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 Post subject: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:45 pm 
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We're in mid July in the midst of summer, yet it is that time of year again where our annual Early Winter Thoughts thread is in full effect! It the time to track ENSO, the PDO, the QBO, blocking, long range climate models, snow and ice cover, etc etc as it pertains to our upcoming winter.

To begin, we are tracking ENSO Neutral conditions right now. There has been a lot of El Nino talk but so far, it has not yet materialized. Second, the PDO has been weakly positive but will it rise or fall? Third, after a record breaking stretch of a +QBO, it is now negative again and continuing to fall. what could that mean? There is cold air in Canada and the high arctic, and we know that since we've seen some blasts of cool air ourselves this summer. We've seen the persistent ULL over Southern and eastern Canada. We also know that the polar jet is further south right now than you'd typically see. Does that mean anything down the road? The CFS V2 is going cold and snowy while the last couple of Jamstec runs are starting to back off on the cold and snowy picture that the model showed back in the spring.

All of these questions and more will be answered in this thread. To start off, I will post the latest SST Anomaly image and we'll go from there together.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:52 pm 
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Yes we are headed for my favorite season. I do notice that there is some warm waters off the western coast of South America. We have not had enough months of warm waters across the pacific but really this is sort of the remains from the El Nino. Models are horrible of predicting an El Nino or La Nina so I pay little attention to them and just sort of look at the water temps each month.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:57 pm 
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The Aussies will be updating tomorrow but on their 7/4 article, they have removed the El Nino Watch and went with neutral.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:42 am 
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There you have it from the Aussies, ENSO Neutral for the rest of 2017 is their current call. Next update comes on 8/1.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:05 am 
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Some links for the long range climate models that we like to keep an eye on every so often:

CFS V2 - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=559

CAN SIPS - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=66

Jamstec - http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research ... tlook.html

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 12:15 pm 
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This is probably my favorite thread to visit. Enso neutral will be good for your area Lester. A modoki el-nino is most likely going to occur. the long range jma and cvs have been showing below temps as we get into Nov/Dec. I think we see more cold and snow in ohio valley and mid-atlantic areas this year. if you look back we have been above average as far as air temps for the first 6 months of the year. If I were a betting man Id say at the very least you will see an average winter as far as both snow and cold.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 12:19 pm 
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Airwolf wrote:
This is probably my favorite thread to visit. Enso neutral will be good for your area Lester. A modoki el-nino is most likely going to occur. the long range jma and cvs have been showing below temps as we get into Nov/Dec. I think we see more cold and snow in ohio valley and mid-atlantic areas this year. if you look back we have been above average as far as air temps for the first 6 months of the year. If I were a betting man Id say at the very least you will see an average winter as far as both snow and cold.


The CAN SIPS likes the idea of a Modoki El Nino but I'm going with ENSO neutral right now until we see exactly what happens. Warm ENSO Neutral is good for us I agree with that Charles. Hopefully we'll have better chances of seeing some blocking with the declining QBO. The PDO is a big wildcard as models seem to be split on whether it is positive or negative. We would like it to be positive to help promote a +PNA or a -EPO.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:26 pm 
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-QBO, solar minimum, and warm ENSO Neutral? I'll take my chances with that combo this winter and run! The IRI folks have updated for ENSO. See below.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:21 am 
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Time to get out of the Summer mode and get into Winter outlooks. At this point the East Winter killer, a very strong ENSO seems highly unlikely.

Sure would be nice to see some - NAO this Fall and Winter. NAO has been awol for the most part these past couple of years.

BTW the northern Ohio Valley is overdue for a crippling Winter storm. The last 3 occurred in 1913, 1950, and the last time was 1978. Snow belt in NE Ohio was pummeled in November of 1996,
with some 70 inches in spots.

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2015-16 My call 70-95 inches-Less then average. Actual amount 102
2016-17 Winter call 130-145+ inches. Total 116.2
2017-18 Winter call???? Coming soon.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:26 am 
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Hey Jeff! CVG is due also. Our last 10"+ snow was March of 2008. Been a long time coming! Last awesome winter was 13-14. Been crappy since then.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:34 am 
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tron777 wrote:
Hey Jeff! CVG is due also. Our last 10"+ snow was March of 2008. Been a long time coming! Last awesome winter was 13-14. Been crappy since then.


