Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion 2024

[tron777]

Hello all....

With an El Nino to La Nina transition and above avg SST's in the MDR (Main Development Region) of the ATL basin.... it is expected that we will be having a well above avg hurricane season. However.... will the Saharan Dust Layer (SAL) have a thing or two up its sleeve to slow the activity down or at least delay the formation of systems for a while? Something worth watching that is for sure. I have seen a couple of seasonal tropical models (Euro and UKMET) and both seem to be going with above avg tropical activity. As far as the storm tracks go, the models are showing that the SE and East Coasts will be at risk from more West to East moving systems instead of recurving systems like we saw last year, As usual, we shall see! Thoughts?

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and no nothing forming at this point. We have a trough digging into the eastern USA late in the week and next week. This will promote some decent rainfall for Florida but south of there can we get an early tropical system to develop. Again its just when you see these troughs dig rather far south in May sometimes you can get a system to develop or least some added moisture as Florida will become active. The pacific is calm once again and it seems year after year we are seeing less activity in the pacific ocean and you got wonder with the waters being warm in so much of the ocean this is one reason with the lower numbers.

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and no nothing forming at this point. We have a trough digging into the eastern USA late in the week and next week. This will promote some decent rainfall for Florida but south of there can we get an early tropical system to develop. Again its just when you see these troughs dig rather far south in May sometimes you can get a system to develop or least some added moisture as Florida will become active. The pacific is calm once again and it seems year after year we are seeing less activity in the pacific ocean and you got wonder with the waters being warm in so much of the ocean this is one reason with the lower numbers.

IMO wind shear is the killer for t-storm development and convection which is needed for tropical development. The upper level winds over the Pacific Basin have not been good for tropical development. If the developing La Nina has an influence, the Pacific should have lower activity as well this year. As far as the Atlantic basin goes, La Nina, Saharan dust etc, will [play a role. The warmer then normal SST's are most certainly there which will can help if the other factors are working correctly.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane season started June 1st. Most of the experts are predicting an above normal amount of tropical systems. The waters are no doubt very warm and already starting to see the models showing some activity south of Cuba in about 10 days. Normally we get a few systems early in June but of course the main course is in August and September .

Concerning the amount of tropical systems and we know they love to name storms even if the criteria is really not meant. So yes we may get above the normal amount of systems but we must weigh each system and does it really need to be named.

[tron777]

Here are the list of names for the 2024 season:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

NOAA's call:

17-25 named storms
8-13 of those becoming hurricanes
4-7 of those becoming major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher)

The folks at Colorado State are going with:

23 named storms
11 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

ACE of 210

Remember ACE stands for Accumulated Cyclone Energy and you can gauge the season by ACE. A storm will get a low ACE score if it is weak in intensity or doesn't last very long. The stronger the storm and the longer it lasts, the higher the ACE score. The avg ACE for the Atlantic basin for the season is 123.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and the ACE is probably a better way to guage the energy. Really at the end of the day how many systems caused damage is the main concern. The heavy rains are many times beneficial so not all systems are bad. Still believe they name to many but at the end of the day the lives that are lost really matter the most.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and the ACE is probably a better way to guage the energy. Really at the end of the day how many systems caused damage is the main concern. The heavy rains are many times beneficial so not all systems are bad. Still believe they name to many but at the end of the day the lives that are lost really matter the most.

Totally agree Tim. You can have an active season but if none of them make landfall or hit high population centers, then nobody will remember the season. Even in an inactive season like 1992 was, all it takes is 1 storm to make it memorable. In that season it was Hurricane Andrew.