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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:43 pm 
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Bgoney wrote:


If that is correct, I like it a lot! :D The Aussies have also updated their views on ENSO today and they seem to agree with the article that you posted Bgoney. :thumbsup:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

EDIT: The real kicker is how much of that cooler sub surface water can actually be upwelled to the surface? -3 degrees C is pretty decent, but if it never makes it to the surface than it'll have little impact in our weather this winter.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:58 pm 
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IMO it won't be enough to get it to moderate status of 3 tri-monthlies of greater than .7 . May reach one possibly 2 but I sure don't see more than that

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:05 pm 
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Bgoney wrote:
IMO it won't be enough to get it to moderate status of 3 tri-monthlies of greater than .7 . May reach one possibly 2 but I sure don't see more than that

I agree and if so then I believe a weak La Nina is the way to go. Another reason I am leaning to a really nice winter around here.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:15 pm 
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Bgoney wrote:
IMO it won't be enough to get it to moderate status of 5 tri-monthlies of greater than .7 . May reach one possibly 2 but I sure don't see more than that


It is possible but like you said very difficult. Weak status is probably the way to go. It's funny though because regardless of the status, to me the atmosphere is acting like a Nina right now as we speak. Let's hope that -PNA breaks sometime in November. It should since this Nina does not look to get out of hand. -QBO should help also especially if it's peaked (which we don't yet know for sure). I am also curious to see if the PDO can rise more into positive territory as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:17 pm 
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Good Afternoon and a few more thoughts as we head towards winter. Next week I expect to see temps below zero over the interior parts of Alaska. This is not unusual but its maybe a little earlier than normal. Some snow falling over parts of Alaska today.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:17 pm 
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tpweather wrote:
Bgoney wrote:
IMO it won't be enough to get it to moderate status of 3 tri-monthlies of greater than .7 . May reach one possibly 2 but I sure don't see more than that

I agree and if so then I believe a weak La Nina is the way to go. Another reason I am leaning to a really nice winter around here.


I'm trying to lean that way also Tim, but you know how I am. I am late to the party sometimes, but I always have my reasons why. Too may unknowns yet for me.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:29 pm 
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tron777 wrote:
Bgoney wrote:
IMO it won't be enough to get it to moderate status of 5 tri-monthlies of greater than .7 . May reach one possibly 2 but I sure don't see more than that


It is possible but like you said very difficult. Weak status is probably the way to go. It's funny though because regardless of the status, to me the atmosphere is acting like a Nina right now as we speak. Let's hope that -PNA breaks sometime in November. It should since this Nina does not look to get out of hand. -QBO should help also especially if it's peaked (which we don't yet know for sure). I am also curious to see if the PDO can rise more into positive territory as well.



If i'm reading these right , the current QBO and 10 days out , looks like its forecast to slightly weaken , so maybe it has peaked?


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:31 pm 
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tron777 wrote:
tpweather wrote:
Bgoney wrote:
IMO it won't be enough to get it to moderate status of 3 tri-monthlies of greater than .7 . May reach one possibly 2 but I sure don't see more than that

I agree and if so then I believe a weak La Nina is the way to go. Another reason I am leaning to a really nice winter around here.


I'm trying to lean that way also Tim, but you know how I am. I am late to the party sometimes, but I always have my reasons why. Too may unknowns yet for me.

Les I agree there are many things that need to happen for my forecast to pan out. Two things last year caused a bust for many and that was a El Nino Hangover which you need more than a few aspirin to get over those affects. The 2nd and really more important was the unbelievable snowfall further south on the other side of the globe. Yes there was plenty of snow in Siberia but it was further south that got hit really hard and continued most of the winter. I had not seen a winter like that in sometime and I hope we get the balancing act this year. Off to a good start out west but we need to see plenty of snow in the northern plains,rockies and southern Canada over the next 4-6 weeks and I will be much happier. I am still not sold on the earlier winter. I consider anything before Dec 15th an early winter around here.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:54 pm 
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Bgoney wrote:
tron777 wrote:
Bgoney wrote:
IMO it won't be enough to get it to moderate status of 5 tri-monthlies of greater than .7 . May reach one possibly 2 but I sure don't see more than that


It is possible but like you said very difficult. Weak status is probably the way to go. It's funny though because regardless of the status, to me the atmosphere is acting like a Nina right now as we speak. Let's hope that -PNA breaks sometime in November. It should since this Nina does not look to get out of hand. -QBO should help also especially if it's peaked (which we don't yet know for sure). I am also curious to see if the PDO can rise more into positive territory as well.



