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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 7:30 am 
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The Sept QBO reading is in folks and it continues to drop.

August: -14.42
September: -15.28

When does it peak and begin to rise again is the question. How low does the QBO fall? In other news, over the last couple of weeks, ENSO 3.4 has been warming. The trade winds have weakened considerably to allow the warming to take place. The coolest SST's are still in region 1.2 along the South American Coast but right now, this potential La Nina is not looking all that impressive. The warming could be temporary of course, and cooling could certainly resume, but over the next 6-10 days, the models continue the idea of weaker trades.

Attachment:
nino34_anom_png_2c12effec30f40526b91b2406c1cf06d.png
nino34_anom_png_2c12effec30f40526b91b2406c1cf06d.png [ 21.45 KiB | Viewed 488 times ]


We'll just have to wait and see how things respond over the next month to really get a better handle on this. I'm literally torn between going colder or keeping my warmer SE ridge thoughts in play. It should be colder you would think with a strong -QBO and keeping that Nina at weak status or even below. We would be in good shape provided that we do see blocking and not a -PNA dominated winter. That is what I am not sure about yet. Decisions decisions.... Glad I'm not a trader or commodities person who'd need their call out in August. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:55 pm 
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tron777 wrote:
The Sept QBO reading is in folks and it continues to drop.

August: -14.42
September: -15.28

When does it peak and begin to rise again is the question. How low does the QBO fall? In other news, over the last couple of weeks, ENSO 3.4 has been warming. The trade winds have weakened considerably to allow the warming to take place. The coolest SST's are still in region 1.2 along the South American Coast but right now, this potential La Nina is not looking all that impressive. The warming could be temporary of course, and cooling could certainly resume, but over the next 6-10 days, the models continue the idea of weaker trades.

Attachment:
nino34_anom_png_2c12effec30f40526b91b2406c1cf06d.png


We'll just have to wait and see how things respond over the next month to really get a better handle on this. I'm literally torn between going colder or keeping my warmer SE ridge thoughts in play. It should be colder you would think with a strong -QBO and keeping that Nina at weak status or even below. We would be in good shape provided that we do see blocking and not a -PNA dominated winter. That is what I am not sure about yet. Decisions decisions.... Glad I'm not a trader or commodities person who'd need their call out in August. :lol:



Its tough talking weather atm, but i''ll give it shot. Agree NINA should stay neutral up to Dec. at least , models should have a good handle on anything stronger thereafter by the beginning of Nov. If SE ridge flexes during winter we'll need a -NAO IMO to keep things in check. That's the best I have atm :(

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:06 pm 
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Bgoney wrote:
tron777 wrote:
The Sept QBO reading is in folks and it continues to drop.

August: -14.42
September: -15.28

When does it peak and begin to rise again is the question. How low does the QBO fall? In other news, over the last couple of weeks, ENSO 3.4 has been warming. The trade winds have weakened considerably to allow the warming to take place. The coolest SST's are still in region 1.2 along the South American Coast but right now, this potential La Nina is not looking all that impressive. The warming could be temporary of course, and cooling could certainly resume, but over the next 6-10 days, the models continue the idea of weaker trades.

Attachment:
nino34_anom_png_2c12effec30f40526b91b2406c1cf06d.png


We'll just have to wait and see how things respond over the next month to really get a better handle on this. I'm literally torn between going colder or keeping my warmer SE ridge thoughts in play. It should be colder you would think with a strong -QBO and keeping that Nina at weak status or even below. We would be in good shape provided that we do see blocking and not a -PNA dominated winter. That is what I am not sure about yet. Decisions decisions.... Glad I'm not a trader or commodities person who'd need their call out in August. :lol:



Its tough talking weather atm, but i''ll give it shot. Agree NINA should stay neutral up to Dec. at least , models should have a good handle on anything stronger thereafter by the beginning of Nov. If SE ridge flexes during winter we'll need a -NAO IMO to keep things in check. That's the best I have atm :(


I completely agree with you in regards to the need for blocking. If we get a -PNA dominated winter then you know the SE Ridge will be in play. If you get a -NAO then it'll beat that ridge down to help us out. We may indeed need that sort of help. Only time will tell.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:10 am 
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tron777 wrote:
Bgoney wrote:
tron777 wrote:
The Sept QBO reading is in folks and it continues to drop.

