January 2024 Weather Discussion

[Trevor]

Good Afternoon and what you see is what you get this week. Waves of rain over the next 5 days and maybe mix in a little snow this weekend but nothing major. We are trying to move back into the December pattern but not there yet. That pattern looks to come into play next week and the weather becomes rather tame with temps a few degrees above normal and most of the precip south and east of us like we saw in December. Than do we have another bout with the PV and my guess is yes but expecting a more easterly placement which is more common in February . If and when this happens we would be on the western edge but that will work fine as we would also be in a better spot for precip. Again I would say this weekend or early next week longer term models will start to see the changes in regards to the PV. Waiting to wash the car until we get through this weekend though I have it outside trying to get some of the junk off. Still 1-3 inches looks like a good total for the week and flooding is a concern I am not sure how bad this round will be.

I think your lower end of the range needs to be bumped up. Most model guidance shows us getting 1”+ by the end of tomorrow alone.

[tpweather]

Trev I always like to be safe on the low end because with these waves there is the chance somebody misses the heavier amounts each time. I believe the higher side is the way to go but rain totals can be tricky especially if you see training which means somebody exceeds the amount but usually means somebody falls short. My guess if you took an average of the major cities we cover which includes CVG,CMH,DAY,IND,LOU AND LEX the amount would end up somewhere in the 1.75 to 2.00

[Trevor]

Trev I always like to be safe on the low end because with these waves there is the chance somebody misses the heavier amounts each time. I believe the higher side is the way to go but rain totals can be tricky especially if you see training which means somebody exceeds the amount but usually means somebody falls short. My guess if you took an average of the major cities we cover which includes CVG,CMH,DAY,IND,LOU AND LEX the amount would end up somewhere in the 1.75 to 2.00

I think most areas will hit 2-3” by late Saturday.

[Bgoney]

Next batch of rain for tomorrow morning gathering momentum

IMG_1261.gif

[Trevor]

Next batch of rain for tomorrow morning gathering momentum



IMG_1261.gif

Yes a wet day in store. A majority of guidance shows 1"+ tomorrow. Soggy day.

[Trevor]

Ensembles are in good agreement on temps for the next two weeks...

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 46, DAY 44 and CMH 41 on Tues.

[Bgoney]

Very similar to yesterday’s rains only more bouts with moderate intensity, then a break tonight with more rain tomorrow. Weekend rain with our usual chance for backside snowflakes

IMG_1264.gif

[Bgoney]

Regional totals so far for this week

IMG_1265.png

[tpweather]

Nice map Bgoney and shows how the first wave gave the higher amounts to the west. Each wave will continue to move further east but where you get the biggest totals is when a wave is stronger and the precip will also go further west. Cvg looks to be in a good spot to receive some of the higher totals this week as we are sort of in the middle of these waves getting some rain with each one. Wish this was April instead of January and some of it will run off because of the frozen ground until its thawed.

[Pete1]

Les. Can you imagine if this storm was all snow!!! Well, it’s fun to dream.

[Trevor]

A couple of graphics I just posted on my page. That fog tonight and tomorrow morning is going to be wicked!

[MVWxObserver]

At this rate it doesn't look like we'll see any sunshine again until Wed 1/31.

Currently 48 here in G'ville which is ILN's progged high.

[Bgoney]

In the heart of winter with models in good agreement the lower 48 , East of the Rockies to Apps , very little to no snow threats(other than near GLs) the next 10 days at least . Even well into southern Canada

[Bgoney]

Forecast to Friday afternoon

IMG_1274.png

[Trevor]

In the heart of winter with models in good agreement the lower 48 , East of the Rockies to Apps , very little to no snow threats(other than near GLs) the next 10 days at least . Even well into southern Canada

Shoot it will probably be even longer than that. It is entirely possible that the snow we just had recently was the biggest we will see all winter. It only takes one storm of course, but things aren’t looking super good. Sure we may see some cooler weather second half of Feb but even that’s not set in stone just yet. Not saying winter is over, but the clock is ticking. We only have just over a month of Met Winter left until we hit Met Spring and then chances really begin to decrease.

