How can we get screwed out of a snowstorm again? Refer to the above post and also the brand new 18z NAM. These southward trends are getting concerning.

The 18z GFS is up to it's antics again. No way this happens. It's been consistent on placement, however. It does reflect the possibility of a really good deform band setting up somewhere across AV land. We will see if the short range models start to pick up on the deform band as we get closer.

The Euro looks pretty good. This definitely has potential in a narrow area. Les, you talk about threading the needle quite a bit. Here's one of those storms. Someone in AV land is going to be in the eye of the needle!

KDAY 2/5 - 2/9:

Mon: -2 48/28 -2

Tues: +2 48/28 +4

Wed: +3 54/29 Nailed!

Thur: +4 58/38 Nailed!

Fri: +7 58/44 +8

I don't know. The 14th-20th look pretty cold to me. Yes, Canada is warm at the moment, but Alaska is very cold. There is a lot of cold air on our side of the globe. It's just bottled up in Alaska at the moment. If we see this blocking develop, just like in January after no cold was to be found in Ca...

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 8:01 pm Near Mammoth Lakes CA, sweet dreams



IMG_1360.jpeg

I love how they word that. Snow showers. As if there are going to be breaks in the precipitation. Can't they just say snow?

Trev its great to have different outlooks. I know Les and I once in awhile have different opinions on the certain storms or longer term outlooks and its funny how much of the time the weather is between those two outcomes. That may be the case here as well. Tim, I like you more bullish call on a ch...

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:29 pm

dce wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 3:26 pm KDAY 1/29 - 2/2:

Mon: +1 36/32 +1

Tues: -2 37/30 +2

Wed: +1 40/32 +3

Thur: 49/34

Fri: 41/33

Congrats on the Thur low, Doug!

At least we both got one!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:58 am KDAY week of 1/29/24 - 2/2/24

Mon: +1 36/34 -1

Tues: -3 38/32 Nailed the Low!

Wed: +1 40/32 +3

Thurs: 48/32

Groundhog Day: 44/34

I've been close, but not quite. Good job on the Tuesday low!

And the GFS at the end of its run. A snowstorm in Mexico.

KDAY 1/29 - 2/2:

Mon: +1 36/32 +1

Tues: -2 37/30 +2

Wed: +1 40/32 +3

Thur: +3 49/34 Nailed one!

Fri: +6 41/33 -4

I believe that someplace in Northwest Ohio and Eastern Indiana is going to get a thump of snow tonight. Something like 2-4 inches. It's impossible to forecast this and impossible to know how wide or narrow this stripe of snow will be, but I think there will be a narrow band of a 2-4 inch type thump.

I continue to be encouraged that the MJO continues to truck along stronger than models have been predicting. Today or tomorrow at the latest we should be in phase 7. Who knows if it continues into phase 8, stalls out, or dies out. Time will tell.

Seasonal Snowfall.png KDAY has had 7.5 inches to date so there, technically speaking, should be a darker blue around that area. But I'm sure this is a very good representation of what has occurred. Dayton is only a little over 5 inches below normal for the season so it's not impossible to still get...

Somebody just got Nam'ed.

Tim, the NAM has caught onto your idea. A little north and west for our liking, but hopefully it's seeing air that is just cold enough.

The GFS is certainly the most bullish on rain to snow this weekend. Not saying it's right because the other models haven't jumped on board. The atmosphere is teetering between plain ole rain and a couple inches of wet snow. Tim touched on this threat. It may not materialize, but the atmosphere is oh...

Praying. God bless you and your family!

Agree with dce that upcoming pattern is what we saw in December/early January, the dreaded “marginal airmass pattern “ which the OV doesn’t usually do well for significant winter events. Looks for now to last well into the first week of February. After that , imo still depends on a favorable MJO fo...

Good Morning and it seems we dodged a bullet though a few places and of course sidewalks could have a thin layer of ice but by 9am most surfaces should be above 32. Doug was correct yesterday afternoon and the warming was greater than models were showing earlier and I thought temps would drop more ...

Long term and though we know wet and mild this week what happens once you get into the weekend and next week. Temps should still be milder than normal but not by much as we will be on the western edge of some colder air as a trough develops off to the east. Can we get snow in this pattern and yes b...

Looks like the warm air just may be winning out. Seems to be a little less of an ice threat compared to earlier.

18Z NAM continues to bring in the rain by 3am. It has surface temps of 34 by then. I think that is a smidge too warm. And as ILN says that is 6 feet off the ground so the actual surface would be cooler. 18Z RGEM isn't as nasty with the frz rain as the 12Z run because the rain takes a bit longer to ...

KDAY officially received 1.9 inches today and .3 inches yesterday for a storm total of 2.2

.12 inches of precip for that 1.9 inches of snow. Pretty high ratio.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:14 am

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:12 am I'm guessing the ratios up by I-70 where greater than 15:1 based on radar returns compared to actual snowfall measurements. We'll see.

How much do you have Doug?

My guess is around 2 inches here in Huber heights.