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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 5:54 pm 
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tpweather wrote:
Les I am with you that it could be a sudden shift to cooler weather when the tropics settle down. That looks to be down the road though and yes it will cool down over the next few days but rebound quickly next week. Blocking is so key in getting cold to stay around in this part of the world. Like you mentioned too early for any kind of forecast but this fall may seem like last fall as its for different reasons and I believe the winter will also have a different outcome but to what extent is up in the air. I still believe last winter was one of the worse ones I have seen since the early 70's.


Maybe not one of the mildest I have experienced living here but snowfall wise, one of the worst for sure. Well we have one thing going for us, it should be better than last year's disaster LOL

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:37 am 
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ENSO Update as of yesterday from the Aussies. Next update is October 10th. It definitely looks like an East based Nina is coming to me. The intensity is of course yet to be determined.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:53 am 
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Hey Les and others...What does an "east based" Nina mean? Not really asking what it means for us but I didn't know there were "types" of Ninas, using the word "type" for lack of a better term because of my ignorance. lol

When you get time...no rush. Thanks! :)

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:04 am 
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WxMom wrote:
Hey Les and others...What does an "east based" Nina mean? Not really asking what it means for us but I didn't know there were "types" of Ninas, using the word "type" for lack of a better term because of my ignorance. lol

When you get time...no rush. Thanks! :)


Great question, Gina and I will try and answer it as best I can. There are 4 different ENSO Regions. Region 1-2, Region 3, Region 3.4, and Region 4. Region 1-2 is the area closest to the South American coast. Region 3 is west of there, 3.4 is further to the west (where ENSO is typically classified and measured as an El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina. Then finally, region 4 is the Western Pacific.

See diagram below.

Attachment:
enso_regions.jpg
enso_regions.jpg [ 25.27 KiB | Viewed 420 times ]


You know about La Nina, El Niño, and Neutral I assume, but there are also different types of each of these. Since we know La Nina is developing, we'll stick with that. Anyway, the different types are based on where the SST anomalies are. East Based means, we have the coolest waters near the South American Coast in ENSO Regions 1.2. The rest of the regions would be closer to avg if not warmer then avg. Modiki means the Central Regions (3 and 3.4) are the coolest, and West Based would be Region 4, or the coolest waters would be in the West Pacific.

So if you understand that, look at the SST Anomaly image below, and you'll notice that the cooler waters are indeed in the Eastern ENSO regions near the South American Coast.

Attachment:
anomnight_9_25_2017.gif
anomnight_9_25_2017.gif [ 231.52 KiB | Viewed 420 times ]


Whether it stays East based, changes, as well as its intensity is all going to play into the upcoming winter. But hopefully this at least answers your question. There are many other players on the field besides the potential East Based La Nina but I tried to keep this post one sided so to speak to just answer your question only. The actual impacts of an East based Nina on our winter will depend on if its weak, moderate or strong. But we can worry about all of that stuff later.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:22 pm 
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Thank you, Les!!! I appreciate the graphic and your detailed explanation. I didn't know there were classifications like that. It makes sense. So, yes, it does beg the question...what does that mean for us and why? Lesson #2 at a later date. :)

One thing I am doing with my retirement free time is learning more!

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:51 pm 
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WxMom wrote:
Thank you, Les!!! I appreciate the graphic and your detailed explanation. I didn't know there were classifications like that. It makes sense. So, yes, it does beg the question...what does that mean for us and why? Lesson #2 at a later date. :)

One thing I am doing with my retirement free time is learning more!


You're welcome! That is exactly what we have to figure out. The placement of the coolest SST's is a big deal in terms of impacts to the CONUS for the winter. If this does turn into an East Based Nina (which is what s currently expected) then a trough in the West with a SE Ridge is likely to be the set up. However, the strength of the SE ridge and the trough axis will help to determine what side of the storm track we are on... snow or rain. With a tight temp contrast like this, (cold northern tier, and warm southern tier), you can bet on high precip events. I am very confident on an active winter with a lot of moisture. I just don't know where the storm track will set up. If you take 2007-2008, the SE ridge was too strong for us until March of 2008 when we finally cashed in. If you take the 07-08 set up and have a weaker SE ridge, we'd get buried instead of the Midwest. We'll just have to wait and see but that is kind of how my thoughts are trending at the moment.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:07 pm 
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Great! Thanks again. I will be hoping for a weak SE Ridge!! We are long overdue for a good winter. When was the last time we were ABOVE average in the snowfall department? Just a rhetorical question. No need to research unless anyone knows off the top of their head! lol

I like the sound of lots of moisture. Of course I want snow but I'll take any form of moisture in the winter. I just can't stand cold and dry.

