Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2022-2023

[tron777]

Our annual thread is back where we begin to discuss what may, or may not shape up our winter! Time to talk long range, La Nina, and all of the other indices that we normally discuss. As of early Aug, we are watching the following:

Third Year Nina
-IOD
+QBO
High solar activity
-PDO right now, but those waters are warming, need to monitor that.

So to get things going... here is the annual entertaining outlook from the Farmer's Almanac, and as you would guess, the kiss of death for us around here with their outlook. For entertainment purposes only.

Farmersalmanac.jpg

[winterstormjoe]

Our annual thread is back where we begin to discuss what may, or may not shape up our winter! Time to talk long range, La Nina, and all of the other indices that we normally discuss. As of early Aug, we are watching the following:

Third Year Nina
-IOD
+QBO
High solar activity
-PDO right now, but those waters are warming, need to monitor that.

So to get things going... here is the annual entertaining outlook from the Farmer's Almanac, and as you would guess, the kiss of death for us around here with their outlook. For entertainment purposes only.


Farmersalmanac.jpg

Wow, that would stifle the left's climate warming agenda. Lol! I needed a laugh this morning!!

[tron777]

Wow, that would stifle the left's climate warming agenda. Lol! I needed a laugh this morning!!

Yes it would, Joe and wait for the Old Farmer's Almanac which usually comes out a few weeks later. It will probably show the opposite, wet and mild. So one of them will have to be right. That's usually how it goes.

[Trevor]

@Les you’re an evil SOB! I wasn’t ready yet

[tron777]

@Les you’re an evil SOB! I wasn’t ready yet

I'm always ready! I was born ready!

EDIT: Go dig up your heat miser thread from last year. It still exists. I checked.

[Trevor]

@Les you’re an evil SOB! I wasn’t ready yet

I'm always ready! I was born ready!

EDIT: Go dig up your heat miser thread from last year. It still exists. I checked.

oh believe me, I will. It’s a lonely thread since most on here like snow and cold! But I’ll bring it back within the next couple months as things begin to turn.

[tron777]

@Les you’re an evil SOB! I wasn’t ready yet

I'm always ready! I was born ready!

EDIT: Go dig up your heat miser thread from last year. It still exists. I checked.

oh believe me, I will. It’s a lonely thread since most on here like snow and cold! But I’ll bring it back within the next couple months as things begin to turn.

We are like the clashing of airmasses Trev! Why can't we blow up a big storm?

[tron777]

As of 8/2, global SST anomalies:

ssta.daily.current.png

[tpweather]

Winter storm watch for parts of northeast Alaska. Les winter is on its way!!!

[tron777]

Winter storm watch for parts of northeast Alaska. Les winter is on its way!!!

I had to go look and it's for the Brooks range (as you would expect this early). 2-4" from 2-3K feet and 8" plus once you get above 3K feet in elevation. Awesome!!

[MVWxObserver]

@Les you’re an evil SOB! I wasn’t ready yet

I'm always ready! I was born ready!

EDIT: Go dig up your heat miser thread from last year. It still exists. I checked.

oh believe me, I will. It’s a lonely thread since most on here like snow and cold! But I’ll bring it back within the next couple months as things begin to turn.

Trev, I can relate as I like some snow, just not a ton of it bro!

[tpweather]

Good Evening and already working on winter lol. Something that is interesting to me this year is the arctic regions have been colder than normal this summer and will this help in getting those regions colder this winter. Some of the recent winters we had saw some rather warm fall seasons in the so called arctic regions and folks just south of that area. Not sure what will happen this fall but getting an earlier start to the cold in those regions may help in seeing very cold temps up there this winter which in turn gives us a better shot of seeing a few arctic air masses head our way earlier in the season? These are just early thoughts and again another couple of months before getting into more details.

[tron777]

Good Evening and already working on winter lol. Something that is interesting to me this year is the arctic regions have been colder than normal this summer and will this help in getting those regions colder this winter. Some of the recent winters we had saw some rather warm fall seasons in the so called arctic regions and folks just south of that area. Not sure what will happen this fall but getting an earlier start to the cold in those regions may help in seeing very cold temps up there this winter which in turn gives us a better shot of seeing a few arctic air masses head our way earlier in the season? These are just early thoughts and again another couple of months before getting into more details.

I think La Nina is going to be a force again. Weak to moderate in strength is possible at this time. If this occurs, I'd like to see the Nina peak in November then begin to weaken in December. If that kind of timing happens, I'd expect a cold and fast start, a mild middle period then nice ending period as we go towards cold neutral in spring. A book end winter so to speak. Some early thoughts swirling around in my head right now.