August: -14.42
September: -15.28

When does it peak and begin to rise again is the question. How low does the QBO fall? In other news, over the last couple of weeks, ENSO 3.4 has been warming. The trade winds have weakened considerably to allow the warming to take place. The coolest SST's are still in region 1.2 along the South American Coast but right now, this potential La Nina is not looking all that impressive. The warming could be temporary of course, and cooling could certainly resume, but over the next 6-10 days, the models continue the idea of weaker trades.

Attachment:
The attachment nino34_anom_png_2c12effec30f40526b91b2406c1cf06d.png is no longer available


We'll just have to wait and see how things respond over the next month to really get a better handle on this. I'm literally torn between going colder or keeping my warmer SE ridge thoughts in play. It should be colder you would think with a strong -QBO and keeping that Nina at weak status or even below. We would be in good shape provided that we do see blocking and not a -PNA dominated winter. That is what I am not sure about yet. Decisions decisions.... Glad I'm not a trader or commodities person who'd need their call out in August. :lol:



Its tough talking weather atm, but i''ll give it shot. Agree NINA should stay neutral up to Dec. at least , models should have a good handle on anything stronger thereafter by the beginning of Nov. If SE ridge flexes during winter we'll need a -NAO IMO to keep things in check. That's the best I have atm :(


I completely agree with you in regards to the need for blocking. If we get a -PNA dominated winter then you know the SE Ridge will be in play. If you get a -NAO then it'll beat that ridge down to help us out. We may indeed need that sort of help. Only time will tell.



SSt regions the last couple weeks have warmed but expect that to reverse in the next 1-2 weeks as subsurface cooler waters have been building all summer should surface and traverse west. Still looking good for a weak La Nina .5-.8 during winter monthe imo
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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:47 am 
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Bgoney wrote:

SSt regions the last couple weeks have warmed but expect that to reverse in the next 1-2 weeks as subsurface cooler waters have been building all summer should surface and traverse west. Still looking good for a weak La Nina .5-.8 during winter months imo


Yeah, I've been in the weak to moderate Nina camp myself as of late. I like seeing the warming temporarily stop the cooling though because the more frequent "stops" if you will in regards to the cooling, the better chance we'll get a cold neutral or weak Nina status out of it which IMO should allow for the SE ridge to not be as strong. In theory that is how it should work anyway lol

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:14 pm 
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We've seen / heard about the snow in SW Canada and Montana. Well, more of the Rockies may get a decent snow early next week in Wyoming and Colorado. Perhaps Denver's first snowfall of the season? A warm pattern for us, but cold to get the snow and cold going NW of here. We hope that we can get some blocking to dislodge the cold so it doesn't stay warm for the next 3-5 months. :axe: With a -QBO your chances do go up and if this Nina can stay weak I also think that is critical. A moderate Nina would promote a warm and wet pattern for us but the cold would be confined to areas West of the MS River. The next month ought to be extremely interesting to see how our autumn pattern sets up. We know for the next week or two we are going to stay warmer than avg with only a few avg to below avg days mixed in. After mid October signs are there for a strong trough to deliver some 50 degree high temp type of cold with possible 30 degree lows. Does that occur and if so, does it last or is it in and out again? In other words are we repeating this -PNA pattern with only blips of +PNA or not? Stay tuned...

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:29 am 
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Yeah I still like our chances for a front loaded winter. The early start to winter out west to me is a clear signal that things are set in motion for colder than normal outbreaks, especially as we head deep into November.

Also, I think at some point in the last 2 weeks of the month we'll see our first official(CVG) frost.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:55 am 
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brightwx wrote:
Yeah I still like our chances for a front loaded winter. The early start to winter out west to me is a clear signal that things are set in motion for colder than normal outbreaks, especially as we head deep into November.

Also, I think at some point in the last 2 weeks of the month we'll see our first official(CVG) frost.


