upper level winds over the Pacific Basin have not been good for tropical development. If the developing La Nina has an influence, the Pacific should have lower activity as well this year. As far as the Atlantic basin goes, La Nina, Saharan dust etc, will [play a role. The warmer then normal SST's are most certainly there which will can help if the other factors are working correctly.