Having lived in South Jersey much of my life I can relate to a lack of awesome Winters, although I did see epic snows there the last few Winters, before moving to Chardon in 2012.

I was really lucky last Winter to see a lil above average snow in NE Ohio. Received some 116 inches(average is 111). Great since much of the Winter season was way above normal with temperatures.

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Chardon, a touch of Heaven just west of Phila. Pa. Annual snowfall average 111 inches.
2012-13--- 120.5 inches
2013-14 my call 125-150 Actual amount 149.4 inches 2014-15 my call 115-140+ Actual amount 104 inches
2015-16 My call 70-95 inches-Less then average. Actual amount 102
2016-17 Winter call 130-145+ inches. Total 116.2
2017-18 Winter call???? Coming soon.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:58 pm 
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A little ENSO update for you... No El Nino here or anytime soon based on this.

Attachment:
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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:48 am 
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The CFS V2 wants to give us a Weak LA Nina for the upcoming winter. The ENSO updates from this model continue to come in cooler and cooler with each run. I'm still going ENSO Neutral right now for the upcoming winter, but WARM Enso Neutral is possibly looking less likely. Cool ENSO Neutral maybe the correct way to go at this point. It's only August so much can change but I cannot ignore the trends from the past few months either.

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I am definitely no longer in any form of an El Nino. I am going with COOL ENSO Neutral and leaving the door open for a Weak Nina if the cooling really ramps up. Again too early to know for sure yet. The PDO is being forecast to remain neutral (as in either weakly positive or weakly negative) so really, a lot of neutral and mixed signals showing up right now folks. The QBO will be negative this winter so as long as it doesn't get too ought of hand in the negative range, that could be a good thing for a weaker PV that can be disrupted easier. Remember the raging +QBO from the past couple of winters. That was a contributing factor of a strong PV that did not get disrupted that easy. (It did a few times due to SSW events but not a lot). We'll take a look at the July QBO and PDO readings when they come out later this month as well as a peak at the CFS V2 and Jamstec long range model runs for the winter. Stay tuned! A current look at SST anomalies from 7/31 to end this post.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:42 am 
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The August run of the CAN SIPS model can be seen here.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=115

November looks decent with a nice +PNA, -EPO,-NAO type of pattern being shown with an Aleutian Low. If correct, an early season snow would be possible. For December, The PNA breaks down with a faster PAC JET however, blocking in Northern Canada and the NAO region still looks good (-NAO / -AO) with some ridging over TX and S. Plains. It's a workable pattern. January looks like a torch Nationwide with the Pac Jet ruling the pattern and the Alaskan Vortex from hell showing up. A nasty +NAO as well. For February, the -EPO / +PNA combo returns so we get some help from the Pacific side again for winter to return to the Eastern US. Zonal flow for March so probably wet and mild as Spring begins.

I wouldn't buy into any of it this early just posting on what the model is showing.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:46 am 
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The Aussies updated yesterday, their next update is in 2 weeks.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

ENSO neutral should come as no surprise. The question becomes do we achieve COLD NEUTRAL status (which I am going with) or do we cool even further for a weak Nina? We'll know in a couple more months! I'd love to see a +PDO but it's a -PDO configuration in the SST's (see last map I posted from 7/31 on SST anomalies). Thank goodness for the -QBO as long as it doesn't get too strong, that should help offset some of the possible negative effects from a -PDO and Cold ENSO neutral (provided these calls are correct of course).

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:56 am 
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tron777 wrote:
The Aussies updated yesterday, their next update is in 2 weeks.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

ENSO neutral should come as no surprise. The question becomes do we achieve COLD NEUTRAL status (which I am going with) or do we cool even further for a weak Nina? We'll know in a couple more months! I'd love to see a +PDO but it's a -PDO configuration in the SST's (see last map I posted from 7/31 on SST anomalies). Thank goodness for the -QBO as long as it doesn't get too strong, that should help offset some of the possible negative effects from a -PDO and Cold ENSO neutral (provided these calls are correct of course).