I've been seeing some signals on that as well. Cloud cover and wind of course usually helps to determine frost formation and how cold the city and CVG can get, but sometime after mid month, (Between the 15-22nd time frame) we could certainly see lows for a couple of nights dropping into the 30s by then (if you believe some of the GFS runs as of late).

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:21 pm 
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brightwx wrote:
Yeah I still like our chances for a front loaded winter. The early start to winter out west to me is a clear signal that things are set in motion for colder than normal outbreaks, especially as we head deep into November.

Also, I think at some point in the last 2 weeks of the month we'll see our first official(CVG) frost.

I agree about the frost and another thing we need is some decent rains to fall. If the ground is more on the lush side frost will form at a higher temp. I have seen frost in the upper 30's in some years with the ground lush for the time of year and have seen temps in the upper 20's and the ground dry and frost could not form. So always many things that you must look at including what Les mentioned before. In regards to an early winter and not sold yet for our part of the world but folks in the northern and central plains and upper midwest this could be true. Still plenty of time to look at that but if folks to our north and west start with a bang it usually seems to help us out unless we have a strong La Nina or El Nino which neither look likely this season.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:04 pm 
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It definitely looks like the Siberian snow cover is quickly building again this year like we've seen for the past 4 or 5 winters. The impacts on our winter are yet to be seen of course in regards to cold air supply and / or blocking.

Here is a comparison. Last year at this time is the first image followed by the current one. We are behind last year but still, it is building up quickly.

Last year:

Attachment:
ims2016278_alaska.gif
ims2016278_alaska.gif [ 19.47 KiB | Viewed 374 times ]


Current:

Attachment:
cursnow_alaska.gif
cursnow_alaska.gif [ 20.29 KiB | Viewed 374 times ]

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:33 am 
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I'm waiting on the October Euro / Jamstec runs but the CAN SIPS October run came out. Let's take a look! The below maps are 500 MB Heights only looking at the upper level pattern. Temps / Precip maps from long range climate models are okat to look at it, but from a forecasting standpoint, you'll find more usefulness in looking at 500 MB maps so that's what we are going to do here. You may also see this info for yourself off of the Tropical Tidbits website.

For December, we can see the tendency for a -EPO or a +PNA type of look with some ridging over the Western US, Canada, and Alaska. A little blocking as well in the arctic regions / Greenland but not a pronounced -NAO look. Not too bad looking actually for the Eastern US. We can work with that pattern in regards to cold and snow. This would be back the early start to winter call. November is similar looking in scope.

Attachment:
DecCanSips.png
DecCanSips.png [ 151.21 KiB | Viewed 358 times ]


For January, we transition into more of a gradient type of pattern with a =PNA and SE Ridge combo. Shades of 2007-2008 showing up here. We can do well in a gradient type of set up since the cold will be very close by. However, the warmth is as well. Look for a stormy pattern with a look like that in the upper levels with high impact precip events likely. Snow, ice, rain, etc is all possible including severe t-storms if it's a big enough Cutter. Any amount of blocking and storm track will alter things but from an upper level stand point, January looks to be a wild ride up and down type of pattern where all types of precip are possible. Again, we can work with this pattern.

Attachment:
JanCanSips.png
JanCanSips.png [ 157.05 KiB | Viewed 358 times ]


And finally for February, it's a terrible look. A disaster really with a strong pacific jet, major ridging and an all out torch. The cold would be locked up tight in Canada with a look such as this. But if you follow Nina climo, December is typically favored for cold and snow while February usually does torch esp if the Nina does get into moderate territory.

Attachment:
FebCanSips.png
FebCanSips.png [ 152.54 KiB | Viewed 358 times ]


In conclusion, please keep in mind when looking at these long range climate models that everything is smoothed out. Short term blocking events, quick pattern flips, etc are never going to be picked up. What you are looking at on those maps, is an average. A smoothed out, broad brushed look as a whole for each month.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:51 am 
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tron777 wrote:
I'm waiting on the October Euro / Jamstec runs but the CAN SIPS October run came out. Let's take a look! The below maps are 500 MB Heights only looking at the upper level pattern. Temps / Precip maps from long range climate models are okat to look at it, but from a forecasting standpoint, you'll find more usefulness in looking at 500 MB maps so that's what we are going to do here. You may also see this info for yourself off of the Tropical Tidbits website.