Very interesting and I'm learning! :)

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:51 am 
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WxMom wrote:
Great! Thanks again. I will be hoping for a weak SE Ridge!! We are long overdue for a good winter. When was the last time we were ABOVE average in the snowfall department? Just a rhetorical question. No need to research unless anyone knows off the top of their head! lol

I like the sound of lots of moisture. Of course I want snow but I'll take any form of moisture in the winter. I just can't stand cold and dry.

Very interesting and I'm learning! :)


Off the top of my head, my guess is the 2013-2014 winter for above avg snow at CVG. It was the last good winter I remember anyway for us lol

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:12 am 
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A look at the Eurasian snow cover as it stands right now as well as how it compares to past years.

Attachment:
SnbowCover.png
SnbowCover.png [ 17.84 KiB | Viewed 374 times ]

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:10 am 
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For those who have heard 2007-2008 being tossed around, look at this. The SST's in Sept of 2007 showed a classic mod to strong Nina look.

Attachment:
anomnight_9_26_2007.gif
anomnight_9_26_2007.gif [ 226.76 KiB | Viewed 341 times ]


Now compare that with the SST map from 9/28 of this year. As you can see, all of the cold water is much closer to the equator. if we're going to see a moderate Nina this winter, we need to see a lot more blue on that map in the next month.

Attachment:
anomnight_9_28_2017.gif
anomnight_9_28_2017.gif [ 235.43 KiB | Viewed 341 times ]

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:48 am 
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Wow. Pretty significant difference. Thanks for digging that up!!!


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:05 pm 
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WxMom wrote:
Wow. Pretty significant difference. Thanks for digging that up!!!


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Thanks Gina... It would be so wonderful to keep this Nina at a weak state. A weaker SE ridge could definitely produce big dividends for us versus if the ridge was stronger. You know the drill, it's just too early to be very confident yet on the jet stream pattern.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:06 pm 
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nice observation Lester and wow I couldn't remember '07 being that strong but either way its not a bad thing because 07-08 was a pretty good year for your area. it wasn't for me. 07/08 08/09 were more ice than snow and marginal cold for me. no matter what state the La Nina ends up being its not going to be bad for your area but will affect me more than you.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:08 pm 
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Airwolf wrote:
nice observation Lester and wow I couldn't remember '07 being that strong but either way its not a bad thing because 07-08 was a pretty good year for your area. it wasn't for me. 07/08 08/09 were more ice than snow and marginal cold for me. no matter what state the La Nina ends up being its not going to be bad for your area but will affect me more than you.


07-08 wasn't good for Cincinnati at all until the March of 2008 storm dumped on us to save our winter. It was a banner year for the Midwest, Lakes areas since the storm track was mainly of the Lake Cutter variety., March 2008 was an Apps runner and our winter was saved. If it weren't for that storm, Cincy's snowfall would have only been around 6" for the season. :axe:

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:19 pm 
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tron777 wrote:
Airwolf wrote:
nice observation Lester and wow I couldn't remember '07 being that strong but either way its not a bad thing because 07-08 was a pretty good year for your area. it wasn't for me. 07/08 08/09 were more ice than snow and marginal cold for me. no matter what state the La Nina ends up being its not going to be bad for your area but will affect me more than you.