If i'm reading these right , the current QBO and 10 days out , looks like its forecast to slightly weaken , so maybe it has peaked?


There is indeed a chance that it has peaked. You are reading things correctly. But I would use caution and let's let a little more time go by just to make sure. You know how things go in weather, is it a blip or did the QBO peak and it's beginning to rise once again? I think we need to see what it looks like come early to mid November and then we should definitely know for sure by then. If it has, then our odds of an early start to winter, or at least front loaded should occur.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:03 pm 
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tpweather wrote:
tron777 wrote:
tpweather wrote:
Bgoney wrote:
IMO it won't be enough to get it to moderate status of 3 tri-monthlies of greater than .7 . May reach one possibly 2 but I sure don't see more than that

I agree and if so then I believe a weak La Nina is the way to go. Another reason I am leaning to a really nice winter around here.


I'm trying to lean that way also Tim, but you know how I am. I am late to the party sometimes, but I always have my reasons why. Too may unknowns yet for me.

Les I agree there are many things that need to happen for my forecast to pan out. Two things last year caused a bust for many and that was a El Nino Hangover which you need more than a few aspirin to get over those affects. The 2nd and really more important was the unbelievable snowfall further south on the other side of the globe. Yes there was plenty of snow in Siberia but it was further south that got hit really hard and continued most of the winter. I had not seen a winter like that in sometime and I hope we get the balancing act this year. Off to a good start out west but we need to see plenty of snow in the northern plains,rockies and southern Canada over the next 4-6 weeks and I will be much happier. I am still not sold on the earlier winter. I consider anything before Dec 15th an early winter around here.


To add - The insanely and long lasting +QBO also screwed us over in addition to everything else that you mentioned. We had the raging PAC Jet from hell and that was that. So far, the Pac Jet looks ot get active once again but the background state is vastly different versus last year. Yes, we have a developing La Nina and it should be weak like last year. QBO is negative and not massively positive so that is a big difference. Snow cover in Siberia is building perhaps faster than last year but I would expect the outcome to be different.

The differences in SST's are way different too. If you look at last year around this time versus our current SST picture, the N Pac in 2016 was warmer with a ribbon of cold water along the West Coast. This year, it isn't as warm but we have warm water along the West Coast, not cold. Second, in the La Nina area in 2016, the colder waters were much further to the West (Central based to West based weak Nina) and the colder SST's are further eastward this year. That is a huge difference and a better one for snow lovers in the East. Finally, around Greenland last year we had colder waters and this year, warmer. That should help to not allow for such a +NAO as we saw last winter (really the past few winters). We'll see... nothing is exact in weather but you'd think based on this post alone, this year should be way better than last year lol

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:40 am 
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Recall last winter was officially classified as a weak Nina, albeit barely. If you look at the ONI values on this table, last year we had our first Nina ONI value for the month of August. That continued thru December before rising so we had 5 months in a row and thus a weak Nina. That makes sense. Look at this year. So far thru September NO OFFICIAL NINA ONI VALUE HAS OCCURRED AS OF YET.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... ONI_v5.php

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:12 pm 
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Once we get past this Augtober I think we see an average November and then a December to remember.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:05 pm 
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Airwolf wrote:
Once we get past this Augtober I think we see an average November and then a December to remember.


I'm feeling good about December as well, especially if November comes in avg or below avg. A warm November, now I'd be concerned about December for sure, but since it's only October we don't have to worry about too much over the next 4-5 weeks. After that, we really need to examine how things look to get a true feel on the pattern and how it's evolving as we head into late fall.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:31 pm 
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Powerful eruption of Sheveluch volcano in Russia, ash up to 34 000 feet above sea level. Read that the ash could eventually get to 49,000 feet. Could this be another player in the Winter weather pattern?

https://watchers.news/2017/10/11/shevel ... kamchatka/

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:47 am 
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snowbo wrote:
Powerful eruption of Sheveluch volcano in Russia, ash up to 34 000 feet above sea level. Read that the ash could eventually get to 49,000 feet. Could this be another player in the Winter weather pattern?