[Snowbrain2]

Glad to see the early Winter thread again. Really enjoy the postings on here so I don't have to research it myself. Les and the gang do a great job looking at the features that stir our weather.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and already working on winter lol. Something that is interesting to me this year is the arctic regions have been colder than normal this summer and will this help in getting those regions colder this winter. Some of the recent winters we had saw some rather warm fall seasons in the so called arctic regions and folks just south of that area. Not sure what will happen this fall but getting an earlier start to the cold in those regions may help in seeing very cold temps up there this winter which in turn gives us a better shot of seeing a few arctic air masses head our way earlier in the season? These are just early thoughts and again another couple of months before getting into more details.

I think La Nina is going to be a force again. Weak to moderate in strength is possible at this time. If this occurs, I'd like to see the Nina peak in November then begin to weaken in December. If that kind of timing happens, I'd expect a cold and fast start, a mild middle period then nice ending period as we go towards cold neutral in spring. A book end winter so to speak. Some early thoughts swirling around in my head right now.

Les it is wild with some of the best met's in the country how they see this playing out. I will use Larry Cosgrove who over the past few years has been in a so called slump and again that happens as we all have a bias and sometimes that can hurt you when forecasting. He is touting how El Nino is forming already and he picks out a few items that you normally see when previous ones have formed. I believe the problem is that earth is always changing and sure there are things from the past that you can lean on for a forecast but keeping up with mother nature is the hard part. Sort like us old folks keeping up with technology and its not easy as the mind will become less sharp year after year.

[tron777]

Glad to see the early Winter thread again. Really enjoy the postings on here so I don't have to research it myself. Les and the gang do a great job looking at the features that stir our weather.

Always a pleasure Jeff, seeing your snowy pics and videos in winter when we have the 50s and rain down here! Hopefully the Lake Effect will be kinder to Chardon this year!

[tron777]

Good Evening and already working on winter lol. Something that is interesting to me this year is the arctic regions have been colder than normal this summer and will this help in getting those regions colder this winter. Some of the recent winters we had saw some rather warm fall seasons in the so called arctic regions and folks just south of that area. Not sure what will happen this fall but getting an earlier start to the cold in those regions may help in seeing very cold temps up there this winter which in turn gives us a better shot of seeing a few arctic air masses head our way earlier in the season? These are just early thoughts and again another couple of months before getting into more details.

I think La Nina is going to be a force again. Weak to moderate in strength is possible at this time. If this occurs, I'd like to see the Nina peak in November then begin to weaken in December. If that kind of timing happens, I'd expect a cold and fast start, a mild middle period then nice ending period as we go towards cold neutral in spring. A book end winter so to speak. Some early thoughts swirling around in my head right now.

Les it is wild with some of the best met's in the country how they see this playing out. I will use Larry Cosgrove who over the past few years has been in a so called slump and again that happens as we all have a bias and sometimes that can hurt you when forecasting. He is touting how El Nino is forming already and he picks out a few items that you normally see when previous ones have formed. I believe the problem is that earth is always changing and sure there are things from the past that you can lean on for a forecast but keeping up with mother nature is the hard part. Sort like us old folks keeping up with technology and its not easy as the mind will become less sharp year after year.

I think Larry did a great job with his summer forecast. I respectfully disagree on any El Nino talk until 2023. Bgoney has been keeping us updated with the trade winds and me with the SOI Data and it all is still pointing to a third year Nina taking place this winter. I just don't see it warming like that right now. If anything, the Nina should increase this Autumn if nothing else.

ssta_c.gif

wkxzteq_anm.gif

[tron777]

Do you guys remember that huge underwater volcanic eruption earlier in the year? It was in the Pacific Ocean near the Tonga Islands. Recall the huge amount of ash, sulphur, and water vapor that was injected into the stratosphere? How is this going to impact the PV this season? Will the PV be very strong and tough to break? Too early to call but anyway some monitoring is below of what has been happening over the S. Hemisphere over their winter season (summer for us in the north of course)

[tpweather]

Good Evening and already working on winter lol. Something that is interesting to me this year is the arctic regions have been colder than normal this summer and will this help in getting those regions colder this winter. Some of the recent winters we had saw some rather warm fall seasons in the so called arctic regions and folks just south of that area. Not sure what will happen this fall but getting an earlier start to the cold in those regions may help in seeing very cold temps up there this winter which in turn gives us a better shot of seeing a few arctic air masses head our way earlier in the season? These are just early thoughts and again another couple of months before getting into more details.

