I changed it to more of a rainy like thread title, as if we do see snow, I am more interested around the 24th and beyond. I have seen a couple of model runs showing Strong T-storm chances for Sat afternoon on the 20th but that is a way's off of course, hence the thread change.

Models continue to indicate a large storm next weekend and a strong cold front. Doesn't appear that we'll have sufficient moisture return for any severe thunderstorms, however the strong 850 jet will need to be watched for isolated damaging wind gusts as the line of showers moves through, plus strong winds behind the front. The euro doesn't really spin up the surface low near here and has a much thinner trough which would cause a very basic frontal passage with a few showers....Something to watch.

Until then, skies slowly try to clear this week, probably not back to 100% perfect until Wed/Thurs time frame when temps also will start to head near 60.

12Z NAM tries to bring in some very light showers on Wed, whereas the GFS is mainly dry. We'd still see some clouds and I think we will not see 60 or better until Thurs or Fri. the way it is looking to me right now. For next weekend, 12Z GFS is trying to give us a 50/50 weekend by holding the rain off until Sat night/Sunday. The model is slowing the front down due to a secondary area of low pressure developing along the front. The first low heads into the GL's and the second low tracks from MO to the Lakes on Sunday. The 12Z Euro is interesting. First of all, for Wed, it keeps the moisture (per the RH maps) just South of here, but close enough that slight chance POPS could be warranted esp. in KY. So we have NAM/Euro with possible POPS and GFS Dry. So for Wed slight chance POPS might be required if we see this trend continuing. For the weekend, the 12Z Euro takes the first low into the Lakes, but the secondary low that develops tracks up the Apps and at 168 Hours (Day 7 on Sunday), the upper levels are supportive for snow! I don't have access to temps. so I doubt we'd get anything out of it, but it is interesting looking nonetheless. I really don't buy it either, so I am going with rain perhaps ending as some wet snow flakes because I have seen that situation on the models for quite sometime.

Ground and 2m temps too warm for accum per that run of the euro but it would indeed be a little light snow on the back side of the front

Just a quick side note to pass along, remember now that since we're on Daylight Savings Time, the start time that the models run are up an hour. Example, 12Z GFS will now start at 11:30am instead of 10:30am.

The 0Z models indicate that we should mainly stay dry this week (outside of some drizzle today). I am still though going to keep in a 20% POP for Wed, as some very light QPF is being shown in scattered fashion nearby per the NAM and GFS. The bulk of the energy is shown to stay to our West. Probably more clouds than anything on Wed, but a few sprinkles or very light showers I think are possible. Thurs and Fri look great and then by Sat afternoon rain and storms move in with a strong cold front. Euro has come around to the GFS and CMC in tracking the low pressure system close to the region up into Michigan, so I still think a few flakes of snow are possible Sat night or Sun morning.

Nice energy overhead Sat PM as a line of strong showers/storms moves through. Damaging winds a possibility per this run...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150m.gif

The upcoming weekend system on the 12Z GFS this afternoon is still looking rather strong. 500 MB charts indicates a large "ball" of energy at the upper levels moving in and a thin ribbon of moisture at the 700 MB levels. Moisture return is still not that impressive, but I do like the LLJ that is still being forecast with this system. I think going with strong T-storms with damaging winds being the most likely threat is a good call for Sat afternoon / evening at this point. Isolated severe? Sure... but the moisture return behind the high for Thurs/Fri could be a limiting factor. For Sunday, a gloomy, cold day can be expected behind the front with some light showers or drizzle which could linger into Mon morning per today's GFS.

12Z Euro looks a bit slower than the GFS and also further SE with the track of low right over us and up the I-71 corridor.

Looks like nice weather the rest of this week. Saturday might end up okay if the GFS/Euro timing is correct, but I left slight chance late.

Showers and high winds will be the main threats Saturday night/Sunday. I went ahead and said flurries Sunday night/Monday morning.....Temps look to be near 60 by Wed. and mid 60s by Saturday!

Then cold start to next week

If I can get it to be dry enough, I'm hoping to build a bonfire out back on a near future weekend.

Right now, my yard is *squish, squish, squish" as I walk across it.

Yeah, it's soaked everywhere (yards).

Yeah! I got 1.7" total for this past event.

00z GFS shows a healthy band of heavy rain (even strong t-storms) late Sat night through Sun morning. Plenty of mid/upper-level energy overhead, so some dynamically driven damaging wind producers would not be hard to come by. Now we await the CMC and the Euro.

The 00z CMC shows a surface low tracking to our north Sat night, with a band of heavy rain/thunder moving in between 7-9pm.