February 2024 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

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[dce]

Trev its great to have different outlooks. I know Les and I once in awhile have different opinions on the certain storms or longer term outlooks and its funny how much of the time the weather is between those two outcomes. That may be the case here as well.

Tim, I like you more bullish call on a change to a true winter like pattern. I don't know what more you could ask for in the month of February even if it is the last half of the month. A -AO, -NAO, -EPO, +PNA, possible phase 8 MJO. If that doesn't suggest a good possibility of winter weather around here I don't know what does. Even somewhat of a chance for another PV split. February is climatologically our second best month for snowfall. We even average between 4-5 inches of snow for March. As we all have experienced over the last couple of years, even a good pattern can fail. This year has been disappointing so far, but at least we have things lining up to give us at least a chance. I'll take my chances with this pattern and let it roll!

[Bgoney]

Near Mammoth Lakes CA, sweet dreams

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[dce]

Near Mammoth Lakes CA, sweet dreams



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I love how they word that. Snow showers. As if there are going to be breaks in the precipitation. Can't they just say snow?

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 49 and both DAY / CMH 47 today.

[Trevor]

Here are the latest GFS and Euro Ensembles. The expected turn to cooler is shown well on both models around the time we have been discussing. I like the numbers these models show. Nothing super cold, but rather slightly below average. It would take a stronger storm to tap into colder air to supply it to us. Areas north and west where our temperatures will be coming from are not cold, so that should keep things in check. Again climo is fighting against anything super cold as well. If temps to our west and north were colder I would be a bit more excited. But alas we are in a Nino so that's not really all that easy to achieve except for rouge cold blasts like we saw in January in an overall warm winter. A couple of days with highs in the 20s is not out of the realm of possibilities of course, but that'd most likely be right after cold fronts and won't last long. But I'm not even sure we will see highs that cold to be honest. 30s sure, 20s may be tougher.

[Trevor]

00z Euro does give us winter weather weenies some action on the 12/13th. Heavy rains to freezing rain to snow. I still have yet to have my ice storm I predicted in my winter outlook so I would love to see it minus the power outages and impacts of course

The cold air ahead of that system is marginal (hence why we start as rain) so I'm skeptical of this run. Most of our bad ice events happen coming off of an arctic blast which we do not have this time.

[Trevor]

The pattern does support a potential big winter storm(s) across the eastern US but that's about all we have going for us to cash in. We know how hard it is to get that around here as timing and track and all of that has to be just right. That's why we don't see storms like that every year. So yes the potential is there, but it is not high enough for me to be too excited at this juncture, and why I am comfortable saying I think 3.8" will be our single biggest snowfall of the 23/24 season. Anything is possible, though!

[tpweather]

Trev its great to have different outlooks. I know Les and I once in awhile have different opinions on the certain storms or longer term outlooks and its funny how much of the time the weather is between those two outcomes. That may be the case here as well.

Tim, I like you more bullish call on a change to a true winter like pattern. I don't know what more you could ask for in the month of February even if it is the last half of the month. A -AO, -NAO, -EPO, +PNA, possible phase 8 MJO. If that doesn't suggest a good possibility of winter weather around here I don't know what does. Even somewhat of a chance for another PV split. February is climatologically our second best month for snowfall. We even average between 4-5 inches of snow for March. As we all have experienced over the last couple of years, even a good pattern can fail. This year has been disappointing so far, but at least we have things lining up to give us at least a chance. I'll take my chances with this pattern and let it roll!

Hey Doug. The tellies imo are lining up nicely. Do the models fail on tellies and yes as we have seen with the MJO the past month or so. I believe phase 8 is a given and then does it collapse into the COD or continue. I believe it continues on and we see phase 1-3 from around the 12th of Feb- 8th of Mar. Again timing can be off a few days. Those phases are nice for winter weather locally but even more so along the east coast. Longer term models continue to show us as drier than normal during that period and again if we would happen to average 3 inches of precip during that period and we only get 2 it is no doubt drier but how much of that 2 inches is of a winter nature. With all long term forecasts what could cause this to be incorrect and one item is snow cover to the north and west is lacking though the northern plains should get some later this week. Without snow cover temps can rebound quickly in the central plains and push towards us and that is why I believe chances for a ice storm during this period is greater than usual. With the STJ busy during this time the southeast ridge will be flatten and so warming from there is unlikely . I believe by the second week of March the STJ quiets down and then we start to see that early start to spring locally but in the northeast USA it may take awhile longer as I expect plenty of snow cover for them during this period.