I think La Nina is going to be a force again. Weak to moderate in strength is possible at this time. If this occurs, I'd like to see the Nina peak in November then begin to weaken in December. If that kind of timing happens, I'd expect a cold and fast start, a mild middle period then nice ending period as we go towards cold neutral in spring. A book end winter so to speak. Some early thoughts swirling around in my head right now.

Les it is wild with some of the best met's in the country how they see this playing out. I will use Larry Cosgrove who over the past few years has been in a so called slump and again that happens as we all have a bias and sometimes that can hurt you when forecasting. He is touting how El Nino is forming already and he picks out a few items that you normally see when previous ones have formed. I believe the problem is that earth is always changing and sure there are things from the past that you can lean on for a forecast but keeping up with mother nature is the hard part. Sort like us old folks keeping up with technology and its not easy as the mind will become less sharp year after year.

I think Larry did a great job with his summer forecast. I respectfully disagree on any El Nino talk until 2023. Bgoney has been keeping us updated with the trade winds and me with the SOI Data and it all is still pointing to a third year Nina taking place this winter. I just don't see it warming like that right now. If anything, the Nina should increase this Autumn if nothing else.


ssta_c.gif


wkxzteq_anm.gif

Les you are correct about this summer and Larry did a good job. It has been the past several years where he has been in a slump and this will happen to all met's who make a forecast on their own without a tv station or someone else telling them what can be presented. Many great met's but when they tow the company line it can look bad at times. Ratings ratings and more ratings is the key but that does not mean the info is that reliable. Concerning whether it is a La Nina or neutral is sort of hard to call this early but El Nino imo is not going to happen.

[tron777]

Les you are correct about this summer and Larry did a good job. It has been the past several years where he has been in a slump and this will happen to all met's who make a forecast on their own without a tv station or someone else telling them what can be presented. Many great met's but when they tow the company line it can look bad at times. Ratings ratings and more ratings is the key but that does not mean the info is that reliable. Concerning whether it is a La Nina or neutral is sort of hard to call this early but El Nino imo is not going to happen.

I absolutely could see an El Nino for the winter of 23/24 but we'll worry about that come this time next year. Anyway, I think we're good going with a third year Nina here for this winter with a +QBO, -IOD and potentially -PDO. Now what we don't know is, does this Nina take on a more east based look where the coolest anomalies are off the South American Coast? That would be helpful for the Eastern US should the SST's take on that look. Again, too early to know how this will pan out but we do want it to be east based. That much I do know. Right now it looks more of a modiki or Central based with the cooler SST's but there is time for that to change this Fall most certainly.

[tron777]

Thank you CPC for finally getting on board.

[tpweather]

Thank you CPC for finally getting on board.

Les I can only go on some of the forecasts and look the ocean temps to try and make a forecast about the the Enso will look like. Those cold waters have been ongoing in the eastern Pacific and though we have some warmer waters in the western Pacific hard for me to say that a La Nina is not the most likely option this winter. When I see Larry going with a El Nino I always give it a second thought because of his overall knowledge especially outside North America

[tron777]

Thank you CPC for finally getting on board.

Les I can only go on some of the forecasts and look the ocean temps to try and make a forecast about the the Enso will look like. Those cold waters have been ongoing in the eastern Pacific and though we have some warmer waters in the western Pacific hard for me to say that a La Nina is not the most likely option this winter. When I see Larry going with a El Nino I always give it a second thought because of his overall knowledge especially outside North America

You know my thoughts and where my mind is headed. Exactly in the La Nina direction. Now the question for me is the Pacific. Will it cooperate with some ridging in the PNA or EPO domains? Or is the trough going to remain out West and we see some SE ridging? Sometimes we can see both ideas. I'm thinking right now kind of like last winter where the cold air in Canada was always readily available but how it gets into the CONUS is the question. I can see some very cold periods especially early in the season. This fall esp by October and November are going to be interesting to see where the trough's dominant position will be. As you can already tell, I'm excited!

[Bgoney]

I really don't know what Larry has been looking at the last 2 months, to make him think anything close to ElNino was going to happen for the 22/23 winter months. SOI, sub- surface temps, raging easterlies, what was he looking at?

[tron777]

I really don't know what Larry has been looking at the last 2 months, to make him think anything close to ElNino was going to happen for the 22/23 winter months. SOI, sub- surface temps, raging easterlies, what was he looking at?

Not at this forum, that's apparent.