Les, we seen what happened last winter with the raging +QBO, what would happen with a raging -QBO?


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:11 am 
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WinterStormJoe wrote:
tron777 wrote:
The Aussies updated yesterday, their next update is in 2 weeks.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

ENSO neutral should come as no surprise. The question becomes do we achieve COLD NEUTRAL status (which I am going with) or do we cool even further for a weak Nina? We'll know in a couple more months! I'd love to see a +PDO but it's a -PDO configuration in the SST's (see last map I posted from 7/31 on SST anomalies). Thank goodness for the -QBO as long as it doesn't get too strong, that should help offset some of the possible negative effects from a -PDO and Cold ENSO neutral (provided these calls are correct of course).


Les, we seen what happened last winter with the raging +QBO, what would happen with a raging -QBO?


I personally don't like the QBO too strongly positive or too negative as the polar vortex usually gets too strong when that happens and it's tough for the cold air to get dislodged into the CONUS. Where the PV sets up shop is always key because you want it on our side of the globe anyway. A -QBO is best for blocking and I love it in that -5 to -10 range. I'd even take values to -15, but we don't want it any lower than that as it becomes too much of a good thing. I'm glad you asked this question too Joe because you reminded me of something. What's strange is that we are seeing the QBO tank rapidly at the 50 MB level (which you would expect) but at 30 MB it's still positive (because of the QBO being so positive for the last 3 years which has never happened before) so the effects of a -QBO this winter MIGHT BE DIFFERENT if the 30 MB level and 50 MB level aren't jiving if you will. I can't really say too much more about the QBO yet until we see how things progress this Fall. But I am going to caution everyone trying to forecast the upcoming winter... our usual season forecasting techniques don't always work because we're seeing things at various times that we've never seen happen before in the modern era of weather data and record keeping (basically since 1950). I like using some of the tricks and tips, but new ways to forecast also need to be explored and incorporated. We're always learning. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:19 am 
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The more that I look at things folks, the more I caution you using 2009-2010 as an analog. I know Bright, Tim, and myself have talked about it in the August thread but I would not do that if I were you. With the ENSO at neutral and cooling perhaps into a cool neutral phase, a possible -PDO, and -QBO ---- I think a blend of 09-10 and 07-08 are halfway decent. 07-08 was bad for us until the March of 2008 big one which saved our winter from a complete disaster. 09-10 was wall to wall awesome esp in February. So blend those two and we'd get a nice winter with big storm potential. Lots can and will change so just kind of talking from the hip right now. :lmao:

Let me also point out something that I have yet to discuss in this thread. The sun! We're at another solar minimum again. Current sunspot count is zero and in 2017, we've seen 56 days or 25% so far with no sunspots. This is per http://www.spaceweather.com/ -- You have to go back to 2009 to find anything close to this. 2009 exceeded expectations anyway when a massive 71% of days that year had no sun spot activity. A solar minimum and a -QBO can be beneficial for good blocking episodes if the other factors don't screw us over.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:30 am 
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tron777 wrote:
WinterStormJoe wrote:
tron777 wrote:
The Aussies updated yesterday, their next update is in 2 weeks.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

ENSO neutral should come as no surprise. The question becomes do we achieve COLD NEUTRAL status (which I am going with) or do we cool even further for a weak Nina? We'll know in a couple more months! I'd love to see a +PDO but it's a -PDO configuration in the SST's (see last map I posted from 7/31 on SST anomalies). Thank goodness for the -QBO as long as it doesn't get too strong, that should help offset some of the possible negative effects from a -PDO and Cold ENSO neutral (provided these calls are correct of course).


Les, we seen what happened last winter with the raging +QBO, what would happen with a raging -QBO?


