The 12Z GFS is not as high with the QPF as the NAM thru 84 hours, but I feel it is more realistic. Still impressive for this time of year though.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif


Severe WX wise, the NAM is more impressive looking to me then the GFS. This run of the GFS is less impressive looking in terms of LI and CAPE. 0Z run looked much better for us. However, strong storms I think are still a good possibility for Thurs and Fri, and I am still more impressed with Friday than Thurs for our region. I do not think severe wx can be ruled out entirely though but I do think that our chances will decrease if we see a lot of cloudy skies and heavy rains. Strong storms, absolutely. Severe, less likely. If we can get dry slotted though, then it's a whole new ball game. I think that this will be a good NOW Cast and that the models are not picking up on the dry slot potential. They show a round of storms tomorrow, a break, then another on Friday. Both days appear to be afternoon hour events, which is good for max daytime heating. Now... of course you don't always need sunshine for severe wx to occur. But since it is early March I think that could use a little bit of it to help our cause this go around. The primary threats imo will be hailers and perhaps an isolated tornado due to the proximity of the ULL which should add a little spin in the atmosphere. I do not expect a widespread outbreak for our area though where every county would get a warning. Just a little teaser to get us in the mood for severe wx season.

I think a slight risk will be warranted tomorrow in the tri-state (or very close-by), though we shall see what the SPC does...

NMM

Very similar to the NAM in regards to showing a band of strong to severe convection rolling through late tomorrow evening (7-11pm).

We def. need to keep an eye on the Ohio River due to what's going on up by the Pitt. area. FFW in effect there. DPs across the region are now at 50 or better. If we can see the conditions tomorrow morning and midday that we're seeing today then I am all on board the severe wx train.... absolutely! It'll be interesting to see where the outflow boundaries go as well from the ongoing storms down to our SW. I think that the energy associated with that area of storms should be moving NE towards us for tomorrow. Trev has had a good handle on this. I've played the more conservative route, which I usually do, but that is just me. I do that because you guys know how many times things have looked good yet we still get the shaft. That is why in terms of severe wx I typically play the conservative role. However, as I just mentioned I will strongly agree with Trev on tomorrow's threat if we can see the conditions present that are going on today. Tomorrow, we'll have the lift which obviously we do not have today.

This is interesting... TOR Watch out for MS and AL. This area was not even in the SPC's 10% TOR Risk area this morning. As of this afternoon, the SPC has expanded the TOR Area to cover a rather large area! I am now becoming concerned and wondering, COULD we see some of those conditions present here tomorrow? 12Z Sounding information will be very interesting tomorrow. This appears to be turning into a much bigger event than I thought, and I am now going to get on board with the rest of the forecasting crew here. Nice work folks...

Another thought...the NAM (which is usually decent with severe weather products) showed little to no CAPE in the region for this afternoon. 1000j/kg pocket already present to our NW (N IN/IL)...

The SPC is supposed to be updating the Day 1 Outlook for Severe Weather around 3pm. There is talk that they may upgrade a portion of the Slight Risk area to a Moderate Risk.

Another very nice afternoon today with temps in the mid/upper 60s and some sunshine! Looks like we'll be mainly dry through tonight. The main concern in the next 48 hours is severe weather, then some flooding beyond that.

I'm a little leery about svr wx tomorrow b/c of clouds. GFS and NAM both indicate a lot of moisture at 700 and 850mb and develop little CAPE. The NAM did a really good job showing the instability around today (of course no lift so we have nothing going on) and it even showed the highest spot in central OH. However, it said 750 j/kg and we're up around 1000 out there which is a little concerning....For tomorrow I think CAPE between 300-500 j/kg could occur which is enough to have a risk. Looks like it will be late afternoon into the evening as a batch of storms moving in. The storms will be decaying (as in from severe limits) as they move in but if it's early enough they could pack a decent punch.

Friday still looks best IMO. Nice sunshine early, the NAM says over 1000 CAPE (The GFS is out to lunch I think and it's weak idea today doesn't flow with previous runs) and LI's under -4 with nice shear and cold air aloft. Looks like a good hail threat and perhaps some isolated spin ups.

Bottom line, both days have the potential for strong storms with Friday being the most likely for severe although I could see it either day.

The NAM did a good job showing the instability today? There are pockets of 1000j/kg scattered across the region in areas where the NAM showed very little (esp N IN/IL).

Yes, it completely missed northern IN/IL good point. But it picked up on the CAPE around here (albeit too weak) It was much more than the GFS though was what I was saying, so I took the NAM's forecast for tomorrow/Friday. Who knows, it might be under doing it again.

One thing worth pointing out, there are SVR/TOR warnings in western MO right now with 0 SB CAPE...Now there is some aloft (on the MU chart) but barely any. So we not even need much CAPE to get things going.

Dynamic-driven events are great aren't they?

The radar is really lighting up tonight with severe T-storms currently affecting 8 states over the Southern Plains and lower MS Valley. SVR T-storm warnings and TOR warnings are on-going at this time.

That is the ultimate question for this afternoon and evening. Will the activity currently headed our way stabilize the atmosphere and hurt our chances? For severe wx chances today, my money says probably not Western Sections, perhaps an isolated cell Eastern Sections of the ILN CWA. I think the clouds and rain will probably do us in the way it is looking right now. Clouds already are moving into the area with the rainfall probably moving in by late morning or midday hours.

Our instability today will be severely limited by clouds moving in from the decaying line of showers/storms to our west. We might get a little later, but I suspect it will keep our threat a lot lower. All models indicate very little if any instability today, but enough for some thunder at least. Will have to monitor if we get any more sun to boost a severe threat. Right now I don't think we'll get much.

For Friday, the GFS is indicating nearly 1000 j/kg CAPE and LI's of -2 to -4 with DPs in the low 50s. As long as we get some sun tomorrow that will fire some hail producing storms and perhaps even some rotating storms given the modest amount of shear.

The long range GFS shows a decent clipper with rain, changing to light snow next Saturday. Then some cold rain events and more chances for thunderstorms. Temps should stay near normal with a few blips in each way ahead of/behind bigger storms.

Afternoon looks interesting. Clouds look to extend somewhere just West of Evansville, IN. I think sometime around 1, we could see some clearing. Doubt we get any rain this morning, as things are quickly falling apart. We could have a small amount of energy to work with, but the clouds this morning will definitely hurt us.

EDIT: Well, they were dying out, now they seem to pulsing back up. Interesting.