https://watchers.news/2017/10/11/shevel ... kamchatka/


I heard about this one and I do know that there can be a difference when you're talking about impacts on the overall pattern when they are a northern volcano like this one in Russia versus a southern volcano like the Mt., Agung one, When you get an eruption, sometimes no impact to the pattern is seen but at other times, there are impacts. The level of the eruption is a huge part: VEI 5, VEI 6, etc. you'd at least need to have a big one like that or you won't really notice much. Second, you may not see impacts this winter but the following one. Mt. Pinatubo in 1992 did not really impact the winter pattern until the 93-94 winter as an example. So basically, it's a wait and see game here but something most certainly to keep an eye on.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:48 am 
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The October run of the Jamstec is out. A weak Nina based on the ENSO graph below is what it's predicting.

Attachment:
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The below precip map looks good still for a Nina winter so I have no argument there.

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The temp map seems to be a lot warmer look then you'd expect with a Weak Nina. I agree with a cold West or NW, Rockies / N Plains and I also agree with a warm SE US with the SE ridge being a factor, I totally agree with that but the warm anomalies seem to be covering a lot more real estate then I would expect. We'll see what happens!

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:27 pm 
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The UKMET Seasonal Model also updated today for it's October run. This model doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It shows a warm pattern with a lot of precip but the pattern gets better as the winter progresses along. That is more of how an El Nino works not a La Nina lol So I don't necessarily buy this. But, you can review the maps for yourself and draw your own conclusions. Above avg precip the entire time is about the only thing that makes a lot of sense to me.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/c ... s/ens-mean

Next up is the December snowfall outlook from the POAMA model. It shows a classic moderate Nina with the snowfall output shown below. Very 2007-2008 like. Well... I think that is probably wrong there also. Weak Nina for sure I could see but moderate? This Nina had better get moving fast.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:10 am 
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Jisao PDO index for Sept rose to +0.32. Streak is now 45 consecutive months

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:13 am 
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CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 12 October 2017 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch Synopsis: La Niña conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18. During September, ENSO-neutral conditions were reflected in near-to-below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño indices were volatile during the month, with negative values increasing to near zero during the past week in the Niño-4, Niño-3.4, and Niño-3 regions (Fig. 2). In contrast, sub-surface temperature anomalies were increasingly negative during September (Fig. 3), reflecting the shallow depth of the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Also, convection was suppressed near the International Date Line and enhanced near Indonesia (Fig. 5). Over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, low-level trade winds were anomalously easterly and upper-level winds were anomalously westerly. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral, although edging closer to La Niña conditions. For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Niña is favored in the dynamical model averages of the IRI/CPC plume (Fig. 6) and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) (Fig. 7). Several models indicate a period of near-average Niño-3.4 values in the upcoming weeks, but then predict reinvigorated growth of negative SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing easterly wind anomalies across portions of the Pacific Ocean and the reservoir of below-average subsurface temperatures. In summary, La Niña conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 November 2017. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov. Climate Prediction Center National

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:18 am 
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Bgoney wrote:
Jisao PDO index for Sept rose to +0.32. Streak is now 45 consecutive months


A lot of people keep saying that the PDO is going negative because of this La Nina. I have yet to see it. I've made posts arguing the opposite that it could become positive! At this point, it's basically neutral but it most certainly is not negative. Sure, we will see this come to an end at some point and it will go back to being negative, but I am not yet seeing that happen.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:23 am 
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To review: Right now, we can say a weak La Nina is likely for the upcoming winter. There will be changes but right now I think we can say that with some level of confidence. A neutral PDO right now anyway with a -QBO. We are again seeing well above avg snow cover in Siberia for the month of October and that looks to continue thru the rest of the month. We also know that there is a weak correlation between that and the AO state. Some years that works, others it does not. For this year, blocking is favored due to the -QBO but we still cannot predict it very well past 2 weeks. Lots to keep our eyes on and I am seeing no all it torch signals and I am not seeing wall to wall cold either. I continue to lean towards weak Nina climo with an early start to winter, then a warm February and a cold March. Coldest month should be December as well as the snowiest month. To me, right now that is a safe call. It can and will change but until we see how November is going to shape up, I wont stray away from this idea right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:56 pm 
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Les we know its hard to get a cold winter that last the entire season. Even in the 70's with the extreme cold we were not cold the entire season. Getting cold in the Northwest territories and Yukon of Canada is a big plus and having the coldest air end up there is always a plus. Way too early for that but parts of northern Canada are getting snow over the weekend which is always good as they should remain below 32 for several months. Need to have that move south over the next 4 weeks or so. Again a weak La Nina is what I am counting on but I just have the cold delayed somewhat compared to you and others.