I personally don't like the QBO too strongly positive or too negative as the polar vortex usually gets too strong when that happens and it's tough for the cold air to get dislodged into the CONUS. Where the PV sets up shop is always key because you want it on our side of the globe anyway. A -QBO is best for blocking and I love it in that -5 to -10 range. I'd even take values to -15, but we don't want it any lower than that as it becomes too much of a good thing. I'm glad you asked this question too Joe because you reminded me of something. What's strange is that we are seeing the QBO tank rapidly at the 50 MB level (which you would expect) but at 30 MB it's still positive (because of the QBO being so positive for the last 3 years which has never happened before) so the effects of a -QBO this winter MIGHT BE DIFFERENT if the 30 MB level and 50 MB level aren't jiving if you will. I can't really say too much more about the QBO yet until we see how things progress this Fall. But I am going to caution everyone trying to forecast the upcoming winter... our usual season forecasting techniques don't always work because we're seeing things at various times that we've never seen happen before in the modern era of weather data and record keeping (basically since 1950). I like using some of the tricks and tips, but new ways to forecast also need to be explored and incorporated. We're always learning. :)


Thanks Les, we are witnessing things we haven't seen before, the deep solar min that we may be going in to for a long period may make things interesting. But, no one really knows what/if any effects it will have?

Ha, I just saw you comment on the solar min...We must have been thinking the same thing at the same time. :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:35 am 
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WinterStormJoe wrote:
tron777 wrote:
WinterStormJoe wrote:
[

Les, we seen what happened last winter with the raging +QBO, what would happen with a raging -QBO?


I personally don't like the QBO too strongly positive or too negative as the polar vortex usually gets too strong when that happens and it's tough for the cold air to get dislodged into the CONUS. Where the PV sets up shop is always key because you want it on our side of the globe anyway. A -QBO is best for blocking and I love it in that -5 to -10 range. I'd even take values to -15, but we don't want it any lower than that as it becomes too much of a good thing. I'm glad you asked this question too Joe because you reminded me of something. What's strange is that we are seeing the QBO tank rapidly at the 50 MB level (which you would expect) but at 30 MB it's still positive (because of the QBO being so positive for the last 3 years which has never happened before) so the effects of a -QBO this winter MIGHT BE DIFFERENT if the 30 MB level and 50 MB level aren't jiving if you will. I can't really say too much more about the QBO yet until we see how things progress this Fall. But I am going to caution everyone trying to forecast the upcoming winter... our usual season forecasting techniques don't always work because we're seeing things at various times that we've never seen happen before in the modern era of weather data and record keeping (basically since 1950). I like using some of the tricks and tips, but new ways to forecast also need to be explored and incorporated. We're always learning. :)


Thanks Les, we are witnessing things we haven't seen before, the deep solar min that we may be going in to for a long period may make things interesting. But, no one really knows what/if any effects it will have?


Exactly Joe. You're right. We truly don't know and all we can do is speculate the best we can and if we mess up a call to learn from it and see what went wrong. Even the best long range forecasters this winter are going to have a tough time getting it right. I know this gets said every year but with neutral signals it is even more true this year then ever. What's going to happen coming off a 3 year +QBO and remember last year's Nino hangover? Things are cooling back off now so how's that going to impact our pattern in a few months? That's what we're discussing and trying to figure out lol As usual, it'll be fun! :D

EDIT: We should always be looking and trying to learn about the sun. It drives our climate and patterns so if you can't understand the sun, you won't understand weather very well. :axe:

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:29 am 
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The sun drives our climate. Les that is a perfect sentence. The more we learn about how it affects us the better. Yes the oceans on earth is like a holding place for the heat and depending how much solar energy is thrown out will determine how the oceans and atmospheres work together to balance out that energy across the earth.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:48 am 
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tpweather wrote:
The sun drives our climate. Les that is a perfect sentence. The more we learn about how it affects us the better. Yes the oceans on earth is like a holding place for the heat and depending how much solar energy is thrown out will determine how the oceans and atmospheres work together to balance out that energy across the earth.


Good morning Tim! Well said! You can't understand one until you understand the other kind of thing. So once we can better understand the sun, then we can understand the oceans and work from there as to how both interact to shape our weather patterns across the globe. Sounds simple doesn't it? But it isn't and we've only scratched the surface in the last 10-20 years. We have come a long way but have much more to learn. But that's what keeps us coming back for more.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:13 pm 
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I have been thinking about the way our weather patterns have seemed to get stuck the past year or so. To my unschooled prospective, the past several seasons have seemed to get stuck in a pattern where ridges and troughs set up and don't move much. Years ago it seemed the waves would move across the country and we watched the plains to see what was coming in a week or so. Now, what is in the plains, pretty much stays in the plains for weeks if not months.

