Absolute Vorticity

dce wrote: ↑Tue Sep 26, 2023 6:26 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2023 1:05 pm Missed the low this morning by 2 degrees and need the sun to come out or I will be missing my high temp. These contests are fun but only takes a day of more clouds to miss the temps or just the timing of a front especially in the winter.

Yes, in the winter it is really easy to miss by 10-15 degrees on a particular guess. Especially when you are making guesses for a Thursday and Friday which are 4-5 days out. As you know, wild temperature swings can occur along with the models not doing very well in the medium range at times, especially in the winter.

Hey Doug,

During the winter esp I have trouble at times, too, bro. I remember last year's pre Christmas blizzard and then that week with lows of 0 to the minus digits and trying to score on those outcomes!

That storm caused a gust that sent my curbside trash cart "flying" a medium distance down the road in the Friday predawn of trash day, fortunately our side of the road, and it landed half off the grassy area between the sidewalk and road and partially into the road. A wheel broke off the cart and ended buried in the drifting snow. Through the garage door window I saw an ODOT truck plow blade go by shortly before I got out there in my PJs and bundled up and must have sheered off that wheel is all I can figure. Otherwise I wouldn't think that the impact of the crashing cart would have torn off a strong wheel like that at the get-go. My hearing thankfully is good because I wouldn't have known about the launched cart if not for a loud thud sound. It was "fun" getting that cart back to the garage to park it after I psyched myself up. We found the wheel a few days later on the same side of the road.

dce wrote: ↑Sun Sep 24, 2023 2:22 pm KDAY 9/25 - 9/29:

Mon: -2 73/63 -1

Tues: -2 80/59 Nailed!

Wed: -2 74/62 Nailed!

Thur: -1 75/61 Nailed!

Fri: -1 78/60 Nailed again!

Nailed 4 lows in a row!

Congrats on your HITTING THE JACKPOT this week bro!!

Thankfully I was able to save face by having nailed the highs on Wed and Thurs!

KDAY 10/2 - 10/6:

Mon: +4 83/59 -2

Tues: +4 83/60 Nailed!

Wed: +5 82/58 +4

Thur: Hit it! 75/59 +4

Fri: +6 66/54 -8

I think there is a high probability of a big bust on Thursday and Friday depending on the timing of the cold front.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Oct 01, 2023 12:47 am

dce wrote: ↑Sun Sep 24, 2023 2:22 pm KDAY 9/25 - 9/29:

Mon: -2 73/63 -1

Tues: -2 80/59 Nailed!

Wed: -2 74/62 Nailed!

Thur: -1 75/61 Nailed!

Fri: -1 78/60 Nailed again!

Nailed 4 lows in a row!

Congrats on your HITTING THE JACKPOT this week bro!!

Thankfully I was able to save face by having nailed the highs on Wed and Thurs!

Pretty sure I've not hit the low or the high 4 days in a row before.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Sep 24, 2023 4:53 pm Thought I would give this a shot.

KCVG 9/25-9/29

Mon: 81/57 79/59 so I am 4 degrees off

Tues: 81/61 82/59 so I am 3 degrees off

Wed: 72/62 75/62 so I am 3 degrees off

Thurs: 73/63 so I am 2 degrees off

Fri: 76/57 75/56 so I am dead even

For the week ended up 1.2 degrees off for an average. Good and Bad is I started out being off a few degrees and getting better as the week went on.

Congrats Tim and very nice for a first try!

dce wrote: ↑Sun Oct 01, 2023 8:59 am KDAY 10/2 - 10/6:

Mon: +4 83/59 -2

Tues: +4 83/60 Nailed!

Wed: +5 82/58 +4

Thur: Hit it! 75/59 +4

Fri: +6 66/54 +2

I think there is a high probability of a big bust on Thursday and Friday depending on the timing of the cold front.

Congrats on having nailed the Tues low and Thur high, bro!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Oct 07, 2023 5:58 am

dce wrote: ↑Sun Oct 01, 2023 8:59 am KDAY 10/2 - 10/6:

Mon: +4 83/59 -2

Tues: +4 83/60 Nailed!

