March 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Welcome to Met Spring as the month of March begins this coming Friday. Still looking at some light rain on Friday but that will set us up for a nice weekend, esp Sunday! 70 on Sun and 70+ for early next week. Our first true significant system for March is still looking to come on around the 4th or so with above avg temps overall and above normal rain. The pattern looks to turn more active for early in the month which is needed. Does it come at a price with regards to severe wx? Stay tuned... Also, do we get one more cool snap later on in the month? Again, stay tuned...

[Bgoney]

So much for the Hype-profile National big boys predictions of relentless winter cold engulfing the whole lower 48 for Feb15 to March 15th . The usual suspects, for which I’m forever befuddled why people still lean on their every word.

[tron777]

So much for the Hype-profile National big boys predictions of relentless winter cold engulfing the whole lower 48 for Feb15 to March 15th . The usual suspects, for which I’m forever befuddled why people still lean on their every word.

When the MJO stalled in Phase 7 then I knew that call was in trouble so I bailed on it. It's continued to stall inside of the COD lol We'll have to see where it re-emerges down the road. Likely in Phase 3 or 4. If its Phase 3 then we should get one last shot of cold air later this month. If it's Phase 4 then the warm hits will keep on coming. That is kind of how I am playing it right now.

[tpweather]

So much for the Hype-profile National big boys predictions of relentless winter cold engulfing the whole lower 48 for Feb15 to March 15th . The usual suspects, for which I’m forever befuddled why people still lean on their every word.

I agree and it works both ways as each side whether its a cold bias or warm bias will no doubt have their busts. When I do a forecast its never looking at anyone's post because that is just not how you should do forecasting. The mjo became a non-factor and just sits in the COD and that is one mistake I made and thought it would continue into the colder phases of 1-3. The cold did come over to this side of the planet but the pna went negative and that is something we have not seen much of over the past several years so the cold stayed mainly in Canada and the far eastern part of the USA. I had about 25p/c of the eastern USA in a colder pattern and ended up more like 3-5 p/c and not nearly as cold as well.

My guess is parts of the northern plains and great lakes will end up 15p/c or more above normal in terms of temps. Almost directly on the other side of the world in parts of China and Mongolia temps will end up 15p/c below normal as Mother Nature will always balance things out. The media is either ignoring that part of the equation or maybe just that dumb.

Has the climate changed over the past 50 years and sure it has and it needs to have changes but saying humans are the main cause or any cause of this is dumbfounding at best. Have anyone seen the power of nature and some folks believe we are able to control the climate and again makes me laugh and cry at the same time. Yes the oceans have warmed and are very warm at the moment but not because of humans.

We are so much in the infant phase of models and take way to much from them. Sure they have some great periods but also many times where they fall flat on their face.

Enough of the rant for today and will head back to the other topics which today includes some severe weather possible.

[tpweather]

So much for the Hype-profile National big boys predictions of relentless winter cold engulfing the whole lower 48 for Feb15 to March 15th . The usual suspects, for which I’m forever befuddled why people still lean on their every word.

When the MJO stalled in Phase 7 then I knew that call was in trouble so I bailed on it. It's continued to stall inside of the COD lol We'll have to see where it re-emerges down the road. Likely in Phase 3 or 4. If its Phase 3 then we should get one last shot of cold air later this month. If it's Phase 4 then the warm hits will keep on coming. That is kind of how I am playing it right now.

Funny you mentioned the mjo Les. The models had blew it for several weeks as it kept stalling it in phase 3-6 and that never happened so I thought this model is doing a terrible job and it was no doubt having problems. Finally got it right in phase 7 so does this mean the model was correct and sure sooner or later it was going to be correct but for such a long period things were happening that the model could not figure out. At the moment we are in the COD and that is one reason we are seeing big swings in the weather and until further notice not even pretending I know where the mjo is going next and my guess the mjo itself has no ideal lol

[tron777]

So much for the Hype-profile National big boys predictions of relentless winter cold engulfing the whole lower 48 for Feb15 to March 15th . The usual suspects, for which I’m forever befuddled why people still lean on their every word.

When the MJO stalled in Phase 7 then I knew that call was in trouble so I bailed on it. It's continued to stall inside of the COD lol We'll have to see where it re-emerges down the road. Likely in Phase 3 or 4. If its Phase 3 then we should get one last shot of cold air later this month. If it's Phase 4 then the warm hits will keep on coming. That is kind of how I am playing it right now.