So, in my opinion, as you have said, the energy from the sun is the energy input that causes the patterns to move, sort of like the engine of a car causes the car to change speeds. If the sun is not inputting as much energy, than the pattern slows down. Besides the lack of sunspots, the solar wind has slowed down and we are getting more cosmic radiation as the solar wind helps build our protective magnetic shield so to speak. I also read an article that the sun is changing at and below the surface as detected by changes in sound waves coming from the sun. The article said the sun is going into its middle age and the scientists were not sure what changes were occurring and what the impacts were going to be.

I remember Rich A. and Josh discussing the sun and the lack of knowledge and data from years past and how it tied into global warming or not. Sorry for the ramble.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:43 pm 
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Wxlrnr wrote:
I have been thinking about the way our weather patterns have seemed to get stuck the past year or so. To my unschooled prospective, the past several seasons have seemed to get stuck in a pattern where ridges and troughs set up and don't move much. Years ago it seemed the waves would move across the country and we watched the plains to see what was coming in a week or so. Now, what is in the plains, pretty much stays in the plains for weeks if not months.

So, in my opinion, as you have said, the energy from the sun is the energy input that causes the patterns to move, sort of like the engine of a car causes the car to change speeds. If the sun is not inputting as much energy, than the pattern slows down. Besides the lack of sunspots, the solar wind has slowed down and we are getting more cosmic radiation as the solar wind helps build our protective magnetic shield so to speak. I also read an article that the sun is changing at and below the surface as detected by changes in sound waves coming from the sun. The article said the sun is going into its middle age and the scientists were not sure what changes were occurring and what the impacts were going to be.

I remember Rich A. and Josh discussing the sun and the lack of knowledge and data from years past and how it tied into global warming or not. Sorry for the ramble.



It's not a ramble at all Linn and it's an outstanding post by you! :D We've been seeing less solar output from the sun and less solar radiation over the past several years and I have also noticed weather patterns taking longer to change then say 5 to 10 years ago. You're not alone in seeing these observations and I also agree that the sun is playing a big role in this. More research and learning needs to be done most certainly but I agree 100% with your post.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:39 pm 
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Wxlrnr wrote:
I have been thinking about the way our weather patterns have seemed to get stuck the past year or so. To my unschooled prospective, the past several seasons have seemed to get stuck in a pattern where ridges and troughs set up and don't move much. Years ago it seemed the waves would move across the country and we watched the plains to see what was coming in a week or so. Now, what is in the plains, pretty much stays in the plains for weeks if not months.

So, in my opinion, as you have said, the energy from the sun is the energy input that causes the patterns to move, sort of like the engine of a car causes the car to change speeds. If the sun is not inputting as much energy, than the pattern slows down. Besides the lack of sunspots, the solar wind has slowed down and we are getting more cosmic radiation as the solar wind helps build our protective magnetic shield so to speak. I also read an article that the sun is changing at and below the surface as detected by changes in sound waves coming from the sun. The article said the sun is going into its middle age and the scientists were not sure what changes were occurring and what the impacts were going to be.

I remember Rich A. and Josh discussing the sun and the lack of knowledge and data from years past and how it tied into global warming or not. Sorry for the ramble.

This is a great post. I have been talking about this for years on this forum and other forums that Les is on. I am a stalker of Les lol. My biggest problem in forecasting as always been what affects the sun has on our short term forecast but mainly long term. I believe the energy is thrown our way and the earth stores that energy by the means of the 70p/c plus of oceans on the planet. I believe the earth is always doing a balancing act and that is never easy at all. Believe its something I really want to look at once I am retired because when you know very little about a subject its always good to at least give it a shot. I have been very lucky to find the weather forums over the past ten years or so and not only are the folks great but my knowledge of the weather has went way up and that is because of the folks letting the old man talk and talk and talk.


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