Wed: +5 82/58 +4

Thur: Hit it! 75/59 +4

Fri: +6 66/54 +2

I think there is a high probability of a big bust on Thursday and Friday depending on the timing of the cold front.

Congrats on having nailed the Tues low and Thur high, bro!

Thank you Eric. We are now getting into the cooler part of the year. Bigger busts are likely to occur. Nice to nail em when you can.

KDAY 10/9 - 10/13:

Mon: +3 59/40 +4

Tues: +2 62/38 Nailed!

Wed: +4 65/39 Nailed!

Thur: +2 75/52 -1

Fri: +10 66/56 -6


Not sure what it is Eric? Been nailing the lows!

dce wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:59 am KDAY 10/9 - 10/13:

Mon: +3 59/40 +4

Tues: +2 62/38 Nailed!

Wed: +4 65/39 Nailed!

Thur: +2 75/52 -1

Fri: +10 66/56 -6


Not sure what it is Eric? Been nailing the lows!

In our defense, the timing of these fronts are tough. The medium range models had the front and upper low a little sooner than reality.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:59 am KDAY 10/9 - 10/13:

Mon: +3 59/40 +4

Tues: +2 62/38 Nailed!

Wed: +4 65/39 Nailed!

Thur: +2 75/52 -1

Fri: +10 66/56 -6


Not sure what it is Eric? Been nailing the lows!

Congrats Doug!

I've enjoyed these few days of "Indian Summer" and it'll be back to reality starting tomorrow (Sat)!

KDAY 10/16-10/20:

Mon: -1 56/46 +1

Tues: -3 59/41 +5

Wed: -1 64/43 -4

Thur: -5 67/52 -3

Fri: Nailed one! 56/45 +4

dce wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 9:07 pm KDAY 10/16-10/20:

Mon: -1 56/46 +1

Tues: -3 59/41 +5

Wed: -1 64/43 -4

Thur: -5 67/52 -3

Fri: 56/45

Congrats Doug on having nailed the Fri high!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 7:24 am

dce wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 9:07 pm KDAY 10/16-10/20:

Mon: -1 56/46 +1

Tues: -3 59/41 +5

Wed: -1 64/43 -4

Thur: -5 67/52 -3

Fri: 56/45

Congrats Doug on having nailed the Fri high!

At least one of us finally nailed something this week.

KDAY 10/23 - 10/27:

Mon: +5 60/34 Got it!

Tues: +6 72/42 +6

Wed: -2 72/54 +8

Thur: -1 76/58 +2

Fri: +1 72/63 Nailed!

dce wrote: ↑Sun Oct 22, 2023 9:56 pm KDAY 10/23 - 10/27:

Mon: +5 60/34 Got it!

Tues: +6 72/42 +6

Wed: -2 72/54 +8

Thur: -1 76/58 +2

Fri: +1 72/63 Nailed!

Congrats on nailing Mon and Fri, bro!

KDAY 11/6 - 11/10:

Mon: +3 69/39 +1

Tues: Nailed! 66/54 -8

Wed: +5 72/48 -4

Thur: +10 60/49 -3

Fri: +12 49/37 -1

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2023 9:08 am KDAY week of 11/6/23 - 11/10/23

Mon: 68/38

Election Day: 66/54

Wed: 70/46

Thurs: 60/52

Fri: 52/38

Good job on nailing the Tuesday high!

KDAY 11/13 - 11/17:

Mon: +2 61/35 Nailed!

Tues: +5 55/29 +4

Wed: +1 64/34 Nailed it!

Thur: +3 65/37 +2

Fri: +4 57/46 -2

dce wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 7:28 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2023 9:08 am KDAY week of 11/6/23 - 11/10/23

Mon: 68/38

Election Day: 66/54

Wed: 70/46

Thurs: 60/52

Fri: 52/38

Good job on nailing the Tuesday high!

Thank you very much Doug and the same to you bro!