Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 6:11 pm Wow . Didn’t see that coming

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 6:17 pm Oh and I felt every bit of that record high mowing this afternoon.

mikeyp wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 6:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 6:17 pm Oh and I felt every bit of that record high mowing this afternoon.

Hahahahaha same here!!!

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 6:33 am High res guidance sends us back into the middle and upper 80s today. Clouds and some areas of storms will probably inhibit this from happening. Should do lower 80s though.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 7:02 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 6:33 am High res guidance sends us back into the middle and upper 80s today. Clouds and some areas of storms will probably inhibit this from happening. Should do lower 80s though.

It wouldn't shock me. The rain chances aren't very high today. I think we see isolated activity until the boundary comes back north as a warm front later tonight / early Wed morning. Then, we'll see how much junk convection / debris clouds we see to screw up the severe threat for tomorrow.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 7:49 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 7:02 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 6:33 am High res guidance sends us back into the middle and upper 80s today. Clouds and some areas of storms will probably inhibit this from happening. Should do lower 80s though.

It wouldn't shock me. The rain chances aren't very high today. I think we see isolated activity until the boundary comes back north as a warm front later tonight / early Wed morning. Then, we'll see how much junk convection / debris clouds we see to screw up the severe threat for tomorrow.

I don’t think it’s really about morning mess anymore but rather that the low is weakening so best action will be north closer to the center (best lift). Timing is also off which favors areas north and especially northeast. Haven’t really liked the setup much since I’ve been watching it over the past week and as we continue to get closer it continues to look less and less impressive. Hence why I dropped the 15% risk tomorrow and have 5% to cover an isolated severe threat.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:27 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 7:49 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 7:02 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 6:33 am High res guidance sends us back into the middle and upper 80s today. Clouds and some areas of storms will probably inhibit this from happening. Should do lower 80s though.

It wouldn't shock me. The rain chances aren't very high today. I think we see isolated activity until the boundary comes back north as a warm front later tonight / early Wed morning. Then, we'll see how much junk convection / debris clouds we see to screw up the severe threat for tomorrow.

I don’t think it’s really about morning mess anymore but rather that the low is weakening so best action will be north closer to the center (best lift). Timing is also off which favors areas north and especially northeast. Haven’t really liked the setup much since I’ve been watching it over the past week and as we continue to get closer it continues to look less and less impressive. Hence why I dropped the 15% risk tomorrow and have 5% to cover an isolated severe threat.

Speaking of the SPC, not sure why their convective outlooks continue to be overdone. ILN even mentioned that they felt that the marginal risk for today is even overdone. They mentioned it in their morning AFD.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 9:05 am That’s why I’m doing my own now lol! They seem to have lost their conservative approach and I want to get back to that. So I’m doing my own now. So far have had a positive reception from folks on my page.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:47 pm Looks like SPC read my post! Their new outlook matches mine to a T. Lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 2:02 pm Good Afternoon and unlike yesterday dew points have increased and this will keep the temps from rising like yesterday when the dew points fell in the afternoon. Concerning wet weather and sure we can get a shower or two this afternoon and early evening just because we have added moisture and small piece of energy passing the region.

Still expect a nice round early Wednesday morning and again some storms could get strong but not seeing any widespread severe outbreak at all. Late Wednesday and interesting set up as moisture outruns energy and does it catch up in time to form some storms. I wish I knew the answer and most likely some storms will try to fire but not expecting severe weather.

Thursday is more and more likely the wettest day of the week with a nice piece of energy hanging onto the front that stalls south of here and with somewhat cooler air rain can flow over the somewhat cooler region and you can get a nice steady rain for several hours. Again does not look severe as the system is rather weak and also weakening as it heads east.

So in terms of rainfall through Friday and I am going .5-1.0 and if you get under a thunderstorm we know those totals can exceed a inch with no problem.

A very nice spring in terms of rainfall for many in the central and eastern USA and though some regions still have some drought it has improved which is always good heading into summer