No doubt the late January thaw has lasted a good week longer than I expected as the cold build up in Alaska was huge and nothing to move it along but we are seeing storms heading into the southwest part of the state and that should start the movement of the cold.

[Trevor]

Trev its great to have different outlooks. I know Les and I once in awhile have different opinions on the certain storms or longer term outlooks and its funny how much of the time the weather is between those two outcomes. That may be the case here as well.

Tim, I like you more bullish call on a change to a true winter like pattern. I don't know what more you could ask for in the month of February even if it is the last half of the month. A -AO, -NAO, -EPO, +PNA, possible phase 8 MJO. If that doesn't suggest a good possibility of winter weather around here I don't know what does. Even somewhat of a chance for another PV split. February is climatologically our second best month for snowfall. We even average between 4-5 inches of snow for March. As we all have experienced over the last couple of years, even a good pattern can fail. This year has been disappointing so far, but at least we have things lining up to give us at least a chance. I'll take my chances with this pattern and let it roll!

Hey Doug. The tellies imo are lining up nicely. Do the models fail on tellies and yes as we have seen with the MJO the past month or so. I believe phase 8 is a given and then does it collapse into the COD or continue. I believe it continues on and we see phase 1-3 from around the 12th of Feb- 8th of Mar. Again timing can be off a few days. Those phases are nice for winter weather locally but even more so along the east coast. Longer term models continue to show us as drier than normal during that period and again if we would happen to average 3 inches of precip during that period and we only get 2 it is no doubt drier but how much of that 2 inches is of a winter nature. With all long term forecasts what could cause this to be incorrect and one item is snow cover to the north and west is lacking though the northern plains should get some later this week. Without snow cover temps can rebound quickly in the central plains and push towards us and that is why I believe chances for a ice storm during this period is greater than usual. With the STJ busy during this time the southeast ridge will be flatten and so warming from there is unlikely . I believe by the second week of March the STJ quiets down and then we start to see that early start to spring locally but in the northeast USA it may take awhile longer as I expect plenty of snow cover for them during this period.

No doubt the late January thaw has lasted a good week longer than I expected as the cold build up in Alaska was huge and nothing to move it along but we are seeing storms heading into the southwest part of the state and that should start the movement of the cold.

We just simply cannot get sustained cold when the airmass to our west and north will be marginal/above normal. You can thank El Niño for that.

[Bgoney]

Another good match from a 500mb standpoint if we can get the MJO transitioning from 7 into 8 (lag) and mid month forecast for troughiness in the eastern third of lower 48

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[Bgoney]

Meanwhile this week in upper Midwest/plains are going to be some 25-40 degrees above normal . Some of There’s lows are going to be higher than their normal highs . This goes up into southern Canada also

[tpweather]

Meanwhile this week in upper Midwest/plains are going to be some 25-40 degrees above normal . Some of There’s lows are going to be higher than their normal highs . This goes up into southern Canada also

Exactly and parts of Alaska had temps 25-40 degrees below normal. Mother Nature is always balancing things out.

[Trevor]

Write-up on my page re: Feb temps.

[tron777]

We need to see the 12Z Euro long range a few hundred miles further south if it all possible.

[Trevor]

12z GFS valid Feb 20th. If you want snow and wintry weather, this is not going to bring it.

[Trevor]

We need to see the 12Z Euro long range a few hundred miles further south if it all possible.

Yeah 12z also ditched the big ice event with that storm that I was skeptical of on the 00z run. Really hard to get big ice events with no cold air in place beforehand. Like I said earlier, our biggest ice events come when we are coming out of an arctic blast. This setup isn't conducive. 12z run is much more believable with primarily rain and snow as precip types associated with that storm and little in the way of ice.

[Trevor]

12z GFS snow. There's some snow snowfall across the Northern Midwest and Northern Plains but nothing too crazy, and still well below normal for them. Yet another reason we are going to struggle to get really cold. Any air coming from that direction will modify greatly by the time it gets here.

I know some of the tellies look optimal for cold and snow, and if this were January (and not a strong Nino year) I would be much more optimistic. But Met Winter is winding down quickly. Timing is not favorable.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and a very nice day and the wind was not as bad so if felt great. Another 4 days of mild weather though it will turn a bit windy by Thursday before we start to get busy. Trev makes a great point concerning ice storm and most of the time we are coming out of a arctic blast and the precip is able to make it in before the ground temps rise. The second way and one you tend to see in February is back door cold fronts. These occur more often in Feb and Mar and if you get the correct set up and nice ice storm can happen. These tend to be less widespread but are possible and with the way the pattern is shaping up later this month will need to watch this carefully as again models horrible at catching onto this until about 36 hours in advance.