07-08 wasn't good for Cincinnati at all until the March of 2008 storm dumped on us to save our winter. It was a banner year for the Midwest, Lakes areas since the storm track was mainly of the Lake Cutter variety., March 2008 was an Apps runner and our winter was saved. If it weren't for that storm, Cincy's snowfall would have only been around 6" for the season. :axe:

07/'08 was pretty much a shit year for me. I went back and looked at my notes . December was cold with numerous small snow events but the rest of winter petered out and only had a 19" total snowfall for the year. 08/'09 was very similar it started out quite nice with the majority of the snow events coming in January instead of December but hardly nothing afterwards. only had 23" for that winter so not very good again.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:17 pm 
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Hopefully the Nina stays weak, but I am not ruling out moderate either. We'll see how things go over the next month.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:41 am 
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Here's an interesting read while you're having some coffee this morning. We talked about previously an East Based Nina, Central or Modiki, and West based. An East based Nina like what maybe developing this winter, could have higher implications of getting a -NAO. There is a paper out there that suggests that. The other types of La Nina's are more indicative to producing a +NAO. No clue yet for this winter, but I thought it was an interesting read nonetheless.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 014-2155-z

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:37 pm 
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tron777 wrote:
Airwolf wrote:
nice observation Lester and wow I couldn't remember '07 being that strong but either way its not a bad thing because 07-08 was a pretty good year for your area. it wasn't for me. 07/08 08/09 were more ice than snow and marginal cold for me. no matter what state the La Nina ends up being its not going to be bad for your area but will affect me more than you.


07-08 wasn't good for Cincinnati at all until the March of 2008 storm dumped on us to save our winter. It was a banner year for the Midwest, Lakes areas since the storm track was mainly of the Lake Cutter variety., March 2008 was an Apps runner and our winter was saved. If it weren't for that storm, Cincy's snowfall would have only been around 6" for the season. :axe:

07-08 was very nice for those of us who where in the Dayton area. I wound up with around 45 inches that winter. That was the year Wisconsin and the Great Lakes just kept getting hammered. Many areas received their yearly record for snowfall with many placed over 100 inches. In the Dayton area, during a 3 week period from the middle of February until our big March 8th snowstorm, I received 30 inches of snow.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:45 pm 
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dce wrote:
tron777 wrote:
Airwolf wrote:
nice observation Lester and wow I couldn't remember '07 being that strong but either way its not a bad thing because 07-08 was a pretty good year for your area. it wasn't for me. 07/08 08/09 were more ice than snow and marginal cold for me. no matter what state the La Nina ends up being its not going to be bad for your area but will affect me more than you.


07-08 wasn't good for Cincinnati at all until the March of 2008 storm dumped on us to save our winter. It was a banner year for the Midwest, Lakes areas since the storm track was mainly of the Lake Cutter variety., March 2008 was an Apps runner and our winter was saved. If it weren't for that storm, Cincy's snowfall would have only been around 6" for the season. :axe:

07-08 was very nice for those of us who where in the Dayton area. I wound up with around 45 inches that winter. That was the year Wisconsin and the Great Lakes just kept getting hammered. Many areas received their yearly record for snowfall with many placed over 100 inches. In the Dayton area, during a 3 week period from the middle of February until our big March 8th snowstorm, I received 30 inches of snow.



The Nina was stronger that winter so we shouldn't expect a similar result (I hope LOL) but that type of pattern a little further SE could be huge for both of our hoods. That's what the snow weenie in us both would want to have happen. :snowing: :weenie:

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:02 pm 
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Well whether it be a weak or moderate Nina one thing for sure there is going to be a lot of wishing going on in this thread. LoL

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:29 pm 
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Airwolf wrote:
Well whether it be a weak or moderate Nina one thing for sure there is going to be a lot of wishing going on in this thread. LoL


There is every year! :lmao:

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:28 pm 
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Up to 2 feet of snow in the mountains of Montana as winter kicks off there with a bang this year, Snow cover beginning to build boys and girls.

Attachment:
gfs_asnow_wus_12.png
gfs_asnow_wus_12.png [ 118.62 KiB | Viewed 271 times ]


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:44 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:01 pm 
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Not an exact match but...

Attachment:
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anomnight_9_30_2013.gif [ 205.29 KiB | Viewed 265 times ]


ILN climate data shows warm October that year as well with dry conditions and only 2 wet periods early and late in the month. Freeze occurred on 10/25 that year with a wet Halloween. CVG received almost an inch on 10/31. Highest temp 83 on 10/4.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:50 pm 
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Remember it well. Our Chinese friends got married on the 31st. The snow was the first their folks had seen. The snow was seen as a good sign. Our son was born two days after Christmas. A wintery end of December and January.

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