For December, we can see the tendency for a -EPO or a +PNA type of look with some ridging over the Western US, Canada, and Alaska. A little blocking as well in the arctic regions / Greenland but not a pronounced -NAO look. Not too bad looking actually for the Eastern US. We can work with that pattern in regards to cold and snow. This would be back the early start to winter call. November is similar looking in scope.

Attachment:
DecCanSips.png


For January, we transition into more of a gradient type of pattern with a =PNA and SE Ridge combo. Shades of 2007-2008 showing up here. We can do well in a gradient type of set up since the cold will be very close by. However, the warmth is as well. Look for a stormy pattern with a look like that in the upper levels with high impact precip events likely. Snow, ice, rain, etc is all possible including severe t-storms if it's a big enough Cutter. Any amount of blocking and storm track will alter things but from an upper level stand point, January looks to be a wild ride up and down type of pattern where all types of precip are possible. Again, we can work with this pattern.

Attachment:
JanCanSips.png


And finally for February, it's a terrible look. A disaster really with a strong pacific jet, major ridging and an all out torch. The cold would be locked up tight in Canada with a look such as this. But if you follow Nina climo, December is typically favored for cold and snow while February usually does torch esp if the Nina does get into moderate territory.

Attachment:
FebCanSips.png


In conclusion, please keep in mind when looking at these long range climate models that everything is smoothed out. Short term blocking events, quick pattern flips, etc are never going to be picked up. What you are looking at on those maps, is an average. A smoothed out, broad brushed look as a whole for each month.


Excellent discussion as usual. Wanted to add that those of us in the LES zones, only have to worry about a STRONG ENSO signal to mess up our snowy outlooks. Weak to moderate ENSO has little effect for our region on the lee side of the Great Lakes.
The above long range outlooks would be great for us, especially with lake waters well above average for this time of year. The south east ridge could also help us see a few Appalachian runners too.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:07 am 
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Hey there Jeff... the mild pattern is also going to help out the LES Zones too with well above avg SST's. All you need is a NW flow pattern and downwind of the Lake - Ba-Boom! Clipper patterns or a strong wound up system (on its backside) can usually help produce good LES events. We'll just have to wait and see if we can get some blocking to get the cold to pass over the Lakes instead of it being bottled up or deflected to our West.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:31 pm 
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ALERT: ***Possible +PDO Developing???***

See SST Anomaly maps below then read analysis and discussion.

Early August: 8/3

Attachment:
anomnight_8_3_2017.gif
anomnight_8_3_2017.gif [ 235.42 KiB | Viewed 333 times ]


Early September: 9/4

Attachment:
anomnight_9_4_2017.gif
anomnight_9_4_2017.gif [ 233.44 KiB | Viewed 333 times ]


Early October: 10/5

Attachment:
anomnight_10_5_2017.gif
anomnight_10_5_2017.gif [ 230.36 KiB | Viewed 333 times ]


Note the area on each map from the Gulf of Alaska / N Pacific region to the Coast of Western North America to North of the Hawaiian Islands. That horse shoe shaped region typically defines the phase of the PDO. You can easily see from all three maps that the area is warming. The value from the Univ of Washington remains neutral at 0.09 for July and 010 for August, The September reading is not available. If the trends continue and it does rise over the next couple of months, this could have large implications on the overall pattern. With La Nina's typically a -PDO is favored. More -PNA (West ridge / East trough) pattern like we have now... Not a +PDO with maybe some +PNA spikes like we had back over the summer? That would be very interesting wouldn't it. Not getting excited yet but a La Nina coupled with a -QBO but opposing forces at work with the +PDO? W God only knows what could happen this winter my friends. :D

So since 1950, I tried to see which winters had a weak Nina, -QBO, and +PDO.