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:45 pm 
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tron777 wrote:
To review: Right now, we can say a weak La Nina is likely for the upcoming winter. There will be changes but right now I think we can say that with some level of confidence. A neutral PDO right now anyway with a -QBO. We are again seeing well above avg snow cover in Siberia for the month of October and that looks to continue thru the rest of the month. We also know that there is a weak correlation between that and the AO state. Some years that works, others it does not. For this year, blocking is favored due to the -QBO but we still cannot predict it very well past 2 weeks. Lots to keep our eyes on and I am seeing no all it torch signals and I am not seeing wall to wall cold either. I continue to lean towards weak Nina climo with an early start to winter, then a warm February and a cold March. Coldest month should be December as well as the snowiest month. To me, right now that is a safe call. It can and will change but until we see how November is going to shape up, I wont stray away from this idea right now.

I think it's always fun to look ahead to winter. It is our favorite time of the year for weather, at least for us snow lovers. I think trying to look ahead to the second half of winter at this point is, at best, virtually a crap shoot. Even the absolute best meteorologists have a very hard time with predicting the second half of winter. Alot of the time, even the first half of winter is tough. Most of the time even the next month is tough. For that matter, even the next 2 weeks can be tough. But that's what we do, as weather enthusiasts and human beings. We try to predict the weather. One day, maybe in my lifetime, we will be able to predict a couple of months in advance with relative accuracy. But we are not there yet. If I go with a cold February and warm March I probably have just as good a shot at being right. I hope we are both wrong and February and March both are the coldest months, respectively, on record. Lol!!!


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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:46 pm 
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tpweather wrote:
Les we know its hard to get a cold winter that last the entire season. Even in the 70's with the extreme cold we were not cold the entire season. Getting cold in the Northwest territories and Yukon of Canada is a big plus and having the coldest air end up there is always a plus. Way too early for that but parts of northern Canada are getting snow over the weekend which is always good as they should remain below 32 for several months. Need to have that move south over the next 4 weeks or so. Again a weak La Nina is what I am counting on but I just have the cold delayed somewhat compared to you and others.


I see more good signals for this winter than I do bad. I can see some warm times but I can see a solid 2-4 week period where wintry weather is favorable. That's really all it takes around here to make or break a winter. You hope for 4-6 weeks though haha

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 Post subject: Re: Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2017-2018
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:50 pm 
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dce wrote:
tron777 wrote:
To review: Right now, we can say a weak La Nina is likely for the upcoming winter. There will be changes but right now I think we can say that with some level of confidence. A neutral PDO right now anyway with a -QBO. We are again seeing well above avg snow cover in Siberia for the month of October and that looks to continue thru the rest of the month. We also know that there is a weak correlation between that and the AO state. Some years that works, others it does not. For this year, blocking is favored due to the -QBO but we still cannot predict it very well past 2 weeks. Lots to keep our eyes on and I am seeing no all it torch signals and I am not seeing wall to wall cold either. I continue to lean towards weak Nina climo with an early start to winter, then a warm February and a cold March. Coldest month should be December as well as the snowiest month. To me, right now that is a safe call. It can and will change but until we see how November is going to shape up, I wont stray away from this idea right now.

I think it's always fun to look ahead to winter. It is our favorite time of the year for weather, at least for us snow lovers. I think trying to look ahead to the second half of winter at this point is, at best, virtually a crap shoot. Even the absolute best meteorologists have a very hard time with predicting the second half of winter. Alot of the time, even the first half of winter is tough. Most of the time even the next month is tough. For that matter, even the next 2 weeks can be tough. But that's what we do, as weather enthusiasts and human beings. We try to predict the weather. One day, maybe in my lifetime, we will be able to predict a couple of months in advance with relative accuracy. But we are not there yet. If I go with a cold February and warm March I probably have just as good a shot at being right. I hope we are both wrong and February and March both are the coldest months, respectively, on record. Lol!!!


I keep seeing 07-08 being tossed around and 95-96. I think it's really close to 84-85 also. I don't have any data but I do remember the January of 85 cold wave.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_1985_cold_wave

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