Funny you mentioned the mjo Les. The models had blew it for several weeks as it kept stalling it in phase 3-6 and that never happened so I thought this model is doing a terrible job and it was no doubt having problems. Finally got it right in phase 7 so does this mean the model was correct and sure sooner or later it was going to be correct but for such a long period things were happening that the model could not figure out. At the moment we are in the COD and that is one reason we are seeing big swings in the weather and until further notice not even pretending I know where the mjo is going next and my guess the mjo itself has no ideal lol

I made the same mistake you did with the MJO. The model biases all season long where to weaken the MJO too quickly and stall it out which never happened until the last week or two. I guess it's a model bias until it isn't. My current thoughts are that it comes out into Phase 3 sometime during the 1st week of March then continues into Phases 4 and 5 as March rolls on. That would mean one last shot of cold air then it's full on spring after that. I am thinking about the March 10-15th period with regards to that cold shot. Then like I said, it's spring time!

[tron777]

Our next storm system will move in Mon afternoon and will end sometime on Tues of next week. Rain and t-storms will again be possible as we start off next week in the 70s and drop into the 60s after that. A secondary front may also come in sometime during the Wed or Thurs of next week period before temps drop back off again after that. So next week also looks active and bears watching for t-storms.

[tron777]

Overnight ENS guidance continues to advertise a -PNA pattern with a trough out West. Ridging continues over Eastern Canada, Hudson's Bay and also over Greenland. A -NAO too but with the AO still positive, no influx of cold air is expected. EPO is also positive. March as a whole looks to be above normal in temps. I'm okay with that, just hope the precip dept can come in near to above normal. With a -PNA that can help. Severe wx threat will be there too. Just hope that with a -NAO some of these fronts will begin to move slower so we can get some more rainfall out of the deal. That is my hope.

[tron777]

Most of the MJO guidance now brings it out of the neutral circle by today then taking a tour thru Phases 3, 4, and 5 thru mid March. As of 2/26, we are still in the COD so wondering if modeling is rushing the MJO coming out of the COD just a bit. I still think one more cool shot of air is possible but otherwise, yeah... we are going to run warmer then avg IMHO overall. Just not seeing much change at all with the Pacific pattern.

[tpweather]

Les the perfect outcome would be 4-5 inches Mar-Jun. We know in the summer sometimes you may be above normal but that can happen because 1 or 2 storms brings us heavy rains and then dry the remaining days.

[tpweather]

Les it looks like the ao and nao head towards neutral or slightly negative next week and the pna heads toward neutral. If that plays out we can get several systems to come through but I wonder if the El Nino which is still going on is going to keep the main precip to the south. Hopefully moving into spring the STJ moves northward somewhat and that would be great to see. In March I still want to see the south getting in on some nice rains because when the rains stop there it can get hot in a hurry and we must wait until mid-summer for tropical systems to help out

[tron777]

Les it looks like the ao and nao head towards neutral or slightly negative next week and the pna heads toward neutral. If that plays out we can get several systems to come through but I wonder if the El Nino which is still going on is going to keep the main precip to the south. Hopefully moving into spring the STJ moves northward somewhat and that would be great to see. In March I still want to see the south getting in on some nice rains because when the rains stop there it can get hot in a hurry and we must wait until mid-summer for tropical systems to help out

I saw that from yesterday's GEFS Forecast on the CPC's website. I am leaving in a risk of one last cold shot of air as a result, but it'll be in and out quickly as we have been seeing.

[tpweather]

Les it looks like the ao and nao head towards neutral or slightly negative next week and the pna heads toward neutral. If that plays out we can get several systems to come through but I wonder if the El Nino which is still going on is going to keep the main precip to the south. Hopefully moving into spring the STJ moves northward somewhat and that would be great to see. In March I still want to see the south getting in on some nice rains because when the rains stop there it can get hot in a hurry and we must wait until mid-summer for tropical systems to help out

I saw that from yesterday's GEFS Forecast on the CPC's website. I am leaving in a risk of one last cold shot of air as a result, but it'll be in and out quickly as we have been seeing.

With much of Canada getting cold over the past 2 weeks we should be able to tap into some cold air like we see with this system. Of course we need a storm system or two headed through the central plains and upper midwest to help grab the cold air. I believe 2 shots of colder air is possible but I agree as well those will be in and out quickly though should at least temper the warmth somewhat in March. So far I see March as a normal month in terms of precip and temps

[tron777]

Les it looks like the ao and nao head towards neutral or slightly negative next week and the pna heads toward neutral. If that plays out we can get several systems to come through but I wonder if the El Nino which is still going on is going to keep the main precip to the south. Hopefully moving into spring the STJ moves northward somewhat and that would be great to see. In March I still want to see the south getting in on some nice rains because when the rains stop there it can get hot in a hurry and we must wait until mid-summer for tropical systems to help out

I saw that from yesterday's GEFS Forecast on the CPC's website. I am leaving in a risk of one last cold shot of air as a result, but it'll be in and out quickly as we have been seeing.