1983-1984 Christmas 1983 coldest on record! Remember that one?
1984-1985 would have been but the QBO was not negative was weakly positive. January 1985 cold wave does come to mind.
2000-2001 - Nov 0.4" of snow at CVG. Dec was awesome as we nickeled and dimed our way to 8.5" of snow in December with a White Christmas. January only produced 4.,2" of snow with a couple of arctic attacks. February a torch +5.2 degrees and 0.7" of snow. March came in colder -3.3 degrees with 1.2" early in the month.
2005-2006 - 0.3" of snow in Nov with avg temps. December checked in with 7.3" of snow! The bulk of it fell during the first week with moderating temps in the 2nd half. January had a mega torch and very wet. +11.4 degrees and only 1.1" of snow. February had 4.6" snow. Winter ended with a bang with a 4.2" event on 3/21.
2016-2017 would have been a match but the QBO was way positive if you recall and not negative. Bad winter of course. Howling Pac Jet.

A small sample size with mixed results. The patterns in most of those winters looked active with lots of precip. Varying precip types and storm tracks too. Look for a lot of hair pulling I think come this winter lol

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:19 am 
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Hey guys I wanted to point out something interesting that I was looking at yesterday according to Rutgers northern hemispheric snow cover is the most it’s been since 2000. I also like what I’m seeing stratosphere wise over the arctic zonal blocking positive anomalies are propagating nicely in response to the wave height amplification..I also checked zonal winds around the equator easterly Qbo is there but only at 30mb. At 50mb anomalous westerly zonal winds are already strengthening (maybe Qbo has already peaked ) At least I hope so


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:03 am 
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Phr0z3n wrote:
Hey guys I wanted to point out something interesting that I was looking at yesterday according to Rutgers northern hemispheric snow cover is the most it’s been since 2000. I also like what I’m seeing stratosphere wise over the arctic zonal blocking positive anomalies are propagating nicely in response to the wave height amplification..I also checked zonal winds around the equator easterly Qbo is there but only at 30mb. At 50mb anomalous westerly zonal winds are already strengthening (maybe Qbo has already peaked ) At least I hope so


Hey there Phr0z3n! I always love reading your posts / thoughts on the long range stuff. The strongly -QBO was always a wildcard in terms of how negative it gets and when does it peak. Sept reading was down to -15.28 on the ESRL site and I'd be thrilled if it peaked and did not drop any further. When you get way positive or way negative, the outcome for us usually is not good. Anything in that -5 to -10 range would be perfect for SSW's to occur and to allow for a weaker PV. Last year, we had the early snow cover build up, but the QBO was so positive that the PV got very strong and we never did get much in the way of cold air as it stayed on the Siberian side of the globe and we got the strong PAC Jet out of it. Maybe this year it'll be different. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:01 am 
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Another burst of easterlies coming up.


Attachment:
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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:08 am 
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NEW October run of the Euro Monthlies has been leaked out on Twitter., To save me the time from posting all of the temps / precip maps for the upcoming winter, please go to this link via Twitter to see them.

https://twitter.com/meteologix/status/9 ... 9760710657

Well above avg precip for the entire winter is shown for the OV with slightly above avg temps as a whole. Typical La Nina gradient pattern with a cold north / warm southern US and a SE ridge signal. We can do well with this set up provided the fact that we get lucky on a few storms. Odds at getting a monster are there along with mixed bag / ice events as well.

Definitely a front loaded winter and warmer 2nd half for Feb and March.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:23 pm 
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tron777 wrote:
NEW October run of the Euro Monthlies has been leaked out on Twitter., To save me the time from posting all of the temps / precip maps for the upcoming winter, please go to this link via Twitter to see them.

https://twitter.com/meteologix/status/9 ... 9760710657

Well above avg precip for the entire winter is shown for the OV with slightly above avg temps as a whole. Typical La Nina gradient pattern with a cold north / warm southern US and a SE ridge signal. We can do well with this set up provided the fact that we get lucky on a few storms. Odds at getting a monster are there along with mixed bag / ice events as well.

Definitely a front loaded winter and warmer 2nd half for Feb and March.

