Hadn’t looked at the hi-res NAM until now . Needless to say it echos NAM severe parameters, but shows supercells developing late afternoon (5ish) in cvgland before an evolving squall line races in late evenin Sunday

12Z NAM is still suggesting that the main show is in that 11pm to 1am range for us overnight Sun night. Some big time severe parameters from the NAM , from late afternoon through late evening. We’ll lose some cape if things hold off until dark but still looks to be in the 1500-2000 range, the rest ...

Wonder what the percentile chance (SPC) for tornadoes e.g. will be come Sun ...? That, at least for myself, is the biggest concern. I saw a few days ago an article via Accuweather or Weather Underground where Ohio e.g. leads the country in tornadoes this year. :o CSU goes out a bit further with per...

Still 50/50 for the Indy500 atm. Looks like there will be windows of opportunity to get it in. I believe an official race is around a hundred miles or roughly 90 minutes. I think that is doable

Much of Ohio/Indiana will be welcoming that rain by Sunday as by then it will have been a week since appreciable rain has fallen for a good chunk of that region

I think models from yesterday did a good job with this evenings organized storms staying to our south , with just an isolated shower in our southern counties

The outlook for Sunday, Day 4 from the SPC: day4prob.gif As usual , how much convection dominates early in the day will determine how extensive severe chance will be. Looking at the parameters at this stage , I’m hoping we get plenty of early day showers, otherwise it could get ugly in our region

Totals so far this week. Once you get away from counties bordering the river , not much in the way of soaking rains.

Still early , but models have remained very consistent for a severe threat for Sunday. Here’s what SPC is saying atm, Day 5/Sun - Ozarks to the Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys A synoptically concerning pattern is evident on Sunday across a broad region of the central U.S. The upper trough from the Day 4/...

Good Morning Les and nice little batch of energy moving through the local area this morning. Mostly light rain but with how much moisture is available somebody may get a quick downpour. We will see what happens later today and we should recover from any action this morning but will the energy be fu...

12z Gfs showing Sunday about as ugly as it gets with showers/storms all day long. No thank you

Seems to be fairly good agreement for our first chance of precip returning for Wednesday. The familiar weakening or dissipating line of showers early morning, then , a mix of clouds and sun the rest of the day before late evening or overnight storm chances

Agreed Tim and it was nice to not be in the jackpot zone for once. Had to put some Seven Dust and some slug pellets out on some of the garden plants this morning. It's been good for those kinds of critters to flourish with the wet ground and mild nights we've been having. Grass is soaked due to the...

At least we’re in a spot where if showers do develop, they are moving fairly quickly, unlike SE Ohio where under the low , movement is slow or training

Good morning folks! Another rainy morning in progress for parts of the area including the Tri-state. 0.32" so far at CVG for the event total. Glad to see the HRRR was dead wrong. We shall see how much we can muster up today! Thurs is still dry but Fri looks like another wet one esp in the afte...

HRRR , for the moment, has shifted those 3-4”+ amounts to SE Indiana. Theme here from the HRRR is somewhere near Cvgland there is going to be a gulley washer

Hrrr Is adamant that a sump pump watch will be issued later this evening. Showing a 4 hr (7-11pm) period where someone in cvgland gets 4+” during that span.

Plenty of saturated soils for a good chunk of the region , so count me out of the it can keep raining club. It’s wasted water until we can dry out . Virtually been a whole week now that farmers haven’t been able to get into the fields, and not much hope for that to change anytime soon , so the upcom...

.60” in 20 minutes

That would be one heck of a low track for mid May , that the EU has for late next week.

SPC doesn’t think the warm front makes it past Lou/Lex , if that far north the way they have trimmed the severe boundaries

You just never know with these warm fronts, they have a mind of their own much like cutoff lows. Models are throwing darts blindfolded in regards to low/warm-front positions for later. Another interesting weather day to watch unfold

Checking in with exactly 3” in the last 24hrs. By far the highest 24hr period of qpf for mby in many years. Awesome! Glad your area was able to cash in for a change. :) It's been a long time coming for sure. To add a little side note, last year from May onwards to November , I didn’t have one 24 hr...

Checking in with exactly 3” in the last 24hrs. By far the highest 24hr period of qpf for mby in many years.

There is very little agreement from models for the track and speed of the low for this evening, which will determine exactly how far north heavy rains return to our area. No doubt another now cast kind of day