Major Hurricane Ida

[tron777]

Please continue all TS Ida talk here, thanks! 60 mph winds as of 8am.

Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT FIND IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[tpweather]

Interesting system and of course we know on here that many times we hear about how a tropical system that heads over Cuba will lose its strength. That is true when it hits the eastern part of the country which has more mountains. The western part of the country is rather flat and usually these storms lose very much in strength. The GOM is really warm so getting this system to a CAT 3 looks very likely IMO.

[tron777]

Interesting system and of course we know on here that many times we hear about how a tropical system that heads over Cuba will lose its strength. That is true when it hits the eastern part of the country which has more mountains. The western part of the country is rather flat and usually these storms lose very much in strength. The GOM is really warm so getting this system to a CAT 3 looks very likely IMO.

Great post Tim! You are absolutely correct! It's more flat and has a lot of forests vs the Eastern part of the island. Yuc. Penn. is even more mountainous. So yeah, there isn't much holding this one back unless TS Nora in the Eastern Pacific influences it somehow as that system makes landfall in a few days over the Baja of California. Moisture from Nora should get injected into the SW US next week. For Ida, another thing is that there are 90 degree SST's along and off the LA Coast. This thing should be strengthening once it gets by Cuba and into the Gulf with no weakening expected until it hits LA. With the limited time it's going to have in the Gulf waters (about 36 hours as Bgoney said), that should act to not allow an eye wall replacement cycle to occur which could act to weaken it a little bit. I do not see that happening in this scenario.

[tron777]

Visible loop of Ida... A very nice center has developed this morning.

Idavisibleloop.gif

[tron777]

[tron777]

So far guys... siding on the higher side of the intensity guidance is staying ahead of the modeling. Like the call still of a major (Cat 3) at landfall. I hope we don't see a 4, but wouldn't shock me if we did to be quite honest.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND WESTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 82.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

[tron777]

Intensity forecast has gone up from the NHC as you would expect. Not good...

INIT 27/1500Z 20.7N 82.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24H 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[tron777]

You can clearly see an eye now on Grand Cayman radar before it leaves that site and you'd have to find a link for Cuba or something. Anyway... I would expect a hurricane on the next update to be honest. Also want to mention that the center is on the eastern side of model guidance. However, that doesn't mean the storm will track further to the east, esp if it gets very strong, Usually the stronger ones, build more of a ridge to their NW so they track more NW. We don't have any troughs coming down either to scoop it up until the system is well inland and makes the turn towards TN or SKY. Just posting somethings I am seeing today. No changes to my call attm. Still going with a Cat 3 with a NOLA landfall or close to it.

[tron777]

We've got a cane folks!

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
115 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Ida has strengthened into a hurricane as it approaches the
Isle of Youth, Cuba. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to
be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

A sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust of 60 mph (96 km/h)
were recently reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba.


SUMMARY OF 110 PM EDT...1710 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[tron777]

Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA MAKES LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ON THE ISLE OF YOUTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 82.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF THE CENTER OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 145 MI...245 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[tron777]

12Z Euro finally getting a clue coming in stronger with Ida to better match the other models and what we basically have already known.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro finally getting a clue coming in stronger with Ida to better match the other models and what we basically have already known.

Euro has never done well with Hurricanes and that continues once again. You would expect the Euro to do better in colder weather and usually that model does better in the winter though last year was a little suspect but will see in about 3 months or so.

[tron777]

12Z Euro finally getting a clue coming in stronger with Ida to better match the other models and what we basically have already known.

Euro has never done well with Hurricanes and that continues once again. You would expect the Euro to do better in colder weather and usually that model does better in the winter though last year was a little suspect but will see in about 3 months or so.

Euro used to do well actually Tim. The last storm that the Euro got right first before any other model was Sandy. Since Sandy though, yeah... the Euro has been in the dumpster for sure. That last upgrade IMO made it even worse.

[tron777]

80 mph now as of 5pm. Cat 4 anyone?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.1N 83.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.1N 89.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 91.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.5N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[cloudy72]

It almost appears Ida is strengthening over western Cuba!! What is she going to do over the super warm eddys in the gulf? Quite concerning!

[tron777]

Good call imo by the NHC to go with a 4;

[MVWxObserver]

Prayers with those folks in LA and MS.

[tron777]

Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 85.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

[Bgoney]

First big test for NOLA with all the improvements on the levy systems and pumping facilities since the pre pathetic preparations of Katrina hit. Storm surge probably won't be as bad as Katrina, but bad enough. Winds probably will be stronger though

[tron777]

105 mph winds as of 8pm.

[Bgoney]

Ida a cat 4 and flirting with 5

[tpweather]

What a rapid increase overnight and like Bgoney we are dealing with a strong cat 4 approaching a 5. Katrina was a cat 3 when it hit years ago but it was the flooding from the lake that caused the major problems. This system is stronger so the impact will be greater in terms of winds and yes there will be flooding but hopefully they have fixed some of the problems.

[tron777]

Wow! Did she explode overnight or what??? That's exactly what the concern was. Don't see any reason for weakening either prior to landfall.

[Bgoney]

Awesome sat images

ZCJqtUQ.gif

And lightning