If this were to hold true, which we know it won't be exact this far out, we would be in line for accumulating snow Dec and Jan. I love the look of those precip maps. It would be active, that's for sure, with rain and/or snow. Even average temps for Jan with that precip map would give us some fun times the first half of winter. This far out, who knows if this is even remotely correct.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:52 pm 
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dce wrote:
tron777 wrote:
NEW October run of the Euro Monthlies has been leaked out on Twitter., To save me the time from posting all of the temps / precip maps for the upcoming winter, please go to this link via Twitter to see them.

https://twitter.com/meteologix/status/9 ... 9760710657

Well above avg precip for the entire winter is shown for the OV with slightly above avg temps as a whole. Typical La Nina gradient pattern with a cold north / warm southern US and a SE ridge signal. We can do well with this set up provided the fact that we get lucky on a few storms. Odds at getting a monster are there along with mixed bag / ice events as well.

Definitely a front loaded winter and warmer 2nd half for Feb and March.

If this were to hold true, which we know it won't be exact this far out, we would be in line for accumulating snow Dec and Jan. I love the look of those precip maps. It would be active, that's for sure, with rain and/or snow. Even average temps for Jan with that precip map would give us some fun times the first half of winter. This far out, who knows if this is even remotely correct.


I'm with you and I completely agree with the pattern being shown for the first half of the winter is workable. Our snowfall esp South of I-70 can sometimes be generated by 1 or 2 moderate to big sized storms so I'd take my chances with that look being shown for Dec and Jan any day, any time. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:06 pm 
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Saw the post of the new Euro weeklies and no doubt a La Nina look but also notice that there is a Southeast ridge but also a southwest ridge that may be stronger. I will need to look what this may mean to us but I believe stormy conditions look better than normal but where these storms set up is the million dollar question. Plenty of time to look at this but at least we are talking about it.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:23 pm 
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tpweather wrote:
Saw the post of the new Euro weeklies and no doubt a La Nina look but also notice that there is a Southeast ridge but also a southwest ridge that may be stronger. I will need to look what this may mean to us but I believe stormy conditions look better than normal but where these storms set up is the million dollar question. Plenty of time to look at this but at least we are talking about it.


That is going to be KEY right there. If we do see any ridging over the western us at all, if it is strong, then our downstream trough would be equally as strong and therefore the SE ridge could get beaten down a tad. However, if that does not happen then more of a trough west / ridge east pattern with the SE Ridge would occur. The Pacific pattern is always critical each and every year to our success or failure and this year is no different. We have things arguing for cold just as we have things arguing for warmth. What will be the primary pattern driver is the question and I'm just not all that sure yet. Right now, the developing La Nina is driving the bus and also the tropics continue to drive that ridge over the Eastern US. No changes there for the next couple of weeks at least.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:41 am 
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I see a typical La Nina winter. I think it will be a quick start to winter with a colder than normal November and December, and a warmer than normal January and February. I think temps for the entire winter will average above normal and snowfall below normal. That being said, I think we have the potential to see a big one in December, a pre-Christmas Christmas 2004 redo, possibly breaking our double digit snow storm drought. I'm expecting most of our snow to come from late November to early January. After that we get nickeled and dimed with some backside snows for the remainder of January and very little snow to speak of in February. I predicted 19.7 inches of snow for the season in the contest, but I may lower that slightly. I really hope that is wrong!


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:32 am 
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Anyone's call has a good chance at being correct since it's only October 10th. :D I love hearing everyone's thoughts whether they are good or bad or snow lovers. It's good to get a feel for what our talented forecasters on this forum think. I continue to see 2007-2008 being tossed around with an epic gradient pattern but I posted previously as to why it isn't a good analog and that is because of the strength of the Nina that year. Now if we do see 2007-2008 all over again but set up that gradient further to the south and east then oh my... we'd get crushed with snow. :P Of course we cannot expect that realistically to occur though.

In all seriousness, I've been on board the early winter train myself and I do believe that we'll see a flip to colder weather sometime in November (not sure when yet). December also looks good with temps warming some in January and I do expect a torch for February as you'd typically see with a Nina. Those have kind of been my generic thoughts for a long time now. I want to change4 them to pinpoint things / timing a little more but I am holding off as I want to see more data come in.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:13 pm 
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Good news concerning La NINA . http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp ... atest.html

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