With much of Canada getting cold over the past 2 weeks we should be able to tap into some cold air like we see with this system. Of course we need a storm system or two headed through the central plains and upper midwest to help grab the cold air. I believe 2 shots of colder air is possible but I agree as well those will be in and out quickly though should at least temper the warmth somewhat in March. So far I see March as a normal month in terms of precip and temps

I will differ with you by going above normal in temps. I am on board with a cool shot of air but I don't think it will be sustainable. Going near normal for precip, as you are, but I am hoping we can get into the above avg range for a change.

[Trevor]

There is some talk about possible drought this summer so I figured I would post some of the long range models.

1st image is the GEFS extended.
2nd image is the Euro Weeklies.
3rd image is the Euro Seasonal which takes us through August.

[Trevor]

Here's the control run of the CFS seasonal model which takes us through the end of October.

[Trevor]

I'm not sold on a big time drought at this time. I will dive deeper into my long range thoughts over the next couple of days.

[tron777]

Hopefully some of the guidance is right... but if you blend all of the above, it could go either way this far out. If we get an active tropical season though, depending on storm track, that could help. As usual, we'll see. A lot of time in La Nina summers, you'll get a monster Bermuda high which can help turn storms into the Gulf or up along the East Coast.

Trev... I am not forecasting it yet, but it is worth mentioning the possibility since we have been below normal on rainfall for months now. That and the impending La Nina too also makes it worth discussing.

[tpweather]

Just looking at stats from the NWS for CVG. No doubt last year was dry and even more so since we started out wet in the winter. Ended up about 6 inches below normal. What I find funny is the stats they lay out. It shows the most precip in one year since records started was over 73 inches in 2011 and that is fine. The bad part of the stats is the lowest recorded is 7.40 inches in wait for it 2024. Come on folks you can come up with a better input than that shows.

[tron777]

Just looking at stats from the NWS for CVG. No doubt last year was dry and even more so since we started out wet in the winter. Ended up about 6 inches below normal. What I find funny is the stats they lay out. It shows the most precip in one year since records started was over 73 inches in 2011 and that is fine. The bad part of the stats is the lowest recorded is 7.40 inches in wait for it 2024. Come on folks you can come up with a better input than that shows.

Of course 2024 will be low since we just started the year out basically. Well ok, 2 months under our belt. I would throw out the lowest recorded stat at this time and we'll see where we do end up later on in the year. I do remember 2011 though. An extremely wet year no doubt. We had just come off of a nice winter (Mod Nina) too.

[Trevor]

Our next threat for strong storms to watch may be late Monday. The surface low tracks well to the north (like way up in Canada lol) so I think we'd probably be looking at a marginal risk type deal. Something to watch. The GFS does try to pop a secondary surface low further south and if that were to happen and it became a bit stronger, the threat would go up of course.

[tron777]

Our next threat for strong storms to watch may be late Monday. The surface low tracks well to the north (like way up in Canada lol) so I think we'd probably be looking at a marginal risk type deal. Something to watch. The GFS does try to pop a secondary surface low further south and if that were to happen and it became a bit stronger, the threat would go up of course.

The 0Z Euro stalls the front out over the OV and a Gulf Low moves up the front along the Eastern side of the Apps bringing some rain into the region, heaviest for Eastern counties. Quite a few different looks on this system this far out in time. If this idea is correct though, it will be mild and wet at times next week.

[tpweather]

Our next threat for strong storms to watch may be late Monday. The surface low tracks well to the north (like way up in Canada lol) so I think we'd probably be looking at a marginal risk type deal. Something to watch. The GFS does try to pop a secondary surface low further south and if that were to happen and it became a bit stronger, the threat would go up of course.

The 0Z Euro stalls the front out over the OV and a Gulf Low moves up the front along the Eastern side of the Apps bringing some rain into the region, heaviest for Eastern counties. Quite a few different looks on this system this far out in time. If this idea is correct though, it will be mild and wet at times next week.

Will be watching the nao for sure and hopefully it heads to negative and this can slow down systems plus like the Euro shows a stalling of the front somewhere in the Ohio or Tn valley. Still several days away but will no doubt enjoy the weekend as milder comes back in the picture with Sunday being similar to this past Monday. As warm air moves in on Friday this could develop some light rain and even without any rain does not look great on Friday though a bit warmer than Thursday. How cold do we get tonight and probably in the low 20's

[tron777]

This Friday's little system (On 3/1) will offer up some light rain with very light amounts expected. All it will do is delay the next warm surge by a day.

[tpweather]

This Friday's little system (On 3/1) will offer up some light rain with very light amounts expected. All it will do is delay the next warm surge by a day.

Very typical system around here during the early part of spring