[Bgoney]

In the heart of winter with models in good agreement the lower 48 , East of the Rockies to Apps , very little to no snow threats(other than near GLs) the next 10 days at least . Even well into southern Canada

Shoot it will probably be even longer than that. It is entirely possible that the snow we just had recently was the biggest we will see all winter. It only takes one storm of course, but things aren’t looking super good. Sure we may see some cooler weather second half of Feb but even that’s not set in stone just yet. Not saying winter is over, but the clock is ticking. We only have just over a month of Met Winter left until we hit Met Spring and then chances really begin to decrease.

Nearly the same 500mb we saw in DEC/JAN, south central Canada or Hudson Bay ridging , that’s not an avenue for arctic air into the lower 48. Dire need of MJO cold phases

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and a lovely January day as the fog will continue to get thicker overnight and on Thursday. Short term is soggy but after the weekend I believe we have a stretch of calmer weather though still above normal temp wise but more like 3-5 above normal as the normal are on the rise. Has winter ended and of course not and really starting probably the 2nd week of Feb through the remainder of the month I am expecting a very stormy pattern as we get a good mix of arctic air and the STJ will be still be in place plus in February the GOM should remain open as it gets into the busy season though this week it seemed to get an early start.

Good thing is we have one extra day this winter with leap year so that should make a big difference lol. So yes I am expecting another big swing to colder weather though this time the coldest of air to the east but we should be okay. I agree about the mjo and models have not been very good with the strength and hopefully by this time next week we are in phase 7 heading to the colder phases.

[Trevor]

In the heart of winter with models in good agreement the lower 48 , East of the Rockies to Apps , very little to no snow threats(other than near GLs) the next 10 days at least . Even well into southern Canada

Shoot it will probably be even longer than that. It is entirely possible that the snow we just had recently was the biggest we will see all winter. It only takes one storm of course, but things aren’t looking super good. Sure we may see some cooler weather second half of Feb but even that’s not set in stone just yet. Not saying winter is over, but the clock is ticking. We only have just over a month of Met Winter left until we hit Met Spring and then chances really begin to decrease.

Nearly the same 500mb we saw in DEC/JAN, south central Canada or Hudson Bay ridging , that’s not an avenue for arctic air into the lower 48. Dire need of MJO cold phases

Agreed. I just don’t see anything to be super optimistic about for snow lovers.

[young pup]

I'm just wondering if we can get it to be any uglier outside. What a stretch of depressing weather we are going to be in.

[MVWxObserver]

I'm just wondering if we can get it to be any uglier outside. What a stretch of depressing weather we are going to be in.

Hi JP,

It looks like our next chance of seeing any sunshine will be Wed 1/31.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 56, DAY 54 and CMH 53 today.

[tron777]

Les. Can you imagine if this storm was all snow!!! Well, it’s fun to dream.

I know it Pete! A dream storm my friend.

[tron777]

55 here currently and it is my current temp. I'll have to start looking at some models again soon when I get some time to do so. There's a lot of planning to do and things to take care of right now but please be rest assured, I will be back posting my normal ridiculous amount when we get past the funeral and such which is on 2/3. One thing is for sure, I'm done with all of the rain and mud. We're out of the drought now, or will be soon. Let's get some snow going again come February! I'd love to have one nice storm before spring comes!

[MVWxObserver]

55 here currently and it is my current temp. I'll have to start looking at some models again soon when I get some time to do so. There's a lot of planning to do and things to take care of right now but please be rest assured, I will be back posting my normal ridiculous amount when we get past the funeral and such which is on 2/3. One thing is for sure, I'm done with all of the rain and mud. We're out of the drought now, or will be soon. Let's get some snow going again come February! I'd love to have one nice storm before spring comes!

Hi Les,

It would be nice to have at least some mood flakes if not a coating / dusting for that day.

My paternal grandmother from Anderson, IN passed away on Christmas Eve 1988 and on the eve of her funeral it had snowed and the day of her service was still some snow showers around.