Yes we are heading into the period where the sun angle is higher and climo temps are rising but the cold headed this way for the second half of the month is not shabby at all. Had a nice positive AO for a few weeks and the cold built up in the arctic regions. I believe once again we need models to catch up on how cold this air is as the January outbreak the models were slow but finally figured it out. I expect some snow in the northern plains and upper midwest over the next few weeks as well so there is a pathway that will not be completely without snow.

Watch the PV and will it split or just stretch out like most models are showing. Again I believe the stretching is more likely as it has happened a few time in other parts of the world but we still have a little time left to see exactly what happens.

Btw January we ended up dead even on temps as the last few days of the month we had a cloudy sky at night for several days and the temps dropped very little. Precip wise we were nearly double the normal.

Keeping a snow cover on the ground for several weeks is another problem and that seldom happens past mid-Feb but with a nice system you can see the snow stay on the ground for 3-5 days though concrete surfaces will tend to clear up faster because of the mid-day sun.

I know repeating myself is happening again but the northeast USA will do well with this upcoming pattern and of course we will hear about it on the news because its the northeast. We should end up on the border of cold and really cold later this month before an early start to spring imo.

[Trevor]

Tim I expect Feb to average near normal just like Jan.

Warm first half, cooler second half. You’re much more optimistic about cold late month than I but like I said I hope I’m wrong I would love another bout of winter before spring.

Like I said late Feb deep cold outbreaks rarely work out. Especially in a Nino year. Cold shots for a couple days? Sure! But sustained is not something I expect to see especially that late in the season. Cooler than normal overall second half but nothing too wicked. But we shall see I suppose!

[dce]

I don't know. The 14th-20th look pretty cold to me. Yes, Canada is warm at the moment, but Alaska is very cold. There is a lot of cold air on our side of the globe. It's just bottled up in Alaska at the moment. If we see this blocking develop, just like in January after no cold was to be found in Canada in December, the cold air will quickly be available to pour into the United States. To me it looks like a very similar pattern is setting up to what we saw in December and January. Very mild air in Canada for all of December. Then boom! When the pattern flipped all of a sudden cold air came flooding from the Arctic into Canada and the US. The southern jet remains active because of the El Nino. I like our chances from Feb 14th into March! The last decade we have seen warm Decembers and cool to cold February and Marches. This fits that pattern perfectly. I'm going to side with Tim on this one. Maybe we are wrong and we only get marginally cold air at best. But looking at the ensembles I like our chances. The ensembles have been locked into this for a while now. If these two maps are correct we will be seeing a fairly cold period from at least the 14th to the 20th and possibly beyond.

[Trevor]

I don't know. The 14th-20th look pretty cold to me. Yes, Canada is warm at the moment, but Alaska is very cold. There is a lot of cold air on our side of the globe. It's just bottled up in Alaska at the moment. If we see this blocking develop, just like in January after no cold was to be found in Canada in December, the cold air will quickly be available to pour into the United States. To me it looks like a very similar pattern is setting up to what we saw in December and January. Very mild air in Canada for all of December. Then boom! When the pattern flipped all of a sudden cold air came flooding from the Arctic into Canada and the US. The southern jet remains active because of the El Nino. I like our chances from Feb 14th into March! The last decade we have seen warm Decembers and cool to cold February and Marches. This fits that pattern perfectly. I'm going to side with Tim on this one. Maybe we are wrong and we only get marginally cold air at best. But looking at the ensembles I like our chances. The ensembles have been locked into this for a while now. If these two maps are correct we will be seeing a fairly cold period from at least the 14th to the 20th and possibly beyond.

Remember that our average highs creep up to 45 by mid month so that’s what the departures are based off of. -5 to -10 or so isn’t as cold of a signal in later Feb compared to January. Still expecting some cold days but nothing too out of hand. A couple days in the upper 20s possible but more-so some 30s is what I expect. Cold yes but nothing crazy. 30s and 40s should be common imo.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 56, DAY 54 and CMH 55 today.

[Trevor]

DCE, you posted the GFS ensemble and here is the meteogram for that same run. This illustrates what I am saying. Like I said if this setup was happening in January I would be right there with you guys.

[tron777]

Good morning and one thing most can agree on is that our quiet wx comes to an end by this Friday with rain entering the picture. That lingers into Sat. Then, by late Sun into early next week, another rain showery system drops in. Then, we shall see how the temps look after that to determine if there will be any snow prospects upcoming.