Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

[Trevor]

Model runs have been consistent for a few days now for either one or multiple areas of low pressure to impact the region. Multiple outcomes are possible, and this storm(s) will likely feature everything from thunderstorms to crippling snow and ice and everything in between. As is always the case, the track is one of the major deciding factors for what kind of weather your particular backyard will experience.

[Trevor]

12z Canadian coming in with another juicy run; nearly 3" of precipitation. This run is a bit colder than 00z. Sleet fest for the metro, heavy snow north and heavy freezing rain south.

[tron777]

GFS is NW showing mainly rain ending as slop. CMC has a crippling sleet / ice storm. GEFS has a good mix of wintry solutions and a few rainers. Euro running now...

[Trevor]

Further adding, the Canadian really delivers for the snow starved folks in central Illinois and Indiana

[tron777]

Euro looks to come in a bit NW of 0Z.

[tron777]

It's still going to be way colder then the GFS though. Def going to be closer to the Canadian.

[tron777]

Looks like more of a rain, bit of sleet then heavy snow looking at CVG text data. Much less of an ice threat on this run which is good.

[Bgoney]

EU slower with arctic boundary reaching cvgland compared to its 0z.

[tron777]

This is looking good for Thursday!

Code: Select all

CVG
WED 12Z 02-FEB   2.9     3.6    1021      81      91    0.01     564     547    
WED 18Z 02-FEB   3.6     4.0    1019      97      91    0.44     563     547    
THU 00Z 03-FEB   3.1     2.6    1019      99      95    0.20     562     547    
THU 06Z 03-FEB   2.2     2.6    1019      99      98    0.16     561     545    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -4.0    -1.1    1025      91      99    0.25     560     541    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -6.9    -4.2    1026      85      99    0.60     560     540    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -8.6    -6.4    1029      84      98    0.23     559     537    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -9.7    -7.5    1030      77      55    0.02     557     534 

[tron777]

Code: Select all

DAY

WED 12Z 02-FEB   2.9     2.6    1021      80      70    0.03     563     546    
WED 18Z 02-FEB   3.3     2.3    1019      90      97    0.39     561     546    
THU 00Z 03-FEB   3.2     0.8    1019      95      99    0.25     560     545    
THU 06Z 03-FEB  -1.3     0.0    1021      92      99    0.24     559     542    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -6.5    -4.6    1027      86      99    0.23     558     538    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -9.0    -6.5    1028      86      99    0.35     558     537    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -9.8    -7.6    1030      87      93    0.16     557     534    

[tron777]

Code: Select all

HAO

WED 12Z 02-FEB   2.9     3.4    1021      81      85    0.02     563     547    
WED 18Z 02-FEB   3.5     3.4    1019      93      95    0.49     562     547    
THU 00Z 03-FEB   3.4     1.8    1019      97      99    0.20     561     546    
THU 06Z 03-FEB   1.1     1.6    1020      96      99    0.18     560     544    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -4.7    -2.8    1026      85      99    0.22     559     540    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -7.5    -5.4    1027      83     100    0.46     559     538    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -9.1    -6.9    1030      84      97    0.19     558     536    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -10.8    -8.0    1031      79      41    0.01     556     533   

[Bgoney]

Perfect low track , make this day 2 and im happy

[tron777]

A much slower run. 0Z had a 1004 Low over Eastern KY Thurs afternoon. 12Z run has a 1009 MB low over NC Alabama over to GA. 0Z run took the low up into PA and NY State. Big difference between the two runs. For CVG snow weenies, this is the better solution for us (12Z)

[tron777]

Euro 10:1 I do not have a Kuchera.

Euro10to1.png

[Trevor]

Euro 10:1 I do not have a Kuchera.


Euro10to1.png

Solid hit!

[tpweather]

Let the battle begin. Euro colder and slower. Sleet and models always tend to overdo sleet output. Usually such a narrow band between frz/ra and snow and usually need a strong low pressure system and though there looks to be tons of precip the low pressure itself never seems to get really strong and part of that would deal with the strong high pressure to the northwest

[Trevor]

12z Euro has similar placement as the GFS re: crippling ice.

[tpweather]

Should be a fun storm to watch and hopefully tune up the forecasting skills. Very few systems like this so far and trying to get the so called analog back in the brain for this system. Hopefully by Monday the models will come in better agreement. My first though a few days ago was to go milder and especially the first wave but when I saw the AO all of a sudden jump to really negative for that period that told me its probably going to be colder and the waves further southeast plus a slower overall pattern.

[Trevor]

12z Euro Snowfall (Kuchera)

Pretty extreme snowfall rates Thu morning through midday. Most of that snow falls in a 6-8hr window. Impressive!

[dce]

12z Euro Snowfall (Kuchera)

Pretty extreme snowfall rates Thu morning through midday. Most of that snow falls in a 6-8hr window. Impressive!

That would be on top of all that ice. A very impressive event is about to unfold.

[tron777]

12Z EPS Mean at 10:1 Very impressive!

EPS Mean.jpg

[Trevor]

Let the battle begin. Euro colder and slower. Sleet and models always tend to overdo sleet output. Usually such a narrow band between frz/ra and snow and usually need a strong low pressure system and though there looks to be tons of precip the low pressure itself never seems to get really strong and part of that would deal with the strong high pressure to the northwest

I still have PTSD from that sleet fest last February

[tron777]

Let the battle begin. Euro colder and slower. Sleet and models always tend to overdo sleet output. Usually such a narrow band between frz/ra and snow and usually need a strong low pressure system and though there looks to be tons of precip the low pressure itself never seems to get really strong and part of that would deal with the strong high pressure to the northwest

I still have PTSD from that sleet fest last February

Me too! I love fireworks not pingers!

[Trevor]

Let the battle begin. Euro colder and slower. Sleet and models always tend to overdo sleet output. Usually such a narrow band between frz/ra and snow and usually need a strong low pressure system and though there looks to be tons of precip the low pressure itself never seems to get really strong and part of that would deal with the strong high pressure to the northwest

I still have PTSD from that sleet fest last February

Me too! I love fireworks not pingers!

Was still an extremely impactful storm for the area, especially with the final few inches falling over all that ice. But man that one was so close to burying us. The NAM won that storm big time. The only model to show the sleet fest.

[tron777]

I remember how awful it was shoveling. You really couldn't. Used a lot of salt to melt that crap lol We are due for a big snow storm We've had major ice in recent years, pingers last year. 33 and rain. Now come on!