Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

Otis achieved Cat 5 intensity last evening with winds of 165 mph before it made landfall this morning in Mexico. Amazing! That storm went from a TS to a Cat 5 in less then 24 hours. WOW! No model or human had that in the forecast. A Cat 1 was all that was expected. This was the advisory last evening from the NHC when Otis was at its peak:

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL
STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen.
The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph
(270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to
remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3 99.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

[tron777]

What was once TD21 on the Atlantic side is now over on the Pacific side. This system has a 70% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

[tpweather]

Otis achieved Cat 5 intensity last evening with winds of 165 mph before it made landfall this morning in Mexico. Amazing! That storm went from a TS to a Cat 5 in less then 24 hours. WOW! No model or human had that in the forecast. A Cat 1 was all that was expected. This was the advisory last evening from the NHC when Otis was at its peak:

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL
STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen.
The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph
(270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to
remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3 99.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

This one is a storm that needs plenty of research. Most of the time we see Cat3-Cat5 and yes they can produce horrible conditions but we have a heads up but this storm to develop that quickly is one I have not seen in that part of the world. No doubt imo that warmer waters are helping these storms gain strength and gain it quickly. That is one reason I believe that storms in the GOM late this fall and winter will have plenty of moisture to work with and no not talking about tropical systems but some severe outbreaks in the southeast in the next few months and Florida could be the target come this winter.

[tron777]

I am almost certain Tim that someone will probably do a case study on Otis in the off season. All models missed this rapid intensification. I don't know if I have ever seen a TS go to a Cat 5 that quickly either! An amazing storm for sure!

Monday night's (which would be Tues 10/24) advisory at 1am CDT, had Otis as a TS with winds of 50 mph.
24 hours later, which was last night at 1am CDT (which would be Wed 10/25), had at at a Cat 5 with winds of 165 mph!
At 1:25am CDT, it made landfall as a Cat 5 with winds of 165 mph near Acapulco, Mexico.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/OTIS.shtml?

[MVWxObserver]

Usually mild mannered, HE TURNED FIERCELY FEROCIOUS!!

[tron777]

Former TD 21 on the Atlantic side now over on the Pacific side, has an 80% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

[tron777]

A wave off the Guatemalan Coast continues to have a 90% chance of development and should become a TD soon.

[tron777]

TD 19E is now born with winds of 35 mph. Movement is to the NNW at 3 mph. This one is expected to become a TS, clip Mexico then turn back out to sea.

[tron777]

We now have TS Pilar with winds of 45 mph moving ENE at 3 mph. This one will impact the Central American Coasts of Guatemala and Nicaragua before turning out to sea as a TS, If the forecast is right, this one should be gone by this weekend.

[tron777]

TS Pilar has winds of 50 mph moving E at 3 mph. This system should begin to turn more to the west in the next 24 to 36 hours and move away from land out to sea. It is expected to remain a TS and be gone by sometime this weekend.

[tron777]

The only item on the board right now for the entire globe is still TS Pilar. Winds are at 50 mph moving towards the west away from land. This system will continue weakening into a depression by tomorrow and be off the board probably by Tues or Wed of next week.

[tron777]

We have a weak late season TS called Ramon with winds of 40 mph. This one is drifting slowly to the west out in no man's land and will be done in a day or two.

[tron777]

We have a wave off of Mexico that now has a 60% chance of development.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 105.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

Now have TS Aletta.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Aletta Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ALETTA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 107.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Depression Aletta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024

...ALETTA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 108.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[tron777]

We have a weak TS Bud with winds of 45 mph. It is located well off the Mexican Coast. It will be a short lived system and it will not affect land.

[tron777]

A tropical wave off of the Central American coast, has an 80% chance of developing in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

We're up to a 90% chance now in the next 5 days.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 109.9W
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane but it won't bother any land masses. There is a wave behind this one off the coast that will likely become the next named system in the East PAC.

[tron777]

Carlotta is up to 70 mph now and will become a hurricane shortly. The wave behind her is up to a 90% chance now in the next 5 days.

[tron777]

Carlotta is a hurricane with winds of 90 mph. There is a wave behind out and another out in front of her that also both appear to become TD's very soon. East Pac is hot with action right now!

[tron777]

The East Pac is on fire with TS Carlotta, TS Daniel, TD 5 and another wave behind that which is likely to become a TD shortly as well.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM EMILIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 113.2W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.