Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

Otis achieved Cat 5 intensity last evening with winds of 165 mph before it made landfall this morning in Mexico. Amazing! That storm went from a TS to a Cat 5 in less then 24 hours. WOW! No model or human had that in the forecast. A Cat 1 was all that was expected. This was the advisory last evening from the NHC when Otis was at its peak:

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL
STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen.
The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph
(270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to
remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3 99.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

[tron777]

What was once TD21 on the Atlantic side is now over on the Pacific side. This system has a 70% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

[tpweather]

Otis achieved Cat 5 intensity last evening with winds of 165 mph before it made landfall this morning in Mexico. Amazing! That storm went from a TS to a Cat 5 in less then 24 hours. WOW! No model or human had that in the forecast. A Cat 1 was all that was expected. This was the advisory last evening from the NHC when Otis was at its peak:

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL
STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen.
The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph
(270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to
remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3 99.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

This one is a storm that needs plenty of research. Most of the time we see Cat3-Cat5 and yes they can produce horrible conditions but we have a heads up but this storm to develop that quickly is one I have not seen in that part of the world. No doubt imo that warmer waters are helping these storms gain strength and gain it quickly. That is one reason I believe that storms in the GOM late this fall and winter will have plenty of moisture to work with and no not talking about tropical systems but some severe outbreaks in the southeast in the next few months and Florida could be the target come this winter.

[tron777]

I am almost certain Tim that someone will probably do a case study on Otis in the off season. All models missed this rapid intensification. I don't know if I have ever seen a TS go to a Cat 5 that quickly either! An amazing storm for sure!

Monday night's (which would be Tues 10/24) advisory at 1am CDT, had Otis as a TS with winds of 50 mph.
24 hours later, which was last night at 1am CDT (which would be Wed 10/25), had at at a Cat 5 with winds of 165 mph!
At 1:25am CDT, it made landfall as a Cat 5 with winds of 165 mph near Acapulco, Mexico.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/OTIS.shtml?

[MVWxObserver]

Usually mild mannered, HE TURNED FIERCELY FEROCIOUS!!

[tron777]

Former TD 21 on the Atlantic side now over on the Pacific side, has an 80% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

[tron777]

A wave off the Guatemalan Coast continues to have a 90% chance of development and should become a TD soon.

[tron777]

TD 19E is now born with winds of 35 mph. Movement is to the NNW at 3 mph. This one is expected to become a TS, clip Mexico then turn back out to sea.

[tron777]

We now have TS Pilar with winds of 45 mph moving ENE at 3 mph. This one will impact the Central American Coasts of Guatemala and Nicaragua before turning out to sea as a TS, If the forecast is right, this one should be gone by this weekend.

[tron777]

TS Pilar has winds of 50 mph moving E at 3 mph. This system should begin to turn more to the west in the next 24 to 36 hours and move away from land out to sea. It is expected to remain a TS and be gone by sometime this weekend.

[tron777]

The only item on the board right now for the entire globe is still TS Pilar. Winds are at 50 mph moving towards the west away from land. This system will continue weakening into a depression by tomorrow and be off the board probably by Tues or Wed of next week.

[tron777]

We have a weak late season TS called Ramon with winds of 40 mph. This one is drifting slowly to the west out in no man's